Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

190 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Winter 2016-17
plowguy
post Aug 3 2016, 03:07 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 537
Joined: 17-February 09
From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





Its that time of year. Snow quotes go out. Usually I have an idea of what to expect...somewhat. This year no clue. Any thoughts are always welcome. I hope all on this forum are having a great summer!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Aug 3 2016, 10:39 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 559
Joined: 16-January 13
Member No.: 28,061





Hey everyone. Just figured I'd chime I'm on your question plowguy about what to expect this winter. My thoughts at this point are that with the prospect of a weak La Niņa this fall and winter there is more than likely going to be more snow than last winter in southern regions of Ontario. Still quite early for any specifics but if we do get into a weak La Niņa this winter or even a enso neutral winter colder and snowier conditions are more likely. Of course there are a lot of other factors to take into account but at this early stage I think you are going to be a lot busier this winter than last. I might try putting out a winter forecast of my own later in the fall as by then there should be more solid information from the various models.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Aug 3 2016, 10:42 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowguy
post Aug 4 2016, 06:06 AM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 537
Joined: 17-February 09
From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Aug 3 2016, 11:39 PM) *
Hey everyone. Just figured I'd chime I'm on your question plowguy about what to expect this winter. My thoughts at this point are that with the prospect of a weak La Niņa this fall and winter there is more than likely going to be more snow than last winter in southern regions of Ontario. Still quite early for any specifics but if we do get into a weak La Niņa this winter or even a enso neutral winter colder and snowier conditions are more likely. Of course there are a lot of other factors to take into account but at this early stage I think you are going to be a lot busier this winter than last. I might try putting out a winter forecast of my own later in the fall as by then there should be more solid information from the various models.

Thank you for taking the time. I don't mind more snow the " lot more" isn't great.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Aug 4 2016, 04:31 PM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,588
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





Even an average winter snowfall would give me TWICE as much snow as last year's letdown. Neutral/Weak La Nina conditions in the pacific make it harder to get an idea on the coming winter which is now only four months away! ohmy.gif

We were complaining about winter dragging on in April four months ago rolleyes.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Aug 5 2016, 07:27 AM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,242
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Aug 4 2016, 05:31 PM) *
Even an average winter snowfall would give me TWICE as much snow as last year's letdown. Neutral/Weak La Nina conditions in the pacific make it harder to get an idea on the coming winter which is now only four months away! ohmy.gif

We were complaining about winter dragging on in April four months ago rolleyes.gif


It is very weird how you completely forget about what winter is like in summer and the other way round. This summer has completely obliterated memories of winter and its impossible to imagjne bejng fed up with the cold and the leafless trees, but the reality is that is life here for nigh on 7 months. I am going to milk every last drop I can from this summer before I start picturing the white stuff tumbling out of the sky again...althoigh I will be ready for it by then.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Aug 5 2016, 07:28 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Aug 13 2016, 12:54 PM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 559
Joined: 16-January 13
Member No.: 28,061





Has anyone seen the huge flip in the PDO? From being so positive for so long and now by this image it looks to have dropped to negative. You have to wonder if this is a blip in the road or if the -PDO has staying power. If it does this could have a huge impact on winter forecasts.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Aug 13 2016, 12:57 PM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  cdas_sflux_ssta_global_1.png ( 132.37K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Aug 13 2016, 04:23 PM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,588
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





A weak La Nina and -PDO combo remind me of winter 2011-2012 sad.gif Though I think the NAO was what really killed us that year. Anyway, if La Nina does develop it should put us in a much better position this year than last winter.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Aug 15 2016, 05:14 PM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,242
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





JAMSTEC flipflopped to warm and dry this winter...yawn! Hope not.

[attachment=293961:temp2.gl...1aug2016.gif]

Attached File  tprep.glob.DJF2017.1aug2016.gif ( 89.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Aug 15 2016, 05:15 PM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  temp2.glob.DJF2017.1aug2016.gif ( 66.76K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Aug 15 2016, 06:42 PM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,588
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





We don't usually have back to back mild winter's around here, they seem to be pretty rare. Nature usually balances things out but I guess there is always the chance...

