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> Major Snowsquall Outbreak, November 18th-20th Timeframe
travis3000
post Nov 12 2017, 08:11 PM
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The second lake effect snow outbreak it poised to hit this coming weekend, only this time expect bigger squalls, a longer event, with higher accumulations. I will continue to monitor this event as we head through the week including any changes I see.

Right now I'm expecting this to be a NW to SE orientation, at times being a WNW to ESE orientation. Many areas will see snow, some will see very impressive amounts. While it's too soon to start issuing a city by city snowfall amount I'm going to go out on a lim and put out my initial map where I think the heaviest snows will fall.

Remember, the dates may change. There's a chance we won't see any major activity until into Sunday (19th) as seen on the CMC. The GFS is aggressive and shows a long duration major event. By Wednesday we will have a much better idea.

Attached File  Nov_18_20th_2017_Squalls.jpg ( 203.17K ) Number of downloads: 15


Areas in the high risk zone have a good chance at over 30CM IMO at this point. More to come this week....

This post has been edited by travis3000: Nov 12 2017, 08:20 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Nov 12 2017, 08:28 PM
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Thanks Travis hope you get nice welcome to Barrie epic squalls
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Lake effect
post Nov 12 2017, 08:39 PM
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Yep, this week could well be the last that we see grass in our backyard till spring. A serious LES event followed by normal conditions could see a sustained snowpack.

Some places will get 2-3 feet if the GFS is right.
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Jeremy404
post Nov 12 2017, 09:28 PM
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Where would Guelph and Richmond Hill fall under here?

Both seems to be border lol
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Lake effect
post Nov 13 2017, 07:26 AM
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Too early for exact predictions. Today the GFS starts with a more Westerly flow, creating a mega squall several kilometers long nailing places from Thunder Bay through south of Barrie and even Ottawa. We will have a much better idea by Thursday I think. Either way next week is looking more like mid January than November.
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snowgeek93
post Nov 13 2017, 09:28 AM
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Hopefully some of these bands can affect us down here. If not at least snowpack is starting to build across the region. It's only November after all.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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PGM
post Nov 13 2017, 10:19 AM
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A foot of nice fresh snow would be great. Hoping that'll be a reality in one week. laugh.gif


--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Coldest temperature: -7.7*C (November 10th)
Days entirely below freezing: 3+

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: ongoing (December 12th)
Seasonal total: 17cm
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travis3000
post Nov 13 2017, 11:37 AM
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Models are doing their normal changes. I do believe this event has the ability to deliver some impressive amounts. The position of the low pressure system will determine the eventual wind direction. Todays 12z GFS has the low more south compared to yesterday. It is showing squalls lasting right into Monday night (a 72 hour event). Wind direction from the WNW with a mega squall aligning from Sauble Beach/Owen Sound down through Shelburne/Orangeville/Alliston right into the GTA and across Lake Ontario into NY state.

Lots of fun coming for everyone!

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_11_13_at_11.41.39_AM.png ( 1.34MB ) Number of downloads: 5


This post has been edited by travis3000: Nov 13 2017, 11:42 AM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Nov 13 2017, 12:56 PM
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Alliston... wink.gif
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Astronomer
post Nov 13 2017, 02:29 PM
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Hmmm... This strikes me as bit pessimistic. Thoughts?

Attached File  Untitled_2.jpg ( 129.72K ) Number of downloads: 12




This post has been edited by Astronomer: Nov 13 2017, 02:43 PM
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PGM
post Nov 13 2017, 05:15 PM
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QUOTE(Astronomer @ Nov 13 2017, 02:29 PM) *
Hmmm... This strikes me as bit pessimistic. Thoughts?

Attached File  Untitled_2.jpg ( 129.72K ) Number of downloads: 12


I think so. 18z GFS still has a pretty strong system - 975mb low near Sudbury on early Saturday.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Coldest temperature: -7.7*C (November 10th)
Days entirely below freezing: 3+

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: ongoing (December 12th)
Seasonal total: 17cm
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travis3000
post Nov 13 2017, 08:03 PM
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18z GFS has temps spiking to 10C Saturday across Southern ON.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Nov 13 2017, 10:38 PM
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QUOTE(Astronomer @ Nov 13 2017, 02:29 PM) *
Hmmm... This strikes me as bit pessimistic. Thoughts?

Attached File  Untitled_2.jpg ( 129.72K ) Number of downloads: 12


Still very good setup for sustained NW winds. Strength of the sytem not changing tbat. Looking at 2-3 of LES.
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Nov 14 2017, 11:07 AM
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Gfs running let's see what it shows.
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Nov 14 2017, 11:31 AM
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Gfs is really not showing anything too crazy.

The only issue I see is it would be nice to see colder temps, with temps above 0 snowsqualls will be limited I believe.
I guess sampling is approx tomorrow night then things should be more clear on position, I read this somewhere I can't remember at the moment to cite info

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...us_ne&dpdt=
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Lake effect
post Nov 14 2017, 12:41 PM
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QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Nov 14 2017, 11:31 AM) *
Gfs is really not showing anything too crazy.

The only issue I see is it would be nice to see colder temps, with temps above 0 snowsqualls will be limited I believe.
I guess sampling is approx tomorrow night then things should be more clear on position, I read this somewhere I can't remember at the moment to cite info

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...us_ne&dpdt=


Those maps are not good for picking up accumulations off Georgian Bay, need the mesoscale to get a better idea. Last weekend the NAM 3k was very good, and actually for much of last winters squall season I found it excellent.

Definitely looking at less penetration with today's runs, however, with the NNW to NW winds forecast, once temps get below zero, there will be plenty of action near the lakes. Anywhere from Orillia through Collingwood and 30-40kms inland will get a pretty good dollop, up to 40cms in places given the duration.

Same goes for the squall off Huron, which will penetrate further inland, and give localized amounts of 50cm or more.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Nov 14 2017, 12:41 PM
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travis3000
post Nov 14 2017, 10:16 PM
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Models less impressive today for the LES outbreak. Winds shift into the SW quickly according to the CMC (by MON), and by TUES on the GFS. This would reduce amounts. Will be looking at the runs tomorrow to see if there's consistency.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Nov 15 2017, 07:47 AM
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Member No.: 27,345





QUOTE(travis3000 @ Nov 14 2017, 10:16 PM) *
Models less impressive today for the LES outbreak. Winds shift into the SW quickly according to the CMC (by MON), and by TUES on the GFS. This would reduce amounts. Will be looking at the runs tomorrow to see if there's consistency.


Yep, gone from epic to damp squib in two days for the Georgian Bay squall. Be lucky to get more than 10cm in Barrie from this one with the current forecast. The Huron squall will still be significant though, and some places could get a foot or more.
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travis3000
post Nov 15 2017, 10:53 AM
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I'll be issuing an updated accumulation map later today after the 12z models roll in.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Khaled
post Nov 15 2017, 11:19 AM
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Latest GFS update (12z) snow accumulation map. A big change from the 06 z output.

This post has been edited by Khaled: Nov 15 2017, 11:32 AM
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Attached File  sn10_acc_us_ne.png ( 389.55K ) Number of downloads: 17
Attached File  sn10_acc_us_ne_06_z.png ( 381.82K ) Number of downloads: 11
 
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