Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

5 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Jan 8-9 Birthday Threat, Have your snow & eat it!
markj138
post Jan 1 2018, 05:27 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





Might as well start up a thread for this one as there is nothing else to track until this threat
this is still way out there so lots can change between now & then,here is the 18Z GFS just to give an idea of where we sit right now

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png ( 191.34K ) Number of downloads: 5


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png ( 198.1K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by markj138: Jan 1 2018, 06:54 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 1 2018, 05:40 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,786
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





Yep, this has been lurking in the models for a few days. Time to board the roller coaster again!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 1 2018, 05:42 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 1 2018, 05:40 PM) *
Yep, this has been lurking in the models for a few days. Time to board the roller coaster again!


It is nice having this cold & snow around but i am getting bored plus this cold is brutal !
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 1 2018, 05:44 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





Here is the 12Z Euro which changes over to rain

Attached File  3.png ( 141.75K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  4.png ( 137.32K ) Number of downloads: 3


Attached File  1.png ( 141.16K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by markj138: Jan 1 2018, 05:47 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
robv1989
post Jan 1 2018, 05:49 PM
Post #5




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 244
Joined: 24-December 12
From: Stoney Creek / Hamilton
Member No.: 27,389





This falls on my birthday lol, what sort of storm would this be? Texas or Colorado low?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Jan 1 2018, 05:57 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,998
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 1 2018, 05:42 PM) *
It is nice having this cold & snow around but i am getting bored plus this cold is brutal !

Lol, I'm the opposite. Keep this snow cover going as long as possible as far as I'm concerned tongue.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Jan 1 2018, 06:06 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 918
Joined: 16-January 13
Member No.: 28,061





Im on board for this one. I think it comes in right when the pattern changes from the cold one and goes to one of more moderation with better storm chances. I think this storm could be a good one.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 1 2018, 06:19 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,786
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





This has lots of potential...looks like it starts out as a clipper, then taps into moisture from a low to the south...this could easily go coastal if the high moves out of the way too quickly though.

Be nice to have a decent storm at the end of this spell...got real lucky today here in Barrie, no one really saw a 15cm squall coming in...looks awesome outside, but otherwise a very dull cold period coming up.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 1 2018, 06:37 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





QUOTE(robv1989 @ Jan 1 2018, 05:49 PM) *
This falls on my birthday lol, what sort of storm would this be? Texas or Colorado low?


Oh we need you in here for good luck haha
looks like a Colorado low with a clipper coming through Ontario at the same time,both merge & BOOM!! well not quite BOOM but the potential might be there.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 1 2018, 06:40 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 1 2018, 05:57 PM) *
Lol, I'm the opposite. Keep this snow cover going as long as possible as far as I'm concerned tongue.gif


It so COLD though,we need some moderation or we wont get any more storms up this way!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 1 2018, 06:43 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 1 2018, 06:06 PM) *
Im on board for this one. I think it comes in right when the pattern changes from the cold one and goes to one of more moderation with better storm chances. I think this storm could be a good one.


Yep,could be a period like we had leading up to Christmas,what the models are showing Jan 8-15 are kind of like what we where looking at back on Dec 16-17 which turned out to be that nice run of snow from Dec 20-25
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
robv1989
post Jan 1 2018, 06:49 PM
Post #12




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 244
Joined: 24-December 12
From: Stoney Creek / Hamilton
Member No.: 27,389





QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 1 2018, 06:37 PM) *
Oh we need you in here for good luck haha
looks like a Colorado low with a clipper coming through Ontario at the same time,both merge & BOOM!! well not quite BOOM but the potential might be there.



That sounds exciting, hope it pans out for everyone we've had a lot of great snow so far in southern ontario but not really a major storm just yet, I'm not too crazy for the extreme cold we've been experiencing but I like the pattern around my birthday a lot more, between 0 and -5 c is perfect.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 1 2018, 06:55 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





QUOTE(robv1989 @ Jan 1 2018, 06:49 PM) *
That sounds exciting, hope it pans out for everyone we've had a lot of great snow so far in southern ontario but not really a major storm just yet, I'm not too crazy for the extreme cold we've been experiencing but I like the pattern around my birthday a lot more, between 0 and -5 c is perfect.


