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> Major Snowsquall Outbreak, November 18th-20th Timeframe
GreatWhiteTornad...
post Nov 15 2017, 03:45 PM
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Think by tomorrow we will have a much clearer picture of what to expect, location of the storm will be quite a factor.
Unless I see temps below freezing a few degrees I won't be to amp up in thoughts towards substantial squall event.

Stepping back if someone said in mid October we could be seeing second round of squalls before Nov 20, we would all be delighted.

I have never seen snow in Barrie Oro area really hold until Dec 1, I recall I think 1996 was similar type weather, started with snow, melt, snow melt, then snow to our roof in Oro.

I anticipate this being a great year for Barrie area regardless
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Astronomer
post Nov 15 2017, 03:56 PM
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Environment Canada Just posted this:

Attached File  Nov_19_Squalls.png ( 293.08K ) Number of downloads: 23
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puttin
post Nov 15 2017, 05:04 PM
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QUOTE(Astronomer @ Nov 15 2017, 03:56 PM) *
Environment Canada Just posted this:

Attached File  Nov_19_Squalls.png ( 293.08K ) Number of downloads: 23

Cool, thanks. Hope it comes to fruition!!! Waiting for further model information...
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Apocalypse
post Nov 15 2017, 05:38 PM
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18z GFS looks colder and more snowy than the last run.

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_40.png ( 160.57K ) Number of downloads: 14


Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_41.png ( 152.77K ) Number of downloads: 9
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Lake effect
post Nov 15 2017, 05:59 PM
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QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Nov 15 2017, 03:45 PM) *
Think by tomorrow we will have a much clearer picture of what to expect, location of the storm will be quite a factor.
Unless I see temps below freezing a few degrees I won't be to amp up in thoughts towards substantial squall event.

Stepping back if someone said in mid October we could be seeing second round of squalls before Nov 20, we would all be delighted.

I have never seen snow in Barrie Oro area really hold until Dec 1, I recall I think 1996 was similar type weather, started with snow, melt, snow melt, then snow to our roof in Oro.

I anticipate this being a great year for Barrie area regardless


I've only been here 6 years and I can think of at least two winters where we had some pretty good squall events in Barrie, and for the snow to stick into December...usually for a GLC to wash it all away. One year we had a whole week of it.
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travis3000
post Nov 15 2017, 06:11 PM
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Second updated map for this event, looking much less intense compared to a couple days ago. I'm concerned about surface temperature profile for many areas. Sunday afternoon it's looking like temps will struggle to go below freezing, meaning we won't be dealing with as much cold air as depicted before. Also, Monday also has some surface temp issues, the GFS has highs hitting 3-4C which would throw a big wrench into accumulations.

Our best bet for accumulating squalls will be Sunday evening into Monday morning when temps will drop below 0C.

Attached File  SquallMap_Version2.png ( 357.53K ) Number of downloads: 16


This post has been edited by travis3000: Nov 15 2017, 06:21 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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puttin
post Nov 15 2017, 07:10 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Nov 15 2017, 06:11 PM) *
Second updated map for this event, looking much less intense compared to a couple days ago. I'm concerned about surface temperature profile for many areas. Sunday afternoon it's looking like temps will struggle to go below freezing, meaning we won't be dealing with as much cold air as depicted before. Also, Monday also has some surface temp issues, the GFS has highs hitting 3-4C which would throw a big wrench into accumulations.

Our best bet for accumulating squalls will be Sunday evening into Monday morning when temps will drop below 0C.

