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> Jan 10 to 13 mostly rainfall event, Bye bye snowpack
knorthern_knight
post Jan 6 2018, 01:48 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
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It looks like over a half inch of rain (12 mm+), mixed with snow-lovers' tears sad.gif , along the Quebec-Windsor corridor. Temperatures look to get into the upper 40's F, flisrting with 50. It'll probably also affect further east, but that's currently past the end of the current forecast range. Note that the GFS text forecast only goes out to 144 hours. There's more to come as it gets within range. Please don't shoot the messanger.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  114 01/10 18Z   31     30    0.03 -FZRN   31     22    0.0  0.03
  117 01/10 21Z   35     35    0.04 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.07
  120 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.09
  123 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.11
  126 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.13
  129 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.12 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.25
  132 01/11 12Z   37     37    0.04 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.29
  135 01/11 15Z   39     39    0.06 -TSRA   39     37    0.0  0.35
  138 01/11 18Z   41     41    0.06 -TSRA   41     37    0.0  0.41
  141 01/11 21Z   40     40    0.14 -TSRA   42     40    0.0  0.55
  144 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.00 -RA     42     37    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  114 01/10 18Z   29     27    0.01 -FZRN   29     19    0.0  0.01
  117 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.02 -RA     33     30    0.0  0.03
  120 01/11 00Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     30    0.0  0.04
  123 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.05
  126 01/11 06Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.06
  129 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.07 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.13
  132 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.05 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.18
  135 01/11 15Z   40     40    0.02 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.20
  138 01/11 18Z   43     43    0.10 -RA     43     38    0.0  0.30
  141 01/11 21Z   44     44    0.13 -RA     45     43    0.0  0.43
  144 01/12 00Z   41     41    0.00 -RA     45     41    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  117 01/10 21Z   34     33    0.05 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.05
  120 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.07
  123 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.08
  126 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.10
  129 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.07 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.17
  132 01/11 12Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.20
  135 01/11 15Z   42     41    0.01 -RA     42     39    0.0  0.21
  138 01/11 18Z   47     44    0.13 -RA     46     39    0.0  0.34
  141 01/11 21Z   49     46    0.07 -TSRA   49     46    0.0  0.41
  144 01/12 00Z   41     41    0.03 -RA     49     41    0.0  0.44

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  117 01/10 21Z   33     31    0.01 -RA     33     30    0.0  0.01
  120 01/11 00Z   36     35    0.02 -RA     36     30    0.0  0.03
  123 01/11 03Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.04
  126 01/11 06Z   37     36    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.05
  129 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.05 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.10
  132 01/11 12Z   39     38    0.05 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.15
  135 01/11 15Z   41     40    0.01 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.16
  138 01/11 18Z   44     42    0.14 -RA     44     39    0.0  0.30
  141 01/11 21Z   46     44    0.05 -RA     46     44    0.0  0.35
  144 01/12 00Z   42     40    0.02 -RA     46     42    0.0  0.37

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  120 01/11 00Z   29     28    0.03 -PL     29     23    0.0  0.03
  123 01/11 03Z   34     34    0.05 -RA     34     29    0.0  0.08
  126 01/11 06Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     29    0.0  0.10
  129 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.11
  132 01/11 12Z   36     36    0.05 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.16
  135 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.09 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.25
  138 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.27
  141 01/11 21Z   39     39    0.20 RA      40     37    0.0  0.47
  144 01/12 00Z   41     41    0.07 -RA     41     37    0.0  0.54

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  123 01/11 03Z   31     29    0.01 -RA     31     26    0.0  0.01
  126 01/11 06Z   34     34    0.03 -RA     34     26    0.0  0.04
  129 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.05 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.09
  132 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.06 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.15
  135 01/11 15Z   37     37    0.11 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.26
  138 01/11 18Z   38     38    0.08 -RA     38     35    0.0  0.34
  141 01/11 21Z   38     38    0.10 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.44
  144 01/12 00Z   40     40    0.08 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.52

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  126 01/11 06Z   23     22    0.09 -SN     23     12    0.7  0.09    0.7
  129 01/11 09Z   28     27    0.06 -SN     28     23    0.4  0.15    1.1
  132 01/11 12Z   32     31    0.04 -FZRN   32     23    0.0  0.19
  135 01/11 15Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     32    0.0  0.21
  138 01/11 18Z   35     35    0.14 -RA     35     32    0.0  0.35
  141 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.06 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.41
  144 01/12 00Z   39     39    0.39 RA      39     35    0.0  0.80


This post has been edited by knorthern_knight: Jan 7 2018, 07:34 AM
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+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 6 2018, 07:45 AM
Post #2




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From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





Yep, snoweater. I think we will still have some of ours left aftewrads as we should have over 50cms by Wednesday, but this will create one giant soggy horrible mess, which will be frozen afterwards with little prospect of fresh snow to hide it and then there's the week afterwards which threatens more cutters...like I said in the winter thread, I expect to have lost all our snow by January 22nd. It's feeling a lot like a replay of last year, albeit a few weeks later.
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 6 2018, 08:20 AM
Post #3




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Posts: 915
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





CMC prog map at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html has the hour jump from 48 straight to 55 while stepping through. I think the following map is actually 120 hours (2018/01/11 00Z), not 126 hours (2018/01/11 06Z)...

