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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
57 years old
Male
Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Joined: 12-February 10
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Viewing Topic: August 18, 2017 Storms MidAtl/NE
Local Time: Aug 19 2017, 08:29 PM
27,419 posts (10 per day)
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Undertakerson

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16 Aug 2017
While most of the tropics attention is currently in the Atlantic basin (with good cause for many, I admit), a look at the Trop Pac region shows the recurve of Typhoon Banyan. As we know from our TR observations, such recurve leads to an E US trough in the day 7-10 time pd

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As acknowledged in the Extended Disco from WPC

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 19 2017 - 12Z WED AUG 23 2017

...PATTERN OVERVIEW/GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN
U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A TROUGH CROSSING THE EAST WILL LIFT
AWAY AFTER THE WEEKEND WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE STEADILY EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA.
THIS TROUGH SHOULD AMPLIFY SOME AS IT REACHES EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA, LIKELY COVERING THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOWER 48
BY DAY 7 WED. BEYOND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL
CANADA AND NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. OVER MORE SOUTHERN LATITUDES ENERGY
ROUNDING THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO A TROUGH/UPPER
LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A RETROGRADING ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL RAISE HEIGHTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.

BASED ON MODELS/ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE 12Z/18Z CYCLES THE MOST
CONTENTIOUS PART OF THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE PORTION OF THE
FEATURE REACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION SHOULD INCLUDE A
CONTRIBUTION FROM RECURVING TYPHOON BANYAN
PLUS INPUT FROM
UPSTREAM NORTHERN PACIFIC FLOW AND HIGHER LATITUDE ALASKA FLOW.
AMONG THE AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS THE FASTER 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BECOME
ONE OF THE LESS LIKELY BY DAY 7 WED AS THE GENERAL EVOLUTION
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW SHOULD HOLD BACK TROUGH TIMING
SOMEWHAT. AT THE SAME TIME THE SLOWER GFS HAD BEEN SOMEWHAT
FASTER IN EARLIER RUNS. THE 12Z CMC (PERHAPS WITH EXCESSIVE
AMPLITUDE) OFFERS A COMPROMISE. THERE IS ENOUGH COMPLEXITY IN THE
OVERALL TROUGH EVOLUTION AND LACK OF CLEAR TRENDING IN THE ECMWF
MEAN AND SLOWER GEFS MEAN THUS FAR TO FAVOR A COMPROMISE AMONG THE
NON-12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WITH THE NEW 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/CMC IN,
THE LATTER TWO NUDGED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN WITH THE GFS
REMAINING SLOWER/MORE CLOSED.


So, it's no shock that the global models are reflecting that in their medium to long range time period. 6z GFS Operational run, for example.

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Even for the warm time period, a 12-16 anom in surface temps will be noticeable to most.

I don't have Euro surface temp maps but the 850mb view reflects a similar outcome.

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I would imagine the cool down would be preceded by a front passage and even though the air mass out in front is not overly hot, the contrast in temperature should help aide other dynamic aspects and lead to a decent outbreak of storms near or at severe level
18 Jul 2017
Interesting battle zone situation unfolding in the region. Delineated by the Mason Dixon boundary, some areas down in VA/MD/DE could see century mark values for highs and the overnight lows appear to remain above average as well. Up into PA/NJ, there is lesser heat but still meet criteria of a HW

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So, what about New England? Appear to be spared, for the most part - though could be humid still in the lower NE regions.


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The spine of the Apps, at the lower end of the MidAtl - now, that's some sizzle right there.
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6 Jun 2017
I guess we don't talk about coastal storms that travel inside the 40/70 benchmark, unless they can deliver snow. sad.gif

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Of course, good ol (sometimes progressive) GFS does not agree

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Euro seems to favor the GFS version - but hooks it back in (?)

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NAVGEM corollary, anyone?

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CTPAFD barely mentions anything - must be ignoring the UKIE, I suppose.
30 May 2017
I'm not too impressed with the set up, nor the dynamics - but I guess it's possible. (*shrugs*)


QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
409 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-310815-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
409 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and large
hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible between noon and 6 pm
today. An isolated weak, short-lived tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong winds and hail are
possible Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
15 May 2017
Looks like we have a one week window of warmth for the region. Still a touch below average today, but tomorrow through Thursday go HOT, calming back a bit for the weekend before the cooler (than average) temps make a run at us near 5-22/23.

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QUOTE
Model spread and resulting forecast uncertainty ramps up
Fri-Sun, revolving around timing and southern reach of a back
door cold front.


Frontal passage Friday, followed by a return of warm front late
in the weekend
ahead of a surface low tracking west of PA.
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