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> S. Ontario Multi Day Snowsquall Event November 18th-22nd, An extended period of LES activity with a variety of wind directions
travis3000
post Nov 16 2014, 06:07 PM
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Ok guys,

We are entering our second big LES event. I know many areas received heavy snowfall Thursday and Friday of last week, with a swath covering Parry Sound south to Barrie picked up 10-30cm of snow. I apologize I couldn't give any insight on that, as my computer was in getting repaired and it's very hard to give any updates on my phone. More snow is on the way. This thread is for discussion on the LES event beginning Tuesday and continuing into Saturday.

The winds will be changing frequently. The three primary directions will be WNW, W, and WSW. It will also be at times SW and NW. Due the changing directions, I am not expecting any epic accumulations, but I am picking up clues that some of these bands will be VERY heavy, at times delivering up to 10cm an hour to certain locations.

I will be updating this thread frequently this coming week with more details. As for the GTA, I am seeing a band coming off Lake Huron (a unique WNW flow) that could affect the area delivering a dusting to 5-6cm across many areas. There is potential for this band to even give higher amounts should it lock in for a few hours. I will be monitoring this.

Here's a preliminary map I just did up now indicating some accumulations this week. I do think that by Saturday most of Southern Ontario will be white as these bands will be moving around quite a bit.

Attached File  Squall_Event_Nov_17th_20th.jpg ( 238.96K ) Number of downloads: 10


Here's a map showing the main bands. Now they of course will not be this wide, however I wanted to show a visual of what will be happening. The areas in the #1 #2 and #3 zone will be seeing the highest chance of seeing accumulating snows as long bands develop, and will oscillate like a windshield wiper across a wide area. Band #3 will move even further south impacting the Kitchener area as well from time to time. So while it's possible one area may only get a few hours of squall activity, accumulations may be 3-5cm PER hour inland at times and even more closer to the lake. So it's extremely hard to pinpoint exact accumulations.

Attached File  Main_Bands_Squall_Event_Nov_2014.jpg ( 189.96K ) Number of downloads: 8


This post has been edited by travis3000: Nov 16 2014, 06:29 PM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Nov 16 2014, 06:19 PM
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So jealous of snowbelts during these events. Lol
Seeing buffalo calling for thunder, lightning and 60-75cm from Mon-Wed. Amazing.
Then another blast Thurs-Fri.

Brad Rousseau just tweeted a model showing 40-60 around Sauble Beach and points SE just from Mon-Wed. Awesome.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Nov 16 2014, 06:20 PM
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Only once as a kid do I remember 10+cm falling on Hamilton from a Huron band.
It's so rare.
Strange too considering how far SE bands extend into PA and WV from Lake Erie.
Guess the lift from mountains down there helps.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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blizzardOf96
post Nov 16 2014, 06:40 PM
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Definitely watching this threat for the GTA. The latest run of the NAM WRF has enough veering by 0z Wednesday to get the Huron band into the GTA dropping a quick 5-10cm of snow. The NAM OP has less veering. Will get a better idea once RGEM/HRRR/NMM/ARW get into range. LICAPE's definitely high enough for some serious banding, though some shear has me questioning the single band look on some of the models. Looks like more of a multi band look to me.


--------------------
Follow me on Twitter: @Blizzardof96

Check out my Wx Blog: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/
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bigmt
post Nov 16 2014, 06:46 PM
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18z high-res NAM sim radar @ hour 36:

Attached File  rad36.gif ( 125.37K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 42:

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Hour 48:

Attached File  rad48.gif ( 89.48K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 54:

Attached File  rad54.gif ( 100.5K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 60:

Attached File  rad60.gif ( 102.79K ) Number of downloads: 2
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Lake effect
post Nov 16 2014, 07:08 PM
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and I will be in San Francisco (provided my flight gets out tomorrow morning) all week missing this potentially significant event for Barrie...I think another 20 cms is definitely on the cards by the end of Friday, looks like there could be a very significant fall overnight Tuesday into Wednesday...I've seen us get 40+cms from one of these before now!
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Jeremy404
post Nov 16 2014, 10:36 PM
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Wishful thinking for the SW bands to edge just ever more to the south so that our side of the Niagara Region can join in on the fun instead of just Buffalo tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Jeremy404: Nov 16 2014, 10:36 PM
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bigmt
post Nov 17 2014, 05:06 AM
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EC - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=son

Attached File  wrrnh.png ( 24.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
Snow squalls with widespread blowing snow are expected overnight and Tuesday.

A low pressure system is affecting much of southern Ontario this morning with periods of light snow. As this system moves away from Ontario tonight, much colder air and gusty winds will be ushered in. Flurries and snow squalls are expected to develop tonight near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay and become especially intense on Tuesday.

Areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay will be the most severely affected. However, areas quite far inland will be impacted as well.