Attached File  cmc120.png ( 74.8K ) Number of downloads: 6


This post has been edited by knorthern_knight: Jan 6 2018, 08:21 AM
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snowgeek93
post Jan 6 2018, 08:29 AM
Post #4




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From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





Had to happen sometime, still time for change I guess.

By the time this system rolls in though we will have had a solid month with snow on the ground here and only 3 days in that period without snow cover.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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+Quote Post
EOsnowmom
post Jan 6 2018, 08:31 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 791
Joined: 30-January 09
From: south of Ottawa, Ontario
Member No.: 17,244





Awk! Look at the freezing rain in eastern Ontario and up the valley. Looks like fun, said nobody.
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MrMusic
post Jan 6 2018, 10:03 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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Joined: 6-February 13
Member No.: 28,218





Looking at the overnight runs, both the CMC and GFS have me hitting 10 degrees.
Wonder if this track can adjust much between now and then?


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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markj138
post Jan 6 2018, 01:50 PM
Post #7




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Member No.: 20,461





Its ok guys after all the warmth & the rain the CMC says we build back are snow pack 2 days later.

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png ( 184.61K ) Number of downloads: 2
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 6 2018, 01:58 PM
Post #8




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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 6 2018, 10:03 AM) *
Looking at the overnight runs, both the CMC and GFS have me hitting 10 degrees.
Wonder if this track can adjust much between now and then?

Hamilton, Toronto, and Ottawa rain amounts are down a bit from the previous run; a good sign.


CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   99 01/10 15Z   31     31    0.01 -FZRN   31     26    0.0  0.01
  102 01/10 18Z   34     34    0.02 -RA     34     26    0.0  0.03
  105 01/10 21Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.04
  108 01/11 00Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.05
  111 01/11 03Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.06
  114 01/11 06Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.07
  117 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.06 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.13
  120 01/11 12Z   39     39    0.07 -RA     39     36    0.0  0.20
  123 01/11 15Z   39     39    0.05 -TSRA   39     39    0.0  0.25
  126 01/11 18Z   41     41    0.06 -TSRA   41     39    0.0  0.31
  129 01/11 21Z   44     44    0.09 -TSRA   44     41    0.0  0.40
  132 01/12 00Z   43     43    0.03 -TSRA   44     41    0.0  0.43
  135 01/12 03Z   43     43    0.01 -RA     43     42    0.0  0.44
  138 01/12 06Z   42     41    0.02 -RA     43     41    0.0  0.46
  141 01/12 09Z   38     36    0.00 -RA     42     38    0.0
  144 01/12 12Z   29     27    0.00 -SN     42     29    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  102 01/10 18Z   33     33    0.01 -RA     33     24    0.0  0.01
  105 01/10 21Z   35     34    0.01 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.02
  108 01/11 00Z   35     35    0.00 -RA     35     33    0.0
  111 01/11 03Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.01
  114 01/11 06Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.02
  117 01/11 09Z   36     36    0.05 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.07
  120 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.05 -RA     38     35    0.0  0.12
  123 01/11 15Z   40     40    0.04 -TSRA   40     38    0.0  0.16
  126 01/11 18Z   45     44    0.03 -TSRA   45     38    0.0  0.19
  129 01/11 21Z   48     46    0.09 -TSRA   48     45    0.0  0.28
  132 01/12 00Z   46     45    0.06 -TSRA   48     45    0.0  0.34
  135 01/12 03Z   45     45    0.01 -RA     47     45    0.0  0.35
  138 01/12 06Z   44     44    0.02 -RA     47     44    0.0  0.37
  141 01/12 09Z   41     40    0.01 -RA     44     41    0.0  0.38
  144 01/12 12Z   32     29    0.00 -SN     44     32    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  102 01/10 18Z   33     33    0.01 -RA     33     26    0.0  0.01
  105 01/10 21Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.02
  108 01/11 00Z   36     35    0.01 -RA     36     33    0.0  0.03
  111 01/11 03Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.04
  114 01/11 06Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.05
  117 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.08
  120 01/11 12Z   39     39    0.04 -RA     39     36    0.0  0.12
  123 01/11 15Z   43     41    0.03 -TSRA   43     39    0.0  0.15
  126 01/11 18Z   49     46    0.00 -RA     49     39    0.0
  129 01/11 21Z   51     46    0.01 -RA     51     49    0.0  0.01
  132 01/12 00Z   48     46    0.04 -TSRA   51     48    0.0  0.05
  135 01/12 03Z   48     47    0.01 -TSRA   48     47    0.0  0.06
  138 01/12 06Z   47     47    0.01 -RA     48     47    0.0  0.07
  141 01/12 09Z   44     43    0.03 -RA     47     44    0.0  0.10
  144 01/12 12Z   38     34    0.00 -RA     47     38    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  102 01/10 18Z   32     30    0.01         32     27    0.0  0.01
  105 01/10 21Z   34     34    0.01 -RA     34     32    0.0  0.02
  108 01/11 00Z   35     35    0.00 -RA     35     32    0.0
  111 01/11 03Z   36     35    0.00         36     35    0.0
  114 01/11 06Z   36     36    0.00         36     35    0.0
  117 01/11 09Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.02
  120 01/11 12Z   37     37    0.06 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.08
  123 01/11 15Z   40     39    0.03 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.11
  126 01/11 18Z   45     42    0.00 -RA     45     37    0.0
  129 01/11 21Z   47     44    0.04 -TSRA   47     45    0.0  0.04
  132 01/12 00Z   46     44    0.03 -RA     48     45    0.0  0.07
  135 01/12 03Z   45     44    0.00         46     45    0.0
  138 01/12 06Z   44     43    0.00         46     44    0.0
  141 01/12 09Z   43     41    0.00 -RA     44     43    0.0
  144 01/12 12Z   38     33    0.00 -RA     44     38    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  108 01/11 00Z   28     28    0.08 -SN     28     26    0.4  0.08    0.4
  111 01/11 03Z   33     33    0.01 -FZRN   33     28    0.0  0.09
  114 01/11 06Z   34     34    0.00 -RA     34     28    0.0
  117 01/11 09Z   34     34    0.00 -RA     34     34    0.0
  120 01/11 12Z   34     34    0.00 -RA     34     34    0.0
  123 01/11 15Z   35     35    0.03 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.03
  126 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     37     34    0.0  0.06
  129 01/11 21Z   39     39    0.02 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.08
  132 01/12 00Z   40     40    0.02 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.10
  135 01/12 03Z   41     41    0.03 -RA     41     40    0.0  0.13
  138 01/12 06Z   41     41    0.02 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.15
  141 01/12 09Z   41     41    0.01 -RA     42     41    0.0  0.16
  144 01/12 12Z   41     41    0.06 -RA     42     41    0.0  0.22

