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Lake effect
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Lake effect

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15 Mar 2018
Not much showing up in the models, except a bit tomorrow with the 3k NAM, but after the last lot which they missed, thought it was worth putting something up in case it happens. Lakes are wide open, but cold. Temps forecast to be between -3 and -8 for the period. Winds start this evening in NNW, swing all the way round to WNW, then back again to NW before dying out later on saturday.

My predictions are to be taken with a big grain of salt...could be a nothing-burger:

satellite:

Attached File  t_a1.18073.1849.LakeHuron.143.250m.jpg ( 8.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


Wind directions over period and likely position of any squalls:

Friday morning

Attached File  hwn_24.gif ( 39.25K ) Number of downloads: 1


Friday evening

Attached File  hwn_36.gif ( 37.58K ) Number of downloads: 1


Saturday morning

Attached File  hwn_48.gif ( 35.59K ) Number of downloads: 1


NAM 3k:

radar tomorrow afternoon, otherwise not much

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_26.png ( 162.53K ) Number of downloads: 1


Total snowfall

Attached File  nam3km_asnow_neus_48.png ( 152.07K ) Number of downloads: 1


My predictions:

Black trace-5cm
Red 5-15cms

Attached File  my_predictions.jpg ( 261.96K ) Number of downloads: 3







6 Feb 2018
This has been in the models for a few days. No agreement as to exact intensity and track just yet, but all are showing something, especially overnight Saturday into Sunday. The GFS is a long drawn out light snow event, the Euro has two waves, with the second one very productive for north of the 401, and the CMC has a similar look.

GFS:

1st wave

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png ( 182.07K ) Number of downloads: 2


2nd wave

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 187.53K ) Number of downloads: 1


CMC

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 174.89K ) Number of downloads: 2


NAM not really into range yet, but showing it lurking.

Attached File  nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png ( 190.07K ) Number of downloads: 0
6 Feb 2018
With meteorological spring only a few weeks away, and with the ensembles trending above normal, and the early seasonal outlooks calling for an early warm up, thought it was worth starting this thread. It won't be long before snow lovers go back into hibernation, and we start getting excited about cold fronts bringing banging storms and tornado risk...then hopefully long spells of warmth. Having said all that, the CFS is calling for a cool spring, with slow warm up. Who knows:

500mb heights

Attached File  cfs_mon_01_z500a_us_1.png ( 107.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  cfs_mon_01_z500a_us_2.png ( 95.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  cfs_mon_01_z500a_us_3.png ( 101.32K ) Number of downloads: 0


2m temps

Attached File  cfs_mon_01_T2ma_us_1.png ( 87.24K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  cfs_mon_01_T2ma_us_2.png ( 83.82K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  cfs_mon_01_T2ma_us_3.png ( 83.73K ) Number of downloads: 0
30 Jan 2018
Thought I would create one thread for the multiple minor weather outbreaks that will be coming in this extended cold phase. Big events like storms, extended major LES outbreaks, or clippers >10cms maybe still deserve their own thread.

Firstly, looking at the Euro weeklies, this cold spell will last at least until the latter half of february. In the first half, at least there will be a number of small clippers and LES outbreaks. The first will begin on thursday after the clipper. The winds swing to WNW, and will drive a number of bands through the region, with minor accumulations. then they fix more NW, Thursday midnight, then NNW during Friday, then back to NW as they moderate before the next clipper system.

Winds:

Attached File  hwn_60.gif ( 31.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


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Attached File  hwn_84.gif ( 29.22K ) Number of downloads: 0



Attached File  namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46.png ( 174.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  namconus_ref_frzn_neus_48.png ( 173.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50.png ( 164.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


Predictions from midday Thursday to saturday morning - some areas aligned to NW to SE will get two hits:

Red - 20-40cms

Green - 10-30cms

Black - trace - 10cms

Attached File  prediction_map.jpg ( 256.94K ) Number of downloads: 9

Attached File(s)
Attached File  hwn_54.gif ( 30.47K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
7 Jan 2018
18Z GFS giving over 40cms for the GHTA, Ottawa and points East.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png ( 199.19K ) Number of downloads: 6


Attached File  gfs_asnowd24_us_21.png ( 99.1K ) Number of downloads: 11


Attached File  gfs_asnowd24_us_23__1_.png ( 96.51K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gfs_asnow_secan_29.png ( 127.9K ) Number of downloads: 4
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22 May 2018 - 7:21
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10 Apr 2018 - 6:59


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13 Feb 2018 - 21:34

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