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> Jan 13-14th Eastern Canada winter storm, Medium range significant snow potential
Lake effect
post Jan 7 2018, 06:25 PM
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18Z GFS giving over 40cms for the GHTA, Ottawa and points East.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png ( 199.19K ) Number of downloads: 6


Attached File  gfs_asnowd24_us_21.png ( 99.1K ) Number of downloads: 11


Attached File  gfs_asnowd24_us_23__1_.png ( 96.51K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gfs_asnow_secan_29.png ( 127.9K ) Number of downloads: 4


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 9 2018, 11:43 AM
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plowguy
post Jan 7 2018, 06:27 PM
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Yikes!
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travis3000
post Jan 7 2018, 06:29 PM
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Now that is a phenomenal run, not as plentiful for us up here but still 25cm. GTA gets smashed with 35-45cm.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 7 2018, 06:33 PM
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Ensembles in remarkable agreement. Somone somewhere is going to buried, but the fine tuning will be unknown till Thursday IMO:

Euro:

Attached File  ecmwf_ens_z500_mslp_us_7.png ( 136.97K ) Number of downloads: 0


GEFS

Attached File  gfs_ens_z500_mslp_us_24.png ( 123.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


Canadian:

Attached File  gem_ens_z500_mslp_us_25.png ( 126.28K ) Number of downloads: 0
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snowgeek93
post Jan 7 2018, 07:01 PM
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Well it would certainly make up for the snow we lose on Thursday! laugh.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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puttin
post Jan 7 2018, 07:18 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 7 2018, 06:29 PM) *
Now that is a phenomenal run, not as plentiful for us up here but still 25cm. GTA gets smashed with 35-45cm.


Lots of time for that to change, that amount of snow is unheard of, since the Colorado low when we bought our house, 45 cm, 19 years ago....that was an awesome storm.. On another note, We had a plow in the ditch on Friday at my work (yrp) that needed to be towed out, had 16,000 tons of sand to be shovelled first...16,000 unreal...on a relatively good day for the roads

This post has been edited by puttin: Jan 7 2018, 07:26 PM
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Lake effect
post Jan 7 2018, 07:37 PM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Jan 7 2018, 07:18 PM) *
Lots of time for that to change, that amount of snow is unheard of, since the Colorado low when we bought our house, 45 cm, 19 years ago....that was an awesome storm.. On another note, We had a plow in the ditch on Friday at my work (yrp) that needed to be towed out, had 16,000 tons of sand to be shovelled first...16,000 unreal...on a relatively good day for the roads


Yep, if this storm comes to pass like this, Toronto will become completely dysfuntional next week...maybe see tbe military called in laugh.gif

TBH, if this happens, it will be the speed of accumulation that will really be the problem.

Anyway, as you say, 5 days away still.
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puttin
post Jan 7 2018, 07:47 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 7 2018, 07:37 PM) *
Yep, if this storm comes to pass like this, Toronto will become completely dysfuntional next week...maybe see tbe military called in laugh.gif

TBH, if this happens, it will be the speed of accumulation that will really be the problem.

Anyway, as you say, 5 days away still.

Nice To still have you here Lakie. My mom is sinking into your dads world. It is cruel for us and kind for them I guess. heck on earth for those of us with kids and are devastated...god bless us all....
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MrMusic
post Jan 7 2018, 07:48 PM
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Wanna see this still modelled like this in a few days....would be a very rare event. One can watch and hope in the meantime!


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Lake effect
post Jan 7 2018, 07:53 PM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Jan 7 2018, 07:47 PM) *
Nice To still have you here Lakie. My mom is sinking into your dads world. It is cruel for us and kind for them I guess. heck on earth for those of us with kids and are devastated...god bless us all....


Sorry to hear that Puttin. Yeah, my Dad is so far gone now. He actually prefers the company of other demented people.

This will almost certainly be my last winter here (I know, said that last year), but I can't leave my Mum on her own. Be nice to have one monster storm and one great LES outbreak before I go...this one has potential for sure.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 7 2018, 07:53 PM
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 7 2018, 08:15 PM
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All about how fast the cold air comes in after the cutting system. If it can come in fast enough but not too fast then watch out. Those accumulation maps might not be that far off. Also need the cold air to come in to all layers. If you end up with a situation where the surface cold comes in but itís warm through H85 then could be looking at a fairly significant ZR event.
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Lake effect
post Jan 7 2018, 08:40 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 7 2018, 08:15 PM) *
All about how fast the cold air comes in after the cutting system. If it can come in fast enough but not too fast then watch out. Those accumulation maps might not be that far off. Also need the cold air to come in to all layers. If you end up with a situation where the surface cold comes in but itís warm through H85 then could be looking at a fairly significant ZR event.


ZR will definitely be a factor at some point. Lets hope it passes over fast.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19__1_.png ( 212.33K ) Number of downloads: 3


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cards101
post Jan 7 2018, 11:27 PM
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Latest 00z runs of GFS and Canadian both come in with monsters of S.Ontario. Canadian a bit better for GTA, but both huge hits
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markj138
post Jan 7 2018, 11:27 PM
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i see you typing snowbob

CMC 0Z

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_27.png ( 151.99K ) Number of downloads: 3
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 7 2018, 11:29 PM
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GFS and GEM continue to show massive totals for S ON. Hereís a couple images from the 00z runs.

GFS

Attached File  097A5338_EBC9_4E6D_BA40_5894E3FE6BF2.png ( 204.92K ) Number of downloads: 2


GEM

Attached File  F3414213_8BD6_426D_B06F_6AF8406B4503.png ( 193.73K ) Number of downloads: 1
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 7 2018, 11:32 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 7 2018, 11:27 PM) *
i see you typing snowbob


ROFL. I canít help it Iím getting way too into this storm. Iím fully invested that this is going to be the big one. I think you might be too. Lol
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markj138
post Jan 7 2018, 11:37 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 7 2018, 11:32 PM) *
ROFL. I canít help it Iím getting way too into this storm. Iím fully invested that this is going to be the big one. I think you might be too. Lol


laugh.gif i hope this one dosen`t break my heart,there is no way this look is going to stick on every run between now & the storm so there will be ups & downs but yeah all the ingredients are there & if we can get back to these solutions the end of next week then BOOM!
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 7 2018, 11:41 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 7 2018, 11:37 PM) *
laugh.gif i hope this one dosen`t break my heart,there is no way this look is going to stick on every run between now & the storm so there will be ups & downs but yeah all the ingredients are there & if we can get back to these solutions the end of next week then BOOM!


Boom indeed. Despite it being several days out Iím debating staying up to check the euro. Who needs sleep when the storm of the century is on its way. tongue.gif
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cards101
post Jan 7 2018, 11:47 PM
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The new euro should come in more east then 12z run...all of the 12z ensembles where east of the euro
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markj138
post Jan 7 2018, 11:48 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 7 2018, 11:41 PM) *
Boom indeed. Despite it being several days out Iím debating staying up to check the euro. Who needs sleep when the storm of the century is on its way. tongue.gif


Haha i don`t think i can make the euro,anyway we will need our sleep for the night of the storm of the century!!
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