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  108 01/11 00Z   27     26    0.02 -SN     27     24    0.2  0.02    0.2
  111 01/11 03Z   31     30    0.05 -SN     31     28    0.3  0.07    0.5
  114 01/11 06Z   33     33    0.02 -RA     33     28    0.0  0.09
  117 01/11 09Z   34     34    0.01 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.10
  120 01/11 12Z   34     34    0.01 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.11
  123 01/11 15Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.13
  126 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.06 -RA     37     34    0.0  0.19
  129 01/11 21Z   38     38    0.07 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.26
  132 01/12 00Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.29
  135 01/12 03Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.32
  138 01/12 06Z   40     40    0.15 -RA     41     38    0.0  0.47
  141 01/12 09Z   40     40    0.02 -RA     40     40    0.0  0.49
  144 01/12 12Z   40     40    0.06 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.55

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  108 01/11 00Z   18     17    0.00 -SN     19     16    0.0
  111 01/11 03Z   22     21    0.02 -SN     22     18    0.3  0.02    0.3
  114 01/11 06Z   24     23    0.02 -SN     24     18    0.3  0.04    0.6
  117 01/11 09Z   27     26    0.01 -SN     27     24    0.0  0.05
  120 01/11 12Z   28     28    0.01 -FZRN   28     24    0.0  0.06
  123 01/11 15Z   32     32    0.01 -FZRN   33     29    0.0  0.07
  126 01/11 18Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     29    0.0  0.08
  129 01/11 21Z   35     35    0.03 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.11
  132 01/12 00Z   39     39    0.05 -RA     39     34    0.0  0.16
  135 01/12 03Z   40     39    0.09 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.25
  138 01/12 06Z   41     40    0.14 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.39
  141 01/12 09Z   41     40    0.06 -RA     41     41    0.0  0.45
  144 01/12 12Z   42     41    0.07 -RA     42     41    0.0  0.52
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Stl
post Jan 6 2018, 02:06 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 6 2018, 01:50 PM) *
Its ok guys after all the warmth & the rain the CMC says we build back are snow pack 2 days later.