Weak La Nina winter's snowfall: (Markham)

1964/1965: 173cm
1967/1968: 151cm
1971/1972: 217cm
1974/1975: 178cm
1983/1984: 215cm
1984/1985: 201cm
1995/1996: 170cm
2000/2001: 186cm
2008/2009: 233cm
2011/2012: 90cm

Only one bad apple in 10 seasons over the past 50 years.



--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Aug 15 2016, 07:28 PM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,242
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Aug 15 2016, 07:42 PM) *
We don't usually have back to back mild winter's around here, they seem to be pretty rare. Nature usually balances things out but I guess there is always the chance...

Weak La Nina winter's snowfall: (Markham)

1964/1965: 173cm
1967/1968: 151cm
1971/1972: 217cm
1974/1975: 178cm
1983/1984: 215cm
1984/1985: 201cm
1995/1996: 170cm
2000/2001: 186cm
2008/2009: 233cm
2011/2012: 90cm

Only one bad apple in 10 seasons over the past 50 years.


Wow, those are way above average...almost like Barrie winters. Lets hope we don't have a 2011/2012, could really use Mike's input round about now!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Aug 15 2016, 09:40 PM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 785
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Aug 15 2016, 07:42 PM) *
We don't usually have back to back mild winter's around here, they seem to be pretty rare. Nature usually balances things out but I guess there is always the chance...

Weak La Nina winter's snowfall: (Markham)

That's assuming we have a La Nina in the first place sad.gif Jamstec has backed way off from previous forecasts
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...st.1aug2016.gif shows...

Attached File  ssta.nino3.4.fcst.1aug2016.gif ( 30.34K ) Number of downloads: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Aug 16 2016, 07:06 AM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,242
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





Not everyone on the US forum is buying the JAMSTEC. Most of the other predictions are pointing towards a cooler or normal East this year, for example:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...5196160/video/1

There is also talk of a classic LES season round the lakes as they are super warm and some models are showing a good set up for a NW flow.

This shows a cool north central Canada with cold air for the East to tap into for storms, and incursions for LES

Attached File  glbT2mSeaInd5.gif ( 40.76K ) Number of downloads: 1


We see the warmer than normal temps really recede as winter approaches in the North

Attached File  t.gif ( 359.97K ) Number of downloads: 1


And lots of precip downwind of the Lakes:

Attached File  p.gif ( 334.43K ) Number of downloads: 4


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
travis3000
post Aug 16 2016, 08:22 AM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,566
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





Im expecting a more classic winter across Southern Ontario this season, with above normal snowfall. I think we will see a much more active LES season in the snowbelts. Wouldn't surprise me to see areas like Barrie get over 300cm this coming winter, over 400cm in the Midland to Muskoka/Orillia corridor. Even Toronto I think should fare well with 150cm+ .

Weak La Nina's historically have produced above average precip across the lower great lakes. Add in warmer than normal water temps (higher more intense LES) and a nice polar vortex which will at times be competing with a strong Pacific jet, I think the recipe is there for storms this winter. The battleground for snow/rain/ice will always be an issue though.

I think October will be warm, and things will change suddenly come November with a solid LES outbreak delivering the first snowfall for many areas. December will hold more chances for snow and cold compared to the last two.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Aug 16 2016, 08:24 AM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Aug 16 2016, 02:18 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 785
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





QUOTE(Lake effect @ Aug 16 2016, 08:06 AM) *
Not everyone on the US forum is buying the JAMSTEC. Most of the other predictions are pointing towards a cooler or normal East this year, for example:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...5196160/video/1

Scripps is also backing off their earlier forecasts. The current Nino3.4 forecast is at http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/pictures.html Archives of previous months (and the current month), are at http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/archive.html Here's a summary of how they've backed off their forecast. The forecast is usually issued approx 8 to 10 days into the month. June was an exception; issued May 30th, and did not slide a month. Read horizontally from left to right to see how each month's forecast has dropped.