Attached File  SquallMap_Version2.png ( 357.53K ) Number of downloads: 16

If I might ask, what is the difference between the model you use and Environment Canada uses? I do trust your instincts more Travis... Just curious as to their 10-15 cm for areas stretching to York Region.. Too bad, it had a lot of excitement. All part of the fun of being here. Here's hoping things change as we get closer....
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PGM
post Nov 15 2017, 07:44 PM
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Not-so-major snowsquall outbreak

This post has been edited by PGM: Nov 15 2017, 07:44 PM


--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Coldest temperature: -7.7*C (November 10th)
Days entirely below freezing: 3+

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: ongoing (December 12th)
Seasonal total: 17cm
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travis3000
post Nov 15 2017, 09:55 PM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Nov 15 2017, 07:10 PM) *
If I might ask, what is the difference between the model you use and Environment Canada uses? I do trust your instincts more Travis... Just curious as to their 10-15 cm for areas stretching to York Region.. Too bad, it had a lot of excitement. All part of the fun of being here. Here's hoping things change as we get closer....


My thoughts are that the temperatures in the GTA will be too warm for anything to accumulate. Also, with a lack of true arctic air behind this system it's my opinion that these bands will not be as strong as initially thought. Let's hope as the models come in tomorrow we see a little more cold air behind the low pressure because that would help strengthen these bands.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Nov 15 2017, 10:37 PM
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Could the low become more amped and draw in colder air, hoping for trend down for people in the snow belt.

I was looking at gfs temps and there is some shots of cold showing which leads me to believe we may get in to a more active pattern.

When I see minus 10 temps, I know it can be unreliable but does indicate cold possibilities coming
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puttin
post Nov 16 2017, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Nov 15 2017, 10:37 PM) *
Could the low become more amped and draw in colder air, hoping for trend down for people in the snow belt.

I was looking at gfs temps and there is some shots of cold showing which leads me to believe we may get in to a more active pattern.

When I see minus 10 temps, I know it can be unreliable but does indicate cold possibilities coming


Funny E.C. still predicting this snow event... not sure if this is what is gonna happen or what... I'm thinking no, but they do have "low confidence" in their graphic...

Attached File(s)
Attached File  Sunday_Snow_Squalls.png ( 294.77K ) Number of downloads: 6
 
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snowbelt
post Nov 16 2017, 08:05 PM
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I know it doesn't fall in this time frame but squalls developed off of G Bay this evening giving my area a quick 2cm of accumulation . Looking forward to every ones insight on this weekends storm/squalls
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PGM
post Nov 17 2017, 08:27 AM
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Still appears to be snow squall potential November 21st - 23rd off Huron.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Coldest temperature: -7.7*C (November 10th)
Days entirely below freezing: 3+

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: ongoing (December 12th)
Seasonal total: 17cm
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Lake effect
post Nov 18 2017, 09:56 AM
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So this is clearly not going to be the widespread outbreak that was anticipated at the beginning of the week, but for a lucky few who live in a fairly tight corridor, there could be a quick and dirty 15-20cms.

The squalls won't get properly organized till Sunday night. There will be brief squalls off Huron and GB passing quickly across areas giving maybe up to 5cms in the black zones, with the odd place getting 10cm in the orange zones. Then on Sunday night a band gets organized and hits an area aligned along a WNW to ESE line off GB, from the western fringes of Barrie to the west of Orillia. The temps will be low inland, and the lakes are warm, so there could be some very quick accumulations of 10-20cms, and locally where the band spends most time, 25cms (last year we got 20cms in less than 2 hours off one of these). these will happen sometime between midnight Sunday and mid morning Monday. Unfortunately any snow will begin to melt by Tuesday, but if there is more than 20cms should last easily till the next cold air passing through:

NAM 3k 1am Monday

Attached File  nam3kmmon_1am.png ( 201.62K ) Number of downloads: 2


NAM 3k 4am Monday

Attached File  nam3kmmon_4am.png ( 202.94K ) Number of downloads: 2


NAM 3k 9am Sunday

Attached File  nam3kmmon_9am.png ( 198.87K ) Number of downloads: 1


The winds which precede the squalls by an hour or so:

Attached File  wind_10pm_sunday.gif ( 32.24K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  wind_4am_monday.gif ( 30.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


My predictions:

black trace - 5cms

Orange/brown 5-10cms

red 10-20cms

Attached File  squalls_on_19_20th_nov.jpg ( 259.98K ) Number of downloads: 5


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travis3000
post Nov 18 2017, 12:11 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Nov 18 2017, 09:56 AM) *
So this is clearly not going to be the widespread outbreak that was anticipated at the beginning of the week, but for a lucky few who live in a fairly tight corridor, there could be a quick and dirty 15-20cms.

