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> Feb 9-11th Eastern Canada System, Short range likely multi wave event
SNOWBOB11
post Feb 7 2018, 10:18 PM
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NAM still looks good for GTA with around 7. Over 12 in the SW.
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Astronomer
post Feb 7 2018, 10:34 PM
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QUOTE(akula @ Feb 7 2018, 08:33 PM) *
got that map?


Attached File  Feb_9.png ( 215.49K ) Number of downloads: 24
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Lake effect
post Feb 8 2018, 07:03 AM
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NAM GFS AND CMC all have this giving between 4-12 inches along the 401. Areas to the north up to Barrie and Ottawa may get up to 4 inches. Going to be a lovely snowy weekend again. Total snow from the 3 models till monday. The 12z runs should finalize amounts...at least from the first wave.

The GFS has the first wave go further south east:

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_18.png ( 157.4K ) Number of downloads: 6


The CMC and NAM 12k are in alignment. The NAM 3k is more SE, but I'm not convinced this is so good at macro events.

CMC

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_18.png ( 135.19K ) Number of downloads: 7


NAM

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_29.png ( 137.7K ) Number of downloads: 9
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MrMusic
post Feb 8 2018, 07:13 AM
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Track is looking ideal. No complaints here if this were to verify. Although I'm curious about the US-Canada border snow wall that keeps all the heavy amounts in Michigan. Lol
We should get a good idea on this by later today.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Lake effect
post Feb 8 2018, 07:17 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 8 2018, 07:13 AM) *
Track is looking ideal. No complaints here if this were to verify. Although I'm curious about the US-Canada border snow wall that keeps all the heavy amounts in Michigan. Lol
We should get a good idea on this by later today.


Looks very good for you guys...on top of yesterday's snow, you are going to have a very decent base by Monday.
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MrMusic
post Feb 8 2018, 07:31 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 8 2018, 07:17 AM) *
Looks very good for you guys...on top of yesterday's snow, you are going to have a very decent base by Monday.


Yes. Current base is 25cm. This will end up quite nice by Mon. This 10 day stretch will prove to be fantastic after a lackluster Jan!


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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puttin
post Feb 8 2018, 08:04 AM
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QUOTE(akula @ Feb 7 2018, 08:33 PM) *
got that map?

Someone else posted it for me....
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 8 2018, 08:18 AM
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Here the 00z euro with each wave.

Attached File  64B2FA7B_7D99_46BE_8217_33B1771C706B.png ( 130.68K ) Number of downloads: 6


Attached File  6D0632B2_C560_49B7_A5DD_D1D6B6595EDF.png ( 135.36K ) Number of downloads: 4


Attached File  D613A443_2DE0_4A2D_A822_BB5D068D8281.png ( 138.42K ) Number of downloads: 4


Attached File  D3951DE4_562F_4064_BDD3_74FD6C8B90F1.png ( 164.08K ) Number of downloads: 14
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snowgeek93
post Feb 8 2018, 08:21 AM
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Snow baby, snow!


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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akula
post Feb 8 2018, 08:27 AM
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Does anyone think environment Canada's watch amounts seem a little bit low
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 8 2018, 08:30 AM
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I feel hesitant to get behind the CMC/NAM high totals. Not that Im ruling this out just being cautious as sometimes with these multi wave events models have a difficult time with knowing exactly where each wave will track and how intense each wave will be. If one of the waves of precip tracks different or is weaker it can affect the final snow total. Having said that, the NAM has done a good job this year so its good to have it on our side for this event. Im by know means trying to say the NAM is wrong Id just like to see a few more runs and get into the HRRR/RAP range before being more sure on the outcome.

Also of note is the CMC/ECM are showing a stronge 3rd wave of precip while the 00z GFS was more focused on the initial wave. 06z GFS has come around more on the final wave though and increased its strength a bit.
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puttin
post Feb 8 2018, 08:34 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 8 2018, 08:21 AM) *
Snow baby, snow!

Holy Cow, that says 6-8 inches for me? Nice it's coming on the weekend so you can enjoy it without having to drive in it... Put on the fireplace, take the dog for a walk in it.... nice glass of wine and some snacks and then get hubby to shovel in the morning! Sounds like a plan!!!

This post has been edited by puttin: Feb 8 2018, 08:35 AM
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MrMusic
post Feb 8 2018, 08:50 AM
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06z NAM by 10am Saturday morning:




06z GFS by Sat morning...further south with the snows




06 3kNAM by Sat morning




RGEM around 1am Sat morning...still snowing at this time




By Sat morning on the GEM




--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Feb 8 2018, 08:53 AM
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The entire weekend total by Monday morning (take this with a grain of salt IMO)

GEM



GFS



NAM run ends at 7am Sunday morning:



CFS snow depth by Mon morning





--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Feb 8 2018, 08:57 AM
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I can't post an image, but the Euro has 20cm for our entire Golden Horseshoe area by Mon morning with 25cm for SW Ontario



--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 8 2018, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 8 2018, 08:57 AM) *
I can't post an image, but the Euro has 20cm for our entire Golden Horseshoe area by Mon morning with 25cm for SW Ontario

I posted the euro snow map earlier. Map I posted was with 10:1 ratios.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Feb 8 2018, 09:06 AM
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dsichewski
post Feb 8 2018, 09:08 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 8 2018, 08:57 AM) *
I can't post an image, but the Euro has 20cm for our entire Golden Horseshoe area by Mon morning with 25cm for SW Ontario


About dang time we get a storm like this...
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MrMusic
post Feb 8 2018, 09:12 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 8 2018, 09:06 AM) *
I posted the euro snow map earlier. Map I posted was with 10:1 ratios.


do you have the close-up version of that map? I can't make out much on it other than the 15cm line.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 8 2018, 09:14 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 8 2018, 09:12 AM) *
do you have the close-up version of that map? I can't make out much on it other than the 15cm line.

Attached File  14A4F254_0B9D_4ACB_8E57_78ADF4FE8778.png ( 201.38K ) Number of downloads: 6
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 8 2018, 09:17 AM
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Hamilton looks to be in that 7 range. SW closer to 8-9. GTA around 6. Again this would be 10:1 ratios which probably is close to what its going to be.
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