Yeah this cold is a pain other than it keeping the current snow around.........i re named the thread Birthday Threat haha
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
robv1989
post Jan 1 2018, 09:12 PM
Post #14




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 244
Joined: 24-December 12
From: Stoney Creek / Hamilton
Member No.: 27,389





QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 1 2018, 06:55 PM) *
Yeah this cold is a pain other than it keeping the current snow around.........i re named the thread Birthday Threat haha


Sounds good to me, i'll be 29 this year so calling for 29 cm 😂
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 2 2018, 12:26 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





QUOTE(robv1989 @ Jan 1 2018, 09:12 PM) *
Sounds good to me, i'll be 29 this year so calling for 29 cm 😂

Lets go big! 29 cm sounds good to me....we do have a little work to do yet though,here are the 0Z CMC & GFS,a little further SE and we would be all snow

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png ( 175.34K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png ( 179.78K ) Number of downloads: 2
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 2 2018, 06:15 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,786
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





GFS has seperated the systems in this mornings run, looks more like the 21-23rd December storm. Looking very good up this way with strong lake enhancement for the clipper.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Jan 2 2018, 12:17 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 918
Joined: 16-January 13
Member No.: 28,061





Storm continues to be shown to various degrees on the assorted models. CMC tracks a bit NW and has a change to rain for S ON while the GFS shows a slightly colder but more disorganized system for the lakes. At this time Id lean more toward the CMC stronger storm solution as it would just make sense with how things are turning around that time. Models are and will continue to do there normal shifting but I think this storm has the potential to be quite good for many areas.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Jan 2 2018, 03:03 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,998
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





I sincerely hope we can avoid a change over to rain down here. It would truly suck to lose some or all of our snowcover right behind another shot of cold air. Push south!


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Jan 2 2018, 03:26 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 915
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 2 2018, 03:03 PM) *
I sincerely hope we can avoid a change over to rain down here. It would truly suck to lose some or all of our snowcover right behind another shot of cold air. Push south!

Bad news for southern Ontario, from the 12Z, Jan 2nd, GFS text forecasts. Temps will be hitting melting point as of 7:00 AM on the 8th. Wonder what happens by the afternoon. That's as far as the forecasts currently go. They come out every 12 hours, approx 1:30 AM and PM. Here's the latest...

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
12Z  2JAN 2018  CYXU   CYKF   CYHM   CYYZ   CYOW   CYUL   CYQB
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp
                 Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F
  108 01/07 00Z   -4     -9     -7     -3    -20    -17    -15
  111 01/07 03Z   -6     -6     -7     -3    -22    -21    -19
  114 01/07 06Z   -5     -7     -6      0    -24    -24    -22
  117 01/07 09Z    4     -6      1      0    -25    -25    -23
  120 01/07 12Z   14     10     11     13    -20    -25    -24
  123 01/07 15Z   17     14     14     16     -8    -14    -18
  126 01/07 18Z   21     20     20     21      4     -2    -12
  129 01/07 21Z   24     22     25     26     10      4     -9
  132 01/08 00Z   28     26     28     28     13      7     -9
  135 01/08 03Z   30     30     31     32     18     11     -6
  138 01/08 06Z   31     31     33     33     25     15     -2
  141 01/08 09Z   32     31     33     34     30     19      3
  144 01/08 12Z   33     32     33     34     31     23      8

CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 2 2018, 04:04 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





12Z Euro looked like this............

Attached File  post_13767_1514919715_thumb.png ( 381.19K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  post_13767_1514919722_thumb.png ( 390.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  post_13767_1514919729_thumb.png ( 386.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


still a longggggggggggggg way to go yet.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

5 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 24th September 2018 - 11:18 AM