CODE
Issue date  Apr   May   Jun?  Jul   Aug
                      (May 30)
AMJ  2016  -0.13 ***** ***** ***** *****
MJJ  2016  -0.77 -0.62 -0.53 ***** *****
JJA  2016  -1.36 -1.21 -1.10 ***** *****
JAS  2016  -1.82 -1.69 -1.59 -1.09 *****
ASO  2016  -2.12 -2.02 -1.93 -1.42 -1.12
SON  2016  -2.28 -2.20 -2.14 -1.68 -1.35
OND  2016  -2.36 -2.30 -2.25 -1.85 -1.50
NDJ  16/17 -2.38 -2.34 -2.30 -1.90 -1.56
DJF  16/17 -2.35 -2.32 -2.27 -1.85 -1.53
JFM  2017  ***** -2.16 -2.11 -1.69 -1.43
FMA  2017  ***** ***** ***** -1.46 -1.28
MAM  2017  ***** ***** ***** -1.20 -1.07
AMJ  2017  ***** ***** ***** ***** -0.86


This post has been edited by knorthern_knight: Aug 16 2016, 02:18 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Aug 16 2016, 04:02 PM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,588
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





Even a Neutral ENSO winter would put many of us in a better position that last year. Last winter was ruled by that hulking beast in the pacific putting a damper on cold and snowy conditions but he is long since dead.

Neutral winter's snowfall: (Buttonville)

1989-1990: 125cm
1990-1991: 126cm
1992-1993: 189cm*
1993-1994: 136cm*
1996-1997: 186cm
2001-2002: 114cm
2003-2004: 111cm*
2005-2006: 127cm*
2012-2013: 160cm
2013-2014: 200cm
2014-2015: 135cm

(* = following El Nino)


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Aug 16 2016, 06:31 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,242
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





QUOTE(travis3000 @ Aug 16 2016, 09:22 AM) *
Im expecting a more classic winter across Southern Ontario this season, with above normal snowfall. I think we will see a much more active LES season in the snowbelts. Wouldn't surprise me to see areas like Barrie get over 300cm this coming winter, over 400cm in the Midland to Muskoka/Orillia corridor. Even Toronto I think should fare well with 150cm+ .

Weak La Nina's historically have produced above average precip across the lower great lakes. Add in warmer than normal water temps (higher more intense LES) and a nice polar vortex which will at times be competing with a strong Pacific jet, I think the recipe is there for storms this winter. The battleground for snow/rain/ice will always be an issue though.

I think October will be warm, and things will change suddenly come November with a solid LES outbreak delivering the first snowfall for many areas. December will hold more chances for snow and cold compared to the last two.


I'd settle for that! This evening is very autumnal, got me dreaming of the white stuff flying.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Aug 17 2016, 04:22 PM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,588
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





^ Yesterday actually felt a lot like Fall. Overcast skies with a cool breeze, the shorter days becoming more noticeable with the cloud cover.



--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Aug 19 2016, 01:45 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 785
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





There's still hope for a moderate to strong La Nina, according to Jamstec http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1...orecast.html.en

QUOTE
Aug. 17, 2016
Prediction from 1st Aug., 2016

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model initialized with the SST condition observed on July 31st predicts a weak La Niņa/La Niņa Modoki state in coming months. Although the NCEP GODAS shows an anomalously cold subsurface condition almost all the way from central Pacific to eastern Pacific along the equator in July, the prediction has not picked the strong La Niņa/La Niņa Modoki signal yet. This might be a model bias due to the simple SST data assimilation scheme used in the initialization. However, we have noted similar prediction results in several other climate models.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Aug 21 2016, 05:16 PM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 785
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





Latest ENSO forecast from ECMWF at http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/s...-range-forecast looks like "La Nada". Here it is for...

September/October/November
Attached File  son.png ( 43.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


October/November/December
Attached File  ond.png ( 42.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


November/December/January
Attached File  ndj.png ( 41.84K ) Number of downloads: 0


December/January/February
Attached File  djf.png ( 41.09K ) Number of downloads: 0


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Aug 23 2016, 06:32 PM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,588
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





^Nice maps. "La Nada" conditions an improvement over last year but was still hopeful we could get into La Nina mode before winter starts.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

190 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 13th December 2017 - 04:08 AM