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png ( 184.61K ) Number of downloads: 2


GFS had 24" for here and most of the Saint-Lawrence on it's 00z run from Friday but since then it changed to a rain event , last night it missed us with mostly a few inches and now on the 12z we're getting 6".

This storm has potential like mentioned by other so we might have a decent amount for most of us.

This post has been edited by Stl: Jan 6 2018, 02:09 PM
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 6 2018, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 6 2018, 01:50 PM) *
Its ok guys after all the warmth & the rain the CMC says we build back are snow pack 2 days later.

I like the CMC lol. Thing is the GFS and euro both have a similar looking storm with the usual difference in track.

12z GFS
Attached File  0B511455_5F3B_4B0E_960D_733B48029B6B.png ( 195.27K ) Number of downloads: 2
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markj138
post Jan 6 2018, 02:32 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 6 2018, 02:07 PM) *
I like the CMC lol. Thing is the GFS and euro both have a similar looking storm with the usual difference in track.

12z GFS
Attached File  0B511455_5F3B_4B0E_960D_733B48029B6B.png ( 195.27K ) Number of downloads: 2


This one is way out there so who knows,but for now we say bye to the prolonged snow pack & cold & enter a warmer period probably more like 07-08 where we had snow chances but the snow we did get didnt stick around to long,i am not saying we will get as much snow as 07-08 but as the pattern adjusts we might see some similarities.
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snowgeek93
post Jan 6 2018, 02:40 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 6 2018, 02:32 PM) *
This one is way out there so who knows,but for now we say bye to the prolonged snow pack & cold & enter a warmer period probably more like 07-08 where we had snow chances but the snow we did get didnt stick around to long,i am not saying we will get as much snow as 07-08 but as the pattern adjusts we might see some similarities.

Except back in 07-08 we did have long stretches of snow cover alongside all the storminess. The the snowiest stretches that season (Dec and Feb) had most or all the month with snow cover here.

I think we might have to wait until February here to have long standing snow cover chances again. It was nice while it lasted though.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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markj138
post Jan 6 2018, 03:16 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 6 2018, 02:40 PM) *
Except back in 07-08 we did have long stretches of snow cover alongside all the storminess. The the snowiest stretches that season (Dec and Feb) had most or all the month with snow cover here.

I think we might have to wait until February here to have long standing snow cover chances again. It was nice while it lasted though.


The thing about 07-08 is i was in Pickering back then so i see it as IMBY the snow came & went fast LOL
but yeah i say good riddance to this cold the wind has been brutal,lets make a clean slate & start over again.
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travis3000
post Jan 6 2018, 03:34 PM
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12z GFS showing a solid 35-40 hour window of above 0C temps across all of Southern ON. Highs peaking around 7-9C

This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 6 2018, 03:35 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Jan 6 2018, 04:41 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 6 2018, 03:34 PM) *
12z GFS showing a solid 35-40 hour window of above 0C temps across all of Southern ON. Highs peaking around 7-9C


If that verifies, I'll definitely lose all snow cover. Again, it's fluffy powder out there. Not blocks of ice. It'll melt fast.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Lake effect
post Jan 6 2018, 05:39 PM
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18Z showing this stretching over into the weekend with an ice/snow/mix...could be quite nasty.
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Apocalypse
post Jan 6 2018, 06:24 PM
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That looks like a lot of ice. I guess this includes the second system.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25.png ( 193.27K ) Number of downloads: 1


On the other hand there's a lot more snow on the back end.

12z

Attached File  12.png ( 184.25K ) Number of downloads: 2


18z

Attached File  18.png ( 175.02K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by Apocalypse: Jan 6 2018, 06:44 PM
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markj138
post Jan 6 2018, 06:44 PM
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QUOTE(Apocalypse @ Jan 6 2018, 06:24 PM) *
That looks like a lot of ice.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25.png ( 193.27K ) Number of downloads: 1


On the other hand there's a lot more snow on the back end.

12z

Attached File  12.png ( 184.25K ) Number of downloads: 2


18z

Attached File  18.png ( 175.02K ) Number of downloads: 1



Those totals include sleet so that`s not all snow on the 18Z GFS,but something to watch for sure,i might start up a thread tomorrow.

This post has been edited by markj138: Jan 6 2018, 06:44 PM
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Apocalypse
post Jan 6 2018, 07:12 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 6 2018, 06:44 PM) *
Those totals include sleet so that`s not all snow on the 18Z GFS,but something to watch for sure,i might start up a thread tomorrow.


Thanks for pointing that out. Would be quite a mess of a system if it turned out that way.
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markj138
post Jan 6 2018, 07:15 PM
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QUOTE(Apocalypse @ Jan 6 2018, 07:12 PM) *
Thanks for pointing that out. Would be quite a mess of a system if it turned out that way.


It would be a huge mess! lets hope the ice part of the storm dosent verify.
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