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> Tropical storm Irma - possibly Eastern Canada, Medium range uncertain
Lake effect
post Sep 2 2017, 06:25 AM
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Thought I'd start this in case the run below, this morning's GFS, transpires. Would be a very damaging scenario for Ottawa/Montreal, and other parts, if it does. Serious flooding and damaging winds. Will more likely head up the coast than come inland like this, but that could be nasty for NS and St John's.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png ( 166.33K ) Number of downloads: 4


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Sep 5 2017, 02:30 PM
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Lake effect
post Sep 2 2017, 06:31 AM
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Euro, further south next weekend, but could still track north and keep significant energy:

Attached File  ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png ( 150.03K ) Number of downloads: 0
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Lake effect
post Sep 2 2017, 06:34 AM
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Canadian, this trajectory might mean landfall somewhere in the North East, or could head out to sea, clipping Newfiebrit on the way.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Sep 2 2017, 06:34 AM
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travis3000
post Sep 2 2017, 09:34 AM
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Models all over the place. In my opinion this will hit somewhere between Florida and Nova Scotia. It's still too early to know.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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SNOWBOB11
post Sep 2 2017, 10:38 AM
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Good thread to of started. Definitely the chance for significant impact for many areas inland and further east. Will be keeping an eye on this one.
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Lake effect
post Sep 2 2017, 12:38 PM
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12Z GFS going a bit further south...Ontario, but weaker. I think come Tuesday or Wednesday we will have a better if it's going to affect Canada or not. For sure somewhere will get 10+ inches of rain, and 100km/hr + winds.

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Lake effect
post Sep 2 2017, 06:06 PM
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All over the shop still, but all models show a significant tropical storm hitting the East coast somewhere between South Carolina and Maine, then fading as it heads inland.
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SNOWBOB11
post Sep 2 2017, 07:48 PM
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Check out the barometric pressure of the storm before it makes landfall along the coast on the 18z GFS. 878mb, that's insane. It only rises to 908mb by the time it makes landfall.
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humidex
post Sep 3 2017, 08:10 AM
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My Wife (Lynnie) and I Bought a place on Baccaro Point, Nova Scotia. It is 1 mile from the Lighthouse and .8 mile from the radar site/ Environment Canada Weather Stn - Baccaro.
https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ns-37_metric_e.html

You must see the Baccaro Lighthouse drone video on Youtube link provided, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1eP5PZCt14
I will be watching the weather very closely, from my present location in Ontario, South of Peterborough, and North of Cobourg.
The house is well over 100 years old. I wonder how many wicked storms it has endured, and look forward to seeing some myself. Will update as weather and interesting things pop up. Oh , during renovations, we found the font page of a news paper from june 1934!
Humidex.
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Sep 3 2017, 08:21 AM
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Lets see how Irma does over the next 48 hours.
I do not see anything indicating OUT TO SEA at the moment, more likely a left turn back in the the coast.

Anyone see similarity to hurricane hazel for track straight up in to Ontario, some models are showing similar track Atlantic up to dying out.

Not building hype just curious, still long way to go and models are something nice to look at lets see which one wins.
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Sep 3 2017, 08:21 AM
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Lets see how Irma does over the next 48 hours.
I do not see anything indicating OUT TO SEA at the moment, more likely a left turn back in the the coast.

Anyone see similarity to hurricane hazel for track straight up in to Ontario, some models are showing similar track Atlantic up to dying out.

Not building hype just curious, still long way to go and models are something nice to look at lets see which one wins.
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Lake effect
post Sep 3 2017, 11:17 AM
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Models definitely going southerly at the moment, with landfall N.Florida Georgia area, then a track north west inland, but fizzling out well before it hits the border. Yes, no out to sea solutions at the moment, so well worth watching, but the trend is increasingly less impactful for us in the North.
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shane o mac
post Sep 3 2017, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Sep 3 2017, 01:17 PM) *
Models definitely going southerly at the moment, with landfall N.Florida Georgia area, then a track north west inland, but fizzling out well before it hits the border. Yes, no out to sea solutions at the moment, so well worth watching, but the trend is increasingly less impactful for us in the North.

Euro is OTS . but its been in consistent .
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Lake effect
post Sep 3 2017, 03:51 PM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Sep 3 2017, 02:37 PM) *
Euro is OTS . but its been in consistent .


Yes, I noticed that. GFS and Canadian have it going inland still. 12Z GFS:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png ( 176.59K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39__1_.png ( 176.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Sep 3 2017, 03:51 PM
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travis3000
post Sep 3 2017, 07:25 PM
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Just yesterday the Euro was showing a hit in Florida, now its out to sea? Talk about in-consistent.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Sep 3 2017, 07:33 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Sep 3 2017, 07:25 PM) *
Just yesterday the Euro was showing a hit in Florida, now its out to sea? Talk about in-consistent.


Incoseastant.
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Sep 3 2017, 07:52 PM
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This storm once it really gets rockn I would not be surprised to see category 5.
Trends right now Getting closer to Florida and heading up.
Some models hmon is showing 0z Saturday 9th 857 Mb and winds of 205.6 knots about 230 mph.
Insane to even see that on any computer model.
Still this beast will be devastating for someone
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Sep 3 2017, 07:52 PM
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Sep 3 2017, 07:59 PM
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Lake effect
post Sep 4 2017, 07:12 AM
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Yep, all going for a southern Florida entry, then heading up the coast and fizzling out...except the CMC, which shows it retaining some energy as it heads north. Just hope this doesn't head into the gulf, it would be very bad if it hit Texas or Louisiana again.
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