The squalls won't get properly organized till Sunday night. There will be brief squalls off Huron and GB passing quickly across areas giving maybe up to 5cms in the black zones, with the odd place getting 10cm in the orange zones. Then on Sunday night a band gets organized and hits an area aligned along a WNW to ESE line off GB, from the western fringes of Barrie to the west of Orillia. The temps will be low inland, and the lakes are warm, so there could be some very quick accumulations of 10-20cms, and locally where the band spends most time, 25cms (last year we got 20cms in less than 2 hours off one of these). these will happen sometime between midnight Sunday and mid morning Monday. Unfortunately any snow will begin to melt by Tuesday, but if there is more than 20cms should last easily till the next cold air passing through:

NAM 3k 1am Monday

Attached File  nam3kmmon_1am.png ( 201.62K ) Number of downloads: 2


NAM 3k 4am Monday

Attached File  nam3kmmon_4am.png ( 202.94K ) Number of downloads: 2


NAM 3k 9am Sunday

Attached File  nam3kmmon_9am.png ( 198.87K ) Number of downloads: 1


The winds which precede the squalls by an hour or so:

Attached File  wind_10pm_sunday.gif ( 32.24K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  wind_4am_monday.gif ( 30.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


My predictions:

black trace - 5cms

Orange/brown 5-10cms

red 10-20cms

Attached File  squalls_on_19_20th_nov.jpg ( 259.98K ) Number of downloads: 5


Great info! Based on my current observations I would have to mostly agree with your map.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Nov 18 2017, 12:19 PM
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My final map for this event....

Like lake effect mentioned the biggest threat will be from Sunday evening through Monday morning. Winds will be shifting a tad, but the longest alignment looks to be WNW to ESE with the primary band forming along the extreme southern shore of Georgian Bay from Owen Sound/Collingwood/Wasaga across Simcoe County towards Barrie, Innisfil, Northern Essa, and up towards Springwater and Oro Medonte. In this zone I would expect the highest accumulations of between 13 and 20cm.

Attached File  Final_Map_Nov_19_20th.jpg ( 171.89K ) Number of downloads: 10


This post has been edited by travis3000: Nov 18 2017, 12:22 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Nov 18 2017, 02:36 PM
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Praise indeed. The move to Barrie is already paying off eh?
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Lake effect
post Nov 18 2017, 08:15 PM
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Snow squall watch issued, although looking at the 18Z I'm thinking the main action is going to be slightly to the East of Barrie now along highway 11, Oro to Orillia:

Alerts for: Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Watches
3:21 PM EST Saturday 18 November 2017
Snow squall watch in effect for:

Barrie - Collingwood - Hillsdale
Midland - Coldwater - Orr Lake
Snow squalls are expected to develop. Under the snow squall bands, visibilities will be significantly reduced due to the heavy snow, and snow will quickly accumulate.

Snowsqualls will likely form to the lee of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay on Sunday into Sunday night as northwesterly winds bring colder air into the region. Local amounts of over 15 cm within a 12-hour period are possible.

Travel may be hazardous due to sudden changes in the weather.

Snow squall watches are issued when conditions are favourable for the formation of bands of snow that could produce intense accumulating snow or near zero visibilities.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #ONStorm.

Follow:ATOM feedATOM

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Nov 18 2017, 08:15 PM
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Lake effect
post Nov 18 2017, 10:32 PM
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Yep, .ooking like Orillia will get this one:

Attached File  Screenshot_20171118_223003.jpg ( 190.08K ) Number of downloads: 1
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Apocalypse
post Nov 19 2017, 03:35 AM
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Starting to change over to snow here. Nothing sticking though.
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