Snowfall amounts of 10 to 20 cm are possible per 12 hour period. However, the main concern with these snow squalls will be very strong westerly winds gusting from 50 to as high as 80 km/h that will cause considerable amounts of blowing snow. As a result, frequent periods of very low to near nil visibilities with blizzard like conditions are expected, especially in exposed areas.

Travel in the areas under the snow squall watch is likely to become very hazardous to nearly impossible, especially on Tuesday. Consider postponing travel in these areas if possible.

These dangerous snow squall conditions are expected to improve somewhat on Wednesday.


QUOTE
A low pressure system is affecting much of southern Ontario this morning with periods of light snow. As this system moves away from Ontario tonight, much colder air and gusty winds will be ushered in. Current indications are suggesting that a very strong lake effect snow band will develop off of the east end of Lake Erie overnight and persist into Tuesday. This band is expected to remain mostly on the American side of the border where warnings are already in effect.

However, it is possible that this intense band may briefly move northward and affect portions of the southern Niagara region for a period of time tonight and Tuesday. If it does, accumulations in excess of 10 cm may occur. Gusty winds to 80 km/h would result in considerable amounts of blowing snow reducing visibility. The towns of Fort Erie and Port Colborne may be affected.


This post has been edited by bigmt: Nov 17 2014, 05:08 AM
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bigmt
post Nov 17 2014, 05:35 AM
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WPC snow probabilities for day 2, 10+cm:

Attached File  day2_psnow_gt_04.gif ( 16.64K ) Number of downloads: 2


Day 2, 20+cm:

Attached File  day2_psnow_gt_08.gif ( 16.48K ) Number of downloads: 4


Day 3, 10+cm:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_04.gif ( 16.41K ) Number of downloads: 1


Day 3, 20+cm:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_08.gif ( 15.78K ) Number of downloads: 1


Discussion - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BE COMMON TO THE LEE OF EACH GREAT
LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUE/TUE NIGHT WHEN THE CORE OF THE COLDEST
AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKES. LARGE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
A GIVEN WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SET UP. THUS THINK SOME
PLACES WILL BE MEASURING SNOW BY THE FOOT FOR THE EVENT.

THE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MI BY TUESDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THAN
NORTH OR NORTHWEST. THAT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION SHOULD FAVOR
AREAS TO THE LEE OF LAKE MI AND ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. BY WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BE
SCALING BACK ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND H92 AND H85 START WARMING.

WHILE PINPOINTING EXACTLY WERE A SNOW BAND WILL SET UP IS
IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHOWN BY THE
ENSEMBLES ROUGHLY PARALLELED THE IDEA THAT THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND THAT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
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JJ Snowlover
post Nov 17 2014, 06:12 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Nov 16 2014, 07:20 PM) *
Only once as a kid do I remember 10+cm falling on Hamilton from a Huron band.
It's so rare.
Strange too considering how far SE bands extend into PA and WV from Lake Erie.
Guess the lift from mountains down there helps.

If the winds a strong enough and in the right direction, Ottawa can even pick up Huron bands sometimes. I've never seen more than a couple cms from them and in a narrow area, but still very impressive that they make it all the way here blink.gif I dont think they will this time, winds look to bring them possibly further north

This post has been edited by JJ Snowlover: Nov 17 2014, 06:13 AM
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bigmt
post Nov 17 2014, 06:37 AM
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06z high-res NAM sim radar @ hour 24:

Attached File  rad24.gif ( 123.35K ) Number of downloads: 3


Hour 30:

Attached File  rad30.gif ( 109.38K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 36:

Attached File  rad36.gif ( 94.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 42:

Attached File  rad42.gif ( 96.04K ) Number of downloads: 3


Hour 48:

Attached File  rad48.gif ( 99.93K ) Number of downloads: 3
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Nov 17 2014, 07:38 AM
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I would have to think that some of the ski resorts would be considering making snow plus snowfall is some area they could easily be open for the season this week..
That would be excellent for resort operations and some local businesses around that area...
Personally I would drive to see the squalls!!!
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bigmt
post Nov 17 2014, 08:33 AM
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TWN - http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/arti...-commute/40131/

Attached File  15.jpeg ( 42.08K ) Number of downloads: 1
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players1
post Nov 17 2014, 09:01 AM
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well moving from Meaford to Fort Erie hasnt gotten me outta the squalls it seems, just harder to get a "cold" southwest wind to reek havoc down here.

Anyone have any insight to the squalls headed this way. hard to find relevant info on canadian sites. and the buffalo ones are saying it will be further south of the city with the main band going into it only for a few hours. any chance that squall will come further north than expected?

