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> Jan 21-23 Great Lakes Cutter / Rainstorm, Snowpack Eater
MrMusic
post Jan 20 2018, 08:43 AM
Post #41




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QUOTE(robv1989 @ Jan 20 2018, 08:35 AM) *
Thank you for the reply, I'm in stoney creek so it looks like my area might be spared, but I work in burlington which looks to be in the area of ice potential. Will wait and see the next 24 hours as the details get ironed out. It's plus 2 here also mr music, feels a lot warmer though since the polar vortex left


Ya seriously. When I went out last night at 11 in just a shirt I felt fine. I thought "wow, has the temp spiked into double digits this eve!?" Turns out it was 4. But felt like 14. Lol

This post has been edited by MrMusic: Jan 20 2018, 08:44 AM


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Jan 20 2018, 09:16 AM
Post #42




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Felt the same here in the GTA.
We are so adjusted to -10 to -20 temps, that 0 is a heat wave.
If someone gets this ice that NAM is on that is major problems for many people.
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Jan 20 2018, 06:03 PM
Post #43




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Attached File  zr_acc.us_ne__1_.png ( 362.19K ) Number of downloads: 16


The Nam 3k has a skating rink for everyone
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Lake effect
post Jan 20 2018, 06:12 PM
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The GFS is not buying this ice threat at all. Not that far south anyway. I'm hoping they are right and not the NAM.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 20 2018, 07:31 PM
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HRRR usually does a good job with these low level cold CAD events. Should get a better idea of who’s going to get ZR when it’s in range.
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rjb
post Jan 20 2018, 09:51 PM
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For was it's worth, TWN is calling for a prolonged period of freezing rain north of the 401 while Accuweather is only forecasting 1 mm of freezing rain for my area (south of 401). Is that to be believed?
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rjb
post Jan 20 2018, 09:53 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 20 2018, 06:12 PM) *
The GFS is not buying this ice threat at all. Not that far south anyway. I'm hoping they are right and not the NAM.


isn't the GFS usually more accurate? If I remember right, they forecasted the ice storm of 2013 when most other models didn't.
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Lake effect
post Jan 21 2018, 06:55 AM
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QUOTE(rjb @ Jan 20 2018, 09:53 PM) *
isn't the GFS usually more accurate? If I remember right, they forecasted the ice storm of 2013 when most other models didn't.


A few years ago this was true, but the NAM has been getting much better at the short range forecast. It is still calling for several hours of ZR for many areas from the middle of tomorrow afternoon. The GFS and CMC are still not showing such an extensive event, just a few pockets here and there. Will be interesting and important to see who wins.

06Z NAM 3k

Precip at midnight on Monday:

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_47.png ( 235.22K ) Number of downloads: 7


Winds, which are a key component for damage in ice events. They are not too strong so should limit the damage.

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_wind_neus_46.png ( 247.9K ) Number of downloads: 3


Totals with the escapement taking the biggest hit.

Attached File  zr_acc.us_ne.png ( 362.12K ) Number of downloads: 14


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 21 2018, 06:56 AM
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Lake effect
post Jan 21 2018, 07:27 AM
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Looking like there may in fact be 5-10cms of LES for areas that benefit from a NW-SE flow, including Barrie, after this passes through.

Winds hold steady for a few hours:

Attached File  hwn_78.gif ( 31.8K ) Number of downloads: 2


NAM 12k in on the action.

Attached File  namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49.png ( 163.24K ) Number of downloads: 3
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Ottawa blizzard
post Jan 21 2018, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 21 2018, 06:55 AM) *
A few years ago this was true, but the NAM has been getting much better at the short range forecast. It is still calling for several hours of ZR for many areas from the middle of tomorrow afternoon. The GFS and CMC are still not showing such an extensive event, just a few pockets here and there. Will be interesting and important to see who wins.

06Z NAM 3k

Precip at midnight on Monday:

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_47.png ( 235.22K ) Number of downloads: 7


Winds, which are a key component for damage in ice events. They are not too strong so should limit the damage.

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_wind_neus_46.png ( 247.9K ) Number of downloads: 3


Totals with the escapement taking the biggest hit.

Attached File  zr_acc.us_ne.png ( 362.12K ) Number of downloads: 14

Will be interesting indeed, especially given that EC has, this morning, essentially cancelled the freezing rain threat for the GTA.
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rjb
post Jan 21 2018, 10:54 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 21 2018, 06:55 AM) *
A few years ago this was true, but the NAM has been getting much better at the short range forecast. It is still calling for several hours of ZR for many areas from the middle of tomorrow afternoon. The GFS and CMC are still not showing such an extensive event, just a few pockets here and there. Will be interesting and important to see who wins.


All I have to say is GO GFS.

QUOTE
Totals with the escapement taking the biggest hit.

Attached File  zr_acc.us_ne.png ( 362.12K ) Number of downloads: 14


In any case, it looks a bit better than the previous one. Before the GTA was getting about 0.7", now it's about 0.1"
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travis3000
post Jan 21 2018, 11:35 AM
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(3KM) 12z NAM isn't looking as bad for freezing rain in Southern ON compared to yesterdays runs. Def showing more rain.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Jan 21 2018, 12:26 PM
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After hitting 6.6C yesterday we are already sitting at 6C today. Sun is out again. I will say the CMC has been the closest with temps these past 3 days. The NAM has been consistently showing highs of -2C for Simcoe County today, and yet its currently 6C at noon? Just as bad as yesterdays prediction of -3C and we hit almost 7C.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 21 2018, 01:18 PM
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NAM backing down big time, thank goodness...expect this to creep north and go lower in the next few runs:

Attached File  zr_acc.us_ne__1_.png ( 355.67K ) Number of downloads: 5
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EOsnowmom
post Jan 21 2018, 04:40 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 21 2018, 01:18 PM) *
...expect this to creep north and go lower in the next few runs:


Not a bad thing.
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rjb
post Jan 21 2018, 06:56 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 21 2018, 01:18 PM) *
NAM backing down big time, thank goodness...expect this to creep north and go lower in the next few runs:

Attached File  zr_acc.us_ne__1_.png ( 355.67K ) Number of downloads: 5


good for the GTA and south, still some areas north look pretty nasty. Maybe not enough for widespread power outages but enough to make roads very slippery and damage trees, some power outages might be expected if this holds.

However, and forgive my ignorance, I didn't know that Pivotal Weather = NAM. I've seen many times this maps posted here and most of the time they are exaggerating the ice threat. I might be wrong though.
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rjb
post Jan 21 2018, 07:02 PM
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EC insists the threat of freezing rain for the GTA is minimal. There are freezing rain warnings for Peel and York regions but they say it will be light.

Different story for eastern Ontario where it's expected to be much more prolonged with several mm expected, especially in the Ottawa valley, but also Kingston and the freezing rain champion (doubtful honour) Cornwall.
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Stl
post Jan 21 2018, 07:44 PM
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Ya , Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec seem to have a decent amount of ice , luckily the snow and the sleet before will help to absorb the freezing rain.
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Lake effect
post Jan 21 2018, 07:45 PM
Post #59




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HRRR coming into range and looks like most people West of Peterborough get off lightly on the ZR front:

Attached File  hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18.png ( 168.09K ) Number of downloads: 9


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 21 2018, 07:46 PM
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travis3000
post Jan 21 2018, 10:01 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 21 2018, 07:45 PM) *
HRRR coming into range and looks like most people West of Peterborough get off lightly on the ZR front:

Attached File  hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18.png ( 168.09K ) Number of downloads: 9


GFS and GEM knew this days ago. NAM has been out in never never land.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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