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> Jan 29th-30th S ON System
snowgeek93
post Jan 29 2018, 08:12 AM
Post #21




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Hoping for at least 5cm up this way, enough to whiten the ground again at least.

Have fun Hamilton and Niagara folks! tongue.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 29 2018, 08:30 AM
Post #22




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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 29 2018, 08:12 AM) *
Hoping for at least 5cm up this way, enough to whiten the ground again at least.

Have fun Hamilton and Niagara folks! tongue.gif

Would not be surprised to see 6-10cm for GTA at this point.
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MrMusic
post Jan 29 2018, 08:36 AM
Post #23




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06z RGEM with ratios...temps will drop today and ratio's should be good this eve




06z NAM


12z HRRR out to 1am.... shows 15-20cm for Hamilton with ratios. Also shows an area of 15-20cm from Milton back towards London. Snowfall warnings would be extended if this were to verify.



--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 29 2018, 08:42 AM
Post #24




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I was just looking at the HRRR and it looks to have the precip further north than most other models. It doesnít yet go to the end of the run but extrapolating I would say it has the band of heavier accumulation right on the GTA door step by the time the system would move out. Itís always good to have the HRRR on your side.
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dsichewski
post Jan 29 2018, 08:50 AM
Post #25




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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 29 2018, 08:56 AM) *
HRRR and RAP don't show snow starting till 3-4pm.
Looking at radar, it should start in the next hour or so.


Is there a reason there is such a big time gap? I can't see it being lake effect?
In any event bring on the 20cm....work for me! It's been awfully slow the last couple weeks🙈
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MrMusic
post Jan 29 2018, 08:52 AM
Post #26




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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 29 2018, 08:42 AM) *
I was just looking at the HRRR and it looks to have the precip further north than most other models. It doesn’t yet go to the end of the run but extrapolating I would say it has the band of heavier accumulation right on the GTA door step by the time the system would move out. It’s always good to have the HRRR on your side.


You can see the most recent HRRR run above in my last post. If it verifies, could see areas just SW of the GTA being added to snowfall warnings perhaps.

This post has been edited by MrMusic: Jan 29 2018, 08:53 AM


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Jan 29 2018, 09:15 AM
Post #27




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Member No.: 28,218





this system is over performing to our west this morning.

Here is a report of 7.8 inches in Lansing, MI with no lake enhancement. And still several hours of heavy snow to come there. Will be interesting to see if the same banding and dynamics maintain themselves over Ontario



--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Jan 29 2018, 09:40 AM
Post #28




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12z NAM
Increased snow amounts. Heaviest corridor from Turkey Point to Hamilton-Niagara



--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Jan 29 2018, 09:42 AM
Post #29




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and not surprisingly, the 3k NAM also increased.... Even an area of 25cm showing up now just east of Hamilton.



--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Jan 29 2018, 09:44 AM
Post #30




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Member No.: 28,218





new HRRR with 15-20cm for all of Hamilton.
A long area of 15cm from Brantford to SW of London

This is as of 2am. Snow just ending in Hamilton, continuing in Niagara



--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Jan 29 2018, 09:45 AM
Post #31




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Posts: 4,591
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Member No.: 28,218





And right on cue, snowfall warnings have expanded to include St Thomas to Brantford. And the Long Point/Dover area


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Jan 29 2018, 09:48 AM
Post #32




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with the best dynamics of this system appearing to head for the St Thomas - Niagara corridor, I'm going to keep an eye out in the Hamilton-western Niagara region for someone to over perform quite nicely with the combination of storm dynamics now approaching the area along with a strong lake breeze.
Later this afternoon and evening I expect some very heavy snow possible in Hamilton as the temps plummet and winds align from the ENE for a time before shifting NE then N


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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dsichewski
post Jan 29 2018, 09:48 AM
Post #33




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Posts: 405
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From: Guelph, on
Member No.: 20,828





QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 29 2018, 10:45 AM) *
And right on cue, snowfall warnings have expanded to include St Thomas to Brantford. And the Long Point/Dover area


Paging plowguy. lol
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Torontoweather
post Jan 29 2018, 10:05 AM
Post #34




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From: Toronto, Ontario
Member No.: 19,500





QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 29 2018, 08:07 AM) *
Woohoo! First snow related weather warning of the winter!
Snowfall warning for 15cm.
All models are on board with around 15cm, a couple even close to 20.


Wasnít there a snowfall warning around the Christmas period?


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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Torontoweather
post Jan 29 2018, 10:08 AM
Post #35




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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 29 2018, 10:15 AM) *
this system is over performing to our west this morning.

Here is a report of 7.8 inches in Lansing, MI with no lake enhancement. And still several hours of heavy snow to come there. Will be interesting to see if the same banding and dynamics maintain themselves over Ontario



Agreed! Can you post a link to that?


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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plowguy
post Jan 29 2018, 10:08 AM
Post #36




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QUOTE(dsichewski @ Jan 29 2018, 09:48 AM) *
Paging plowguy. lol

Just made sure everything is fuelled and ready to roll! timing is very nice with this one for me. looks to be slowing around midnight which gives us time to get everyone cleared and salted by morning.
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Torontoweather
post Jan 29 2018, 10:16 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 29 2018, 10:15 AM) *
this system is over performing to our west this morning.

Here is a report of 7.8 inches in Lansing, MI with no lake enhancement. And still several hours of heavy snow to come there. Will be interesting to see if the same banding and dynamics maintain themselves over Ontario



Itís not ideal but itís definitely not a bad setup for deformation and low-level frontogenesis. I would be surprised if some of these local amounts in excess of 15-20 cm did not transfer over into southern Ontario. The question is where. Beautiful band set up right now north of Kitchener and Stratford that is probably putting down hefty rates. Later on, best dynamics will be from London to Hamilton and Niagara. GTA should get in on some heavier snow too but for a shorter period.

This post has been edited by Torontoweather: Jan 29 2018, 10:19 AM


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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Jeremy404
post Jan 29 2018, 10:16 AM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 29 2018, 07:08 AM) *
Shouldn't have washed the car yesterday!


Washing the car in modern times is the equivlent of calling for the rain/snow gods
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Jeremy404
post Jan 29 2018, 10:20 AM
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Just woke up in Guelph

Moderate snowfall here, was not expecting this at all

Forecast was for a mere dusting yesterday lol

Lucky I lifted my wipers up in case those last second models verified which it seems to be doing lol
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dsichewski
post Jan 29 2018, 10:30 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jan 29 2018, 11:16 AM) *
Itís not ideal but itís definitely not a bad setup for deformation and low-level frontogenesis. I would be surprised if some of these local amounts in excess of 15-20 cm did not transfer over into southern Ontario. The question is where. Beautiful band set up right now north of Kitchener and Stratford that is probably putting down hefty rates. Later on, best dynamics will be from London to Hamilton and Niagara. GTA should get in on some heavier snow too but for a shorter period.


Its snowing quite heavily here in Guelph...ground is already covered in a dusting of white and doesnt seem to be letting up anytime soon...how long it stays at this intensity remains to be seen though...
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