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bigmt
post Nov 17 2014, 09:24 AM
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QUOTE(players1 @ Nov 17 2014, 09:01 AM) *
well moving from Meaford to Fort Erie hasnt gotten me outta the squalls it seems, just harder to get a "cold" southwest wind to reek havoc down here.

Anyone have any insight to the squalls headed this way. hard to find relevant info on canadian sites. and the buffalo ones are saying it will be further south of the city with the main band going into it only for a few hours. any chance that squall will come further north than expected?


EC has you in a watch but the expectation seems to be that the bulk of the Lake Erie activity will be Stateside, which seems to fit with the latest short-range guidance.

Seems to be a good spot for some synoptic snow today in any case.
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bigmt
post Nov 17 2014, 09:27 AM
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Brett - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...ll-map/37492780

QUOTE
The combination of a strong westerly flow of air and unseasonably cold air will lead to an outbreak of heavy, lake-effect snow the first part of the week.

This outbreak will lead to road closures and dangerous whiteouts. Highway 400 north of Barrie will be an adventure to say the least over the next few days!

I will get into more detail later Monday, but we are easily looking at over 50 cm for some areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay this week. Snow drifts could reach over 2 meters in some areas.

The main region of concern for heavy snow off of Lake Huron is from Goderich to Hanover to the Bruce Peninsula, including Owen Sound.

Off of Georgian Bay, The region from Parry Sound to Bracebridge then down to Midland looks to be the area with the highest potential for major accumulations. A band of heavier snow could get down into Barrie Tuesday night as the winds come more out of the WNW rather than W.
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puttin
post Nov 17 2014, 09:44 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Nov 16 2014, 06:07 PM) *
Ok guys,

We are entering our second big LES event. I know many areas received heavy snowfall Thursday and Friday of last week, with a swath covering Parry Sound south to Barrie picked up 10-30cm of snow. I apologize I couldn't give any insight on that, as my computer was in getting repaired and it's very hard to give any updates on my phone. More snow is on the way. This thread is for discussion on the LES event beginning Tuesday and continuing into Saturday.

The winds will be changing frequently. The three primary directions will be WNW, W, and WSW. It will also be at times SW and NW. Due the changing directions, I am not expecting any epic accumulations, but I am picking up clues that some of these bands will be VERY heavy, at times delivering up to 10cm an hour to certain locations.

I will be updating this thread frequently this coming week with more details. As for the GTA, I am seeing a band coming off Lake Huron (a unique WNW flow) that could affect the area delivering a dusting to 5-6cm across many areas. There is potential for this band to even give higher amounts should it lock in for a few hours. I will be monitoring this.

Here's a preliminary map I just did up now indicating some accumulations this week. I do think that by Saturday most of Southern Ontario will be white as these bands will be moving around quite a bit.

Attached File  Squall_Event_Nov_17th_20th.jpg ( 238.96K ) Number of downloads: 10


Here's a map showing the main bands. Now they of course will not be this wide, however I wanted to show a visual of what will be happening. The areas in the #1 #2 and #3 zone will be seeing the highest chance of seeing accumulating snows as long bands develop, and will oscillate like a windshield wiper across a wide area. Band #3 will move even further south impacting the Kitchener area as well from time to time. So while it's possible one area may only get a few hours of squall activity, accumulations may be 3-5cm PER hour inland at times and even more closer to the lake. So it's extremely hard to pinpoint exact accumulations.

Attached File  Main_Bands_Squall_Event_Nov_2014.jpg ( 189.96K ) Number of downloads: 8



Thanks Travis for the heads up! Lets see if Newmarket get in on a bit of the action.....

This post has been edited by puttin: Nov 17 2014, 09:53 AM
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barrieON
post Nov 17 2014, 09:52 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Nov 17 2014, 09:27 AM) *

Fantastic. It'll be an interesting commute to the GTA. dry.gif
EC station seems to be having issues. Over the past few days, temps are consistently being reported to be several degrees warmer than actual. Station was reporting +7 on Friday, when we got 20cm of snow. What's worse is that several local media outlets and websites (including AccuWeather) are reporting these values. I can say with certainty it is certainly not raining and +3c right now.
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Jeremy404
post Nov 17 2014, 10:20 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Nov 17 2014, 05:35 AM) *
WPC snow probabilities for day 2, 10+cm:

Attached File  day2_psnow_gt_04.gif ( 16.64K ) Number of downloads: 2


Day 2, 20+cm:

Attached File  day2_psnow_gt_08.gif ( 16.48K ) Number of downloads: 4


Day 3, 10+cm:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_04.gif ( 16.41K ) Number of downloads: 1


Day 3, 20+cm:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_08.gif ( 15.78K ) Number of downloads: 1


Discussion - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml


Is it actually possible Niagara Region sees that much snow?!?
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bigmt
post Nov 17 2014, 12:23 PM
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https://twitter.com/BrettAWX

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