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> December 6 - 15(?) Cold/LES Potential
snowgeek93
post Dec 3 2017, 10:44 AM
Post #21




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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Dec 3 2017, 12:58 AM) *
00z GFS showing no major storms over the next 15 days, a couple of disorganized clippers and fronts will paint most of Southern ON white however. A few LES outbreaks thrown in, favouring a more W to E orientation from what Im seeing.

Also a couple of systems from the south worth watching that graze our borders. Wouldn't take much to nudge them north.

Still a week out so I'm sure we can get some changes to that outlook. That last thing we need is cold with nothing but green grass.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 3 2017, 02:15 PM
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The FIM has backed off a bit, with areas near the Great Lakes occasionally poking above zero during the daytime. But it still shows the cold hanging around at least to the end of the forecast period, December 16th. It covers the US midwest through to the US Northeast.
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 5 2017, 12:21 AM
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According to FIM, night time lows below freezing in the GTA, with temps poking above feezing during the day, next few days. By about a week or so, accuracy slips. It shows the cold sticking around at least to the 18th, which I accept. But the cold may be overdone somewhat. Here are the 12z (7:00 AM EST) prog maps (a good proxy for the overnight low) for the 6th through the 9th...

Attached File  temp_2m_f048.png ( 64.04K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  temp_2m_f072.png ( 64.96K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  temp_2m_f096.png ( 68.9K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  temp_2m_f120.png ( 68.64K ) Number of downloads: 0
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players1
post Dec 5 2017, 10:09 AM
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waking up to a Snow squall watch was a nice thing this morning. possibility of 15cms by tomorrow evening sounds great...hopefully the squall wont swing to far south Thursday and Friday, so that it wont move back into Southern Niagara Region.


Fort Erie Forecast.

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Lake effect
post Dec 5 2017, 12:56 PM
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Latest GFS still showing a mostly West to East orientation for the first few days, but after that multiple disturbances and clippers will mean that many areas around the lakes, including those on a NW to SE allignment will get into the action. I'm thinking that places like the Bruce Peninsula, Huntsville and Parry Sound will get upwards of 70-100 cms in the next two weeks, with Barrie and places North of London getting about 30-50. I'm off to Atlanta on Thursday for five days...expecting at least 10-15cms in Barrie by my return.
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travis3000
post Dec 5 2017, 08:14 PM
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Late Wednesday night into Thursday is when I expect the worst threat for Simcoe County (Midland/Orillia/Barrie) as well as Kincardine down into Shelburne, Orangeville.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Dec 5 2017, 08:21 PM
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Attached File  LES_Outbreak_Dec_5th_8th.jpg ( 529.74K ) Number of downloads: 14


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Dec 5 2017, 10:34 PM
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I think tonight is Gateway to winter for sure at end of the cold snap I believe we will all have some snow on the ground...

Happy winter everyone, drive safe and enjoy
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plowguy
post Dec 6 2017, 05:25 AM
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QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Dec 5 2017, 10:34 PM) *
I think tonight is Gateway to winter for sure at end of the cold snap I believe we will all have some snow on the ground...

Happy winter everyone, drive safe and enjoy

I don't know. Travis's map has a pretty dry riverbed running right along the 401. I do like your positive attitude though tongue.gif
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plowguy
post Dec 6 2017, 07:24 AM
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TWN now calling for 5 cms Sat and another 2-4 Monday. Back to work.
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snowbelt
post Dec 6 2017, 11:09 AM
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Some pretty intense squalls just south of Parry Sound right now . I would expect some decent accumulations in these areas as Travis and Lake effect mentioned . Some light squalls in my area of Dufferin last night

This post has been edited by snowbelt: Dec 6 2017, 11:10 AM
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travis3000
post Dec 6 2017, 09:55 PM
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I spoke to my aunt who lives in Parry Sound, ground is white but only 3cm accumulated believe it or not. This was around 9pm, I notice there's a pretty intense band moving through right now. Here in Barrie we are all white with a cm down, I spoke to family out by Mansfield (Airport rd) and their ground is all white as well. Alliston Im told has a trace down with things slowly becoming white.

Welcome to winter guys!

Saturday looks like a system will affect our area. Nothing serious but enough to put down some accumulations. More lake effect after! Oh what a busy time.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Dec 7 2017, 04:19 PM
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Barrie going to get in to the squall shortly..
Looks like even a few hours would be decent to get 5 to 10cm..

Hoping for you guys up there
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Lake effect
post Dec 7 2017, 04:40 PM
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QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Dec 7 2017, 04:19 PM) *
Barrie going to get in to the squall shortly..
Looks like even a few hours would be decent to get 5 to 10cm..

Hoping for you guys up there


I think most of it will stay just north hitting highway 11 between Barrie and Orillia.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Dec 7 2017, 04:40 PM
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travis3000
post Dec 7 2017, 05:54 PM
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Parry Sound got creamed last night, 30cm on the ground there now according to my aunt who lives there. It' a winter wonderland. I figured that squall was going to do some damage.

Barrie got a dusting, not enough to measure though. I thought things would get more intense but that band shifted a little north again and weakened somewhat.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Dec 7 2017, 06:00 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Dec 7 2017, 06:54 PM) *
Parry Sound got creamed last night, 30cm on the ground there now according to my aunt who lives there. It' a winter wonderland. I figured that squall was going to do some damage.

Barrie got a dusting, not enough to measure though. I thought things would get more intense but that band shifted a little north again and weakened somewhat.

Ah, the time of year where my blood starts to boil from hearing how awesome it is up in the snowbelts... tongue.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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travis3000
post Dec 7 2017, 10:06 PM
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Member No.: 12,822





Some incredible 10cm/hour accumulations in Montreal River right now from this epic squall.

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_07_at_10.03.40_PM.jpg ( 777.88K ) Number of downloads: 1


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowbelt
post Dec 8 2017, 01:27 AM
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From: Northern Dufferin County
Member No.: 30,103





^That's an impressive squall there Travis . Just got home to find a little bit of accumulation here . Looks like 3-4cm . Starting to look and feel like winter in these parts !!!
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Jeremy404
post Dec 8 2017, 04:47 AM
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Look's like the Saturday clipper has turned into a nothingburger per TWN's forecast
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players1
post Dec 8 2017, 08:18 AM
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we are getting into some of the action in Southern Niagara region this morning.
South of Niagara falls its snow covered roads and accumulating snow.


Attached File  Qew.PNG ( 449.16K ) Number of downloads: 0
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