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> December 6 - 15(?) Cold/LES Potential
PGM
post Nov 29 2017, 08:51 AM
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The upcoming cold blast is looking pretty nice. Eastern trough pattern with the polar vortex split could bring even colder temperatures the following week (December 10-17). With the warm lakes, I figured this is worthy of starting a thread. Could be a major event?
Attached File  coldblast.png ( 147.34K ) Number of downloads: 5


This post has been edited by PGM: Dec 10 2017, 08:21 PM


--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Coldest temperature: -7.7*C (November 10th)
Days entirely below freezing: 3+

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: ongoing (December 12th)
Seasonal total: 17cm
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PGM
post Nov 29 2017, 09:02 AM
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First blast of cold air.
Attached File  euro1.png ( 322.14K ) Number of downloads: 3

Attached File  gfs2.png ( 311.21K ) Number of downloads: 2


Long range potential. Lots of displaced polar air from the Bering Sea / Eastern Russia region.
Attached File  gfs3.png ( 308.21K ) Number of downloads: 7



--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Coldest temperature: -7.7*C (November 10th)
Days entirely below freezing: 3+

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: ongoing (December 12th)
Seasonal total: 17cm
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snowgeek93
post Nov 29 2017, 01:16 PM
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Look at all that blue! Wonderful!


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowbelt
post Nov 30 2017, 01:24 AM
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Brrrrrrrrrrrr.........
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knorthern_knight
post Nov 30 2017, 09:44 AM
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Time to dig out my FIM scripts. Here are some surface temperature forecast maps for 12Z (7:00 AM EST), near what should be the daily low temps. Temperatures are in "ye olde Fahrenheit" scale. The cold outbreak goes on a few days more beyond this, but accuracy/confidence is decreasing.

Attached File  temp_2m_f180.png ( 63.69K ) Number of downloads: 5

Attached File  temp_2m_f204.png ( 65.34K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f228.png ( 67.04K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f252.png ( 65.79K ) Number of downloads: 1
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Nov 30 2017, 09:51 PM
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I want that cold...
Gfs and climate prediction centre definitely showing a change
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tml78
post Dec 1 2017, 02:59 PM
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I see AccuWeather forcast for GTA looks promising. How cold do you think we can get in the next 2-3 weeks. Any chance we could get down to the -15's or colder for GTA?
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plowguy
post Dec 1 2017, 03:56 PM
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Cold is good, but if its dry I 'd rather it stay warm!
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markj138
post Dec 1 2017, 04:28 PM
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QUOTE(tml78 @ Dec 1 2017, 02:59 PM) *
I see AccuWeather forcast for GTA looks promising. How cold do you think we can get in the next 2-3 weeks. Any chance we could get down to the -15's or colder for GTA?


The brunt of the cold will be in the plains/midwest,plus with the lakes being so warm it will be modified here so i would say no to a -15 day time high but yes to an over night low.
It looks like Dec 8-11 we will be suppressed but look out for some thing in the Dec 12-15 time frame if we can get that trough position a little further West.
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snowgeek93
post Dec 1 2017, 05:43 PM
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We've seen snowstorms and clippers under this type of pattern before so I don't see why it can't happen again this time around.

I hope it's something like last December tbh.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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markj138
post Dec 1 2017, 06:35 PM
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We have to keep an eye on a clipper that might affect the region Dec 9-10

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png ( 194.16K ) Number of downloads: 4


Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_37.png ( 164.4K ) Number of downloads: 4


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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 1 2017, 08:07 PM
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That system around the 9th does look interesting. Looks like there is some moisture moving up the coast at the same time as the clipper is moving through the lakes. If the clipper can pull some moisture from the disturbance along the coast it could end up as something interesting to track. Euro is less impressive looking with the clipper but itís at the end of its run so thereís much time for changes.
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 1 2017, 08:17 PM
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Also lots of other potential disturbances showing up on the GFS op. I think after we get the initial cutter and the cold gets pulled in, we should see several good chances of seeing frozen wintery precip.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Dec 1 2017, 08:18 PM
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 1 2017, 09:32 PM
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Looking at the FIM, after going below freezing on the 7th, the temperature stays below freezing to the end of the forecast period at the 15th. Even if it does happen, it's still a long way to the granddaddy below-freezing streak at Toronto Pearson from December 26, 1976 to February 2, 1977. Yes, the entire month of January 1977 had a MAXIMUM temperature of -1.3C. That was the time that people were freaking about "The Coming Ice Age"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_861us8D9M
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markj138
post Dec 2 2017, 12:19 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Dec 1 2017, 08:07 PM) *
That system around the 9th does look interesting. Looks like there is some moisture moving up the coast at the same time as the clipper is moving through the lakes. If the clipper can pull some moisture from the disturbance along the coast it could end up as something interesting to track. Euro is less impressive looking with the clipper but itís at the end of its run so thereís much time for changes.


0Z GFS looked even better over all with a couple of snow chances including the clipper on the 9th.
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markj138
post Dec 2 2017, 12:20 AM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Dec 1 2017, 09:32 PM) *
Looking at the FIM, after going below freezing on the 7th, the temperature stays below freezing to the end of the forecast period at the 15th. Even if it does happen, it's still a long way to the granddaddy below-freezing streak at Toronto Pearson from December 26, 1976 to February 2, 1977. Yes, the entire month of January 1977 had a MAXIMUM temperature of -1.3C. That was the time that people were freaking about "The Coming Ice Age"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_861us8D9M


I got cold just watching that video laugh.gif
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markj138
post Dec 2 2017, 06:36 PM
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This has that LES look to it!

Attached File  610prcp_new.thumb.gif.13284d7b564792b0b1281dcc9805e994.gif ( 90.43K ) Number of downloads: 7

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snowgeek93
post Dec 2 2017, 08:23 PM
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^ Hopefully there's some snowstorms and clippers with that as well wink.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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travis3000
post Dec 2 2017, 11:55 PM
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Wed-Thurs LES event right now is looking more like a W to E with focus over Muskoka, at times oscillating into Orillia and even up towards Powassan and North Bay as winds veer into the WNW and SW. But not looking like a NW to SE orientation right now, so areas like London/Barrie/GTA look safe.

If things change I'll let you guys know and issue my map early this coming week.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Dec 2 2017, 11:58 PM
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00z GFS showing no major storms over the next 15 days, a couple of disorganized clippers and fronts will paint most of Southern ON white however. A few LES outbreaks thrown in, favouring a more W to E orientation from what Im seeing.

Also a couple of systems from the south worth watching that graze our borders. Wouldn't take much to nudge them north.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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