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> Feb 4-5th S.ONT Storm Potential
SNOWBOB11
post Feb 1 2018, 02:51 PM
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12z euro snowfall.

Attached File  2BA9CB46_9B04_48EA_84CC_C5AF0EB5772E.png ( 184K ) Number of downloads: 9
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 1 2018, 04:58 PM
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The NAM showing a generally light to moderate system with 5-10cm for the GTA and other areas around S ON. I think the models are still having a bit of trouble with the system coming in in two waves and trying to figure out the details. I feel it will still take some time for models to get everything worked out. Might not end up as a big snowstorm but a longer duration system could be in store.

Heres the look on the 18z NAM.
Attached File  11C440E6_E3B7_40EA_BB63_B233B4B54679.png ( 162.82K ) Number of downloads: 2
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 1 2018, 05:06 PM
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18z GFS still has the GTA in that 8-15m range as it continues to show a bit more of an organized system than the NAM shows atm.
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markj138
post Feb 1 2018, 05:52 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 1 2018, 05:06 PM) *
18z GFS still has the GTA in that 8-15m range as it continues to show a bit more of an organized system than the NAM shows atm.



The low moved further north west this run,i was hoping for a stronger more organized system but it looks pretty weak,still some time for changes over the next couple of days.
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2018, 07:22 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 1 2018, 05:06 PM) *
18z GFS still has the GTA in that 8-15m range as it continues to show a bit more of an organized system than the NAM shows atm.


That would be too much even for us snow lovers. It wouldn't melt till next winter! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 1 2018, 07:22 PM
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 1 2018, 08:01 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 1 2018, 07:22 PM) *
That would be too much even for us snow lovers. It wouldn't melt till next winter! laugh.gif

Oh shoot lol, yeah I think even as much as we like snow around here 8-15m might be a bit much.
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travis3000
post Feb 1 2018, 08:25 PM
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NAM keeps the low further north which is bad news for the Nottawasaga Valley from Toronto up into Barrie and Wasaga as winds will be from the WSW, essentially killing the heavier bands as they move over the escarpment (downsloping). A NAM setup delivers highest amounts for Muskoka into the eastern end of Lake Ontario as well as Huron/Grey/Bruce counties to the lee of lake Huron. The area in the middle gets shafted, similar to this past Mondays storm. Let's hope the NAM is wrong.

GFS track is further south which bodes better for that GTA to Barrie corridor as wind direction changes. Most of the models are spitting out 7-12cm across the area, locally 15cm in the sweet spots. Keep an eye on tomorrow's runs.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 1 2018, 08:25 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Feb 1 2018, 08:53 PM
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5-10cm would be awesome to beef up the snowpack a bit.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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Bob and Karen
post Feb 2 2018, 01:07 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 1 2018, 04:58 PM) *
The NAM showing a generally light to moderate system with 5-10cm for the GTA and other areas around S ON. I think the models are still having a bit of trouble with the system coming in in two waves and trying to figure out the details. I feel it will still take some time for models to get everything worked out. Might not end up as a big snowstorm but a longer duration system could be in store.

Heres the look on the 18z NAM.
Attached File  11C440E6_E3B7_40EA_BB63_B233B4B54679.png ( 162.82K ) Number of downloads: 2


Our family is planning a winter vacation in Algonquin Park Ontario sometime in the next couple weeks, traveling from Pennsylvania. Since I am a weather Newbie, could you provide a link for the NAV and EURO models? I have a link for the GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...020200&fh=6

Thanks in advance!





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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 2 2018, 09:31 AM
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QUOTE(Bob and Karen @ Feb 2 2018, 01:07 AM) *
Our family is planning a winter vacation in Algonquin Park Ontario sometime in the next couple weeks, traveling from Pennsylvania. Since I am a weather Newbie, could you provide a link for the NAV and EURO models? I have a link for the GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...020200&fh=6

Thanks in advance!

By NAV are you talking about the NAV GEM model? Or did you mean the NAM model like the one I posted? Either way the NAV GEM and NAM are both available on the tropical tidbits link you posted. NAV GEM is available on the Global tab at the top of the forecast models page. The NAM is available on the mesoscale tab at the top right of the forecast models page. You have access to the 32k, 12k and 3k NAM.

Unfortunately the euro precipitation maps are only behind paywalls so you have to sign up for an account to get access to that. Heres a link for euro precip maps. https://weathermodels.com. Its $10 a month. You can get access to euro 500 geopotential hight and low pressure on the same tropical tidbits site under ECMWF in the Global tab but as I said precip isnt available anywhere for free.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 2 2018, 10:53 AM
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GFS continues to show very decent totals for S ON. Initial wave tracks somewhat NW then the main system is a good track and good intensity. Here the 12z run.

Attached File  3E467FA3_7ECC_42BF_8185_80BEDB270971.gif ( 59.05K ) Number of downloads: 22
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snowgeek93
post Feb 2 2018, 11:42 AM
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Looks great! Just enough snow to freshen up our base here going into this cold snap.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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puttin
post Feb 2 2018, 12:37 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 2 2018, 11:42 AM) *
Looks great! Just enough snow to freshen up our base here going into this cold snap.


So how much snow are we talking about at the moment? I am in Newmarket just under Lake Simcoe. This is a weekend event or Sunday into Monday? Sorry, I haven't been keeping up...
Thanks a bunch!
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 2 2018, 01:17 PM
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12z euro look like its coming a bit more inline with the GFS.

Attached File  028EF707_1236_4C90_B09F_8EB849326E42.png ( 132.47K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  B5D39B92_4E12_4B49_9747_D92D997A07C1.png ( 152.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  985F3211_F55F_4E76_99C2_11D7DB4E4536.png ( 141.93K ) Number of downloads: 2


Snowfall at 10:1
Attached File  6A45F9C9_F72C_42CD_B5D0_88F02D939141.png ( 180.46K ) Number of downloads: 5
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 2 2018, 01:19 PM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Feb 2 2018, 12:37 PM) *
So how much snow are we talking about at the moment? I am in Newmarket just under Lake Simcoe. This is a weekend event or Sunday into Monday? Sorry, I haven't been keeping up...
Thanks a bunch!

I think for you Id go with 8-15cm expected atm from this system.
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puttin
post Feb 2 2018, 02:00 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 2 2018, 01:19 PM) *
I think for you Id go with 8-15cm expected atm from this system.


Thank you Sir! I'll stay tuned.... wink.gif
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dsichewski
post Feb 2 2018, 02:40 PM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Feb 2 2018, 03:00 PM) *
Thank you Sir! I'll stay tuned.... wink.gif


I really need to put my glasses on when I read posts here on my phone... I totally thought you wrote thank you Siri lol
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puttin
post Feb 2 2018, 02:48 PM
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QUOTE(dsichewski @ Feb 2 2018, 02:40 PM) *
I really need to put my glasses on when I read posts here on my phone... I totally thought you wrote thank you Siri lol


Too funny....
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Lake effect
post Feb 2 2018, 03:07 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 2 2018, 01:19 PM) *
I think for you Id go with 8-15cm expected atm from this system.


I think that might be on the optimistic side given Newmarket is affected by the Nottawasaga valley snow tent caused by the escarpment. I'd say more like 5-10cms
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 2 2018, 03:24 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 2 2018, 03:07 PM) *
I think that might be on the optimistic side given Newmarket is affected by the Nottawasaga valley snow tent caused by the escarpment. I'd say more like 5-10cms

Leaning more toward the GFS/CMC than the NAM atm as I think those models have a better idea on the placement and intensity of the secondary wave currently.
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