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> Potent Clipper To Affect Southern & Eastern ON, Monday/Tuesday December 11th/12th
travis3000
post Dec 7 2017, 05:57 PM
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This thread is for the clipper that runs are showing. I think it has potential to stall out and tap into some east coast energy. Could be the first widespread snowfall for Southern ON.

Too early for amounts but 5-15cm is likely based on some of the runs I've seen.

18z GFS Today:

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_07_at_5.49.55_PM.jpg ( 467.57K ) Number of downloads: 15


This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 9 2017, 05:58 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Dec 7 2017, 05:58 PM
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Beat me to the punch Travis!

Yeah, this baby is looking good, at least based on the GFS rolleyes.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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MrMusic
post Dec 7 2017, 06:02 PM
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CMON ENE WIND!! Lol
Let's see this materialize! Would be great.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!




Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Lake effect
post Dec 7 2017, 06:08 PM
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Sod's law that's the day I fly back from Atlanta. Lot''s of delays if this happens.
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 7 2017, 06:26 PM
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Important to keep in mind the ECM isnít nearly as impressive with this disturbance as the GFS is. Will need more model support before we know how things will turn out. Itís basically all about if the clipper can pull enough punch from the energy on the coast. If they donít interact the clipper shouldnít have a ton of moisture associated with it. If they can then you get a situation like what the GFS shows.
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kush61
post Dec 7 2017, 08:22 PM
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Merry Christmas to all you "snow" and "weather" infatuants !
Any idea's which direction the wind will be blowing as Saturdays Clipper sails through?
I'm wondering if there will be any enhancement off the Western end of Lake Ontario.

Thank-you
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puttin
post Dec 7 2017, 08:49 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Dec 7 2017, 05:57 PM) *
This thread is for the clipper that runs are showing. I think it has potential to stall out and tap into some east coast energy. Could be the first widespread snowfall for Southern ON.

Too early for amounts but 5-15cm is likely based on some of the runs I've seen.

18z GFS Today:

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_07_at_5.49.55_PM.jpg ( 467.57K ) Number of downloads: 15

I will take it, nice to dream , thanks Travis
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 7 2017, 09:17 PM
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QUOTE(kush61 @ Dec 7 2017, 08:22 PM) *
Merry Christmas to all you "snow" and "weather" infatuants !
Any idea's which direction the wind will be blowing as Saturdays Clipper sails through?
I'm wondering if there will be any enhancement off the Western end of Lake Ontario.

Thank-you


Looks like they could be coming out of the NE but shear might be a problem for getting lake enhancement.
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Lake effect
post Dec 8 2017, 06:31 AM
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The GFS is sticking to its guns. The Euro is a more southerly track with a quick coastal transfer, and the CMC is further north. Not going to be popular, but I will praying the the GFS is wrong as I want to get home!
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snowgeek93
post Dec 8 2017, 07:46 AM
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Yup, other models not as generous as the GFS unfortunately. Shame as it would be nice to lay down some snow during this cold snap.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 8 2017, 09:35 AM
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GFS continues to be very impressive with totals for the lower lakes. Itís had this now for several runs so we should start to take it more seriously. CMC is showing the system more as well just a tad more NW and a bit weaker. Will be interesting to see what the models look like today.
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kush61
post Dec 8 2017, 10:05 AM
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Abrams GFS ensemble focus's on the "Low" racing up the East Coast as the Clipper fizzles away.
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puttin
post Dec 8 2017, 11:03 AM
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QUOTE(kush61 @ Dec 8 2017, 10:05 AM) *
Abrams GFS ensemble focus's on the "Low" racing up the East Coast as the Clipper fizzles away.


And according to a Fox News clip in Texas, it was snowing there like a son of a gun... Imagine, Texas, freakin Texas!! It just isn't fair....I want SNOW!
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Khaled
post Dec 8 2017, 11:05 AM
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Although the GFS 12z is still showing the clipper system passing by the region, however, the intensity is now at half what it was on in the 06z run, as it shifts further south! Hopefully it is not another case of derailing and weakening clipper!
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MrMusic
post Dec 8 2017, 11:11 AM
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new GFS basically with a similar track. The low crosses the centre of Lake Erie keeping us on the cold side.
Snow amounts are less. About 8-10cm for the Golden Horseshoe with 15 well north of TO.

But regardless of amounts, the track is the thing to be monitoring at this stage. It's a clipper, so we can't get our hopes up for some monster blizzard. But even a few inches would be awesome this early.

GFS ensembles and CMC ensembles are decently close with a track across Lake Erie or Southern Ontario.
The CMC OP is the really the only model at this point with a low crossing the Bruce Peninsula.
New NAM also moves W-E across Lake Erie.

If a Lake Erie/Northern Ohio track were to verify, it would at least be frozen precipitation up here.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!




Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Dec 8 2017, 11:14 AM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Dec 8 2017, 12:03 PM) *
And according to a Fox News clip in Texas, it was snowing there like a son of a gun... Imagine, Texas, freakin Texas!! It just isn't fair....I want SNOW!

Totally agree. We're stuck in this lame dry pattern and if we keep missing out on clippers it will all be a waste. Ideally we would have had a snowstorm to usher in this pattern change so we could at least enjoy some snow cover.

You just know that as soon as it starts getting active again storms will cut too far west... mad.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowgeek93
post Dec 8 2017, 11:15 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Dec 8 2017, 12:11 PM) *
new GFS basically with a similar track. The low crosses the centre of Lake Erie keeping us on the cold side.
Snow amounts are less. About 8-10cm for the Golden Horseshoe with 15 well north of TO.

But regardless of amounts, the track is the thing to be monitoring at this stage. It's a clipper, so we can't get our hopes up for some monster blizzard. But even a few inches would be awesome this early.

GFS ensembles and CMC ensembles are decