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> Winter 2017-18
Lake effect
post Oct 18 2017, 11:23 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Oct 17 2017, 10:58 PM) *
Latest Jamstec model came out for Oct a few days ago and it's now showing warmer than avg temps for Dec-Feb for much of north America. Its a bit of a flop from what it was showing with the last update in Sep which was for cooler than avg condition for many locations. This model often overdoes warmth in its long range but it's still noteworthy of the change.


I am very concerned about the dreaded SE ridge that made its presence felt last year, and is around now. It could be a real fly in the ointment and create lots of unpleasant variability around storm tracks crossing around our region. 2017/18 could be another cutter classic if we are unlucky.

Even after the churning the lakes will have experienced with all the recent wind, they are are still as warm as they were this time last year. If we get the right kinds of winds, we are in for a great LES season again.
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jpaik
post Oct 18 2017, 11:31 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Oct 18 2017, 12:23 PM) *
...
Even after the churning the lakes will have experienced with all the recent wind, they are are still as warm as they were this time last year. If we get the right kinds of winds, we are in for a great LES season again.


Sure, the LES season might be great. But I'm concerned about the warm temps in the lakes creating the same havoc in the Spring and Summer 2018. Too much uplift from warm water rains down, and flooding ensues. Much damage caused to low-lying areas, like the Toronto Islands.
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SNOWBOB11
post Oct 18 2017, 06:35 PM
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Couldnít agree more lake effect about the possibility of the ser sticking around this winter. As we know itís a high risk high reward deal. I think a lot has to do with what state the PDO decides itís going to take. It has cooled some recently but I think it may end up staying on the positive side of things going forward into winter. If thatís the case it may very well put a damper on La NiŮa in which case the ser becomes potentially more of a problem as it will have free range to let the storm track go too far inland for S.ON. I also think if this is the case the maritimes might be in for a blockbuster type winter for areas like NB and NF. Need to keep watching the PDO very closely imo.
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snowgeek93
post Oct 18 2017, 07:23 PM
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South east ridge isn't so bad as long as we can stay right on or to the north of it like last December which dumped nearly 70cm of snow on Markham.

It's situations like January and some of February 2017 we would like to avoid obviously.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowgeek93
post Oct 18 2017, 09:04 PM
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Brett Anderson's winter 2017/2018 forecast for Canada:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...utlook/70003021


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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SNOWBOB11
post Oct 19 2017, 10:27 PM
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Bretts winter forecast looks good. I think a setup like this is very possible if things stay the course of how they look like they might turn out with regards to the NiŮa. This winter should yield lots of storms tracking from the south into Ontario as is mentioned in the forecast. It will be a tricky situation if S ON stays on the warm or cold side of the systems but at least there should be lots to track.

I also agree with what is said that the main chance for snowstorms should be Jan-Feb. Not that there wonít be frozen precip chances in Dec but this may end up being a backloaded winter.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Oct 20 2017, 07:28 AM
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snowgeek93
post Oct 27 2017, 06:16 PM
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Anthony Farnell's winter forecast from Global smile.gif

https://globalnews.ca/news/3828438/canada-w...ather-forecast/


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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Lake effect
post Oct 27 2017, 09:12 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Oct 27 2017, 06:16 PM) *
Anthony Farnell's winter forecast from Global smile.gif

https://globalnews.ca/news/3828438/canada-w...ather-forecast/


I'm getting the feeling that storm track is going to be a bit more favourable for us here than last year. Lots of cold air on tap out west, warm lakes...could be good.
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Apocalypse
post Oct 28 2017, 09:28 AM
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Anyone know when Toronto usually get it's first snow on average? I can't seem to find the information.
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SNOWBOB11
post Oct 28 2017, 10:44 AM
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Iím not sure when the official average first snow occurs, but I can tell you it can vary quite a bit. Weíve had snow in October before or as late as mid December. Iíd say you should probably see at least some snow this year by end of November.
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Michael1
post Oct 29 2017, 05:06 PM
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S.W. B.C. awaits its first arctic intrusion of the season. The snow won't reach sea level with this one, but the cooler air will be welcome.
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Torontoweather
post Oct 30 2017, 05:03 AM
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Looks like I may miss a decent winter in southern Ontario/Quebec! Oh well! Enjoy everyone 🙂


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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SNOWBOB11
post Oct 30 2017, 10:05 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Oct 30 2017, 06:03 AM) *
Looks like I may miss a decent winter in southern Ontario/Quebec! Oh well! Enjoy everyone 🙂

Congratulations on your graduation toweather! By the way, I like the comment at the bottom of you post about WAA. Thatís funny.
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Torontoweather
post Oct 30 2017, 02:08 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Oct 30 2017, 11:05 AM) *
Congratulations on your graduation toweather! By the way, I like the comment at the bottom of you post about WAA. Thatís funny.


Thanks! Haha, good! There is a nerdy scientific meaning to it as well! wink.gif


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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SNOWBOB11
post Nov 1 2017, 07:24 AM
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First snow chance for S ON showing up on the GFS. Donít know whether it will happen or not but interesting to see none the less.

Attached File(s)
Attached File  360C9C83_C471_450C_B483_31B99A875F03.png ( 179.71K ) Number of downloads: 14
 
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dsichewski
post Nov 1 2017, 05:08 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Nov 1 2017, 08:24 AM) *
First snow chance for S ON showing up on the GFS. Donít know whether it will happen or not but interesting to see none the less.


Is the blue 540 line what would be referred to as the 0 line that we see on the other model maps?
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Nov 1 2017, 05:22 PM
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Current gfs is still showing snow Attached File  snku_acc.us_ne.png ( 337.22K ) Number of downloads: 8


This post has been edited by GreatWhiteTornado: Nov 1 2017, 05:25 PM
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SNOWBOB11
post Nov 1 2017, 05:46 PM
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QUOTE(dsichewski @ Nov 1 2017, 06:08 PM) *
Is the blue 540 line what would be referred to as the 0 line that we see on the other model maps?

Itís a measurement of thickness between 1000mb and 500md. The 540 line represents 5400 meters between the two pressure levels. Basically when thereís 5400 meters in thickness between the two you get a value that more or less equates to the freezing mark. So yes the 540 can be thought of as the 0 line or the snow/rain line for the most part. There can be minor variances but it usually is a good marker to go by.
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MrMusic
post Nov 2 2017, 07:59 AM
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I'm starting to get a little concerned about this SE Ridge look popping up more often on long range models.
Mind you, my expectations are insanely low to begin with. Snow in the actual winter months is all it would take to be better than last year. haha


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!




Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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puttin
post Nov 2 2017, 12:40 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Nov 2 2017, 08:59 AM) *
I'm starting to get a little concerned about this SE Ridge look popping up more often on long range models.
Mind you, my expectations are insanely low to begin with. Snow in the actual winter months is all it would take to be better than last year. haha


Funny, Brett's last graphic for the month of November in his blog predicted snow for the 6th - 8th of November. Let's see is he is right though I look to be in a snow hole at the moment....one thing I don't understand is why are their dry slots in storms in general?

thanks!

This post has been edited by puttin: Nov 2 2017, 12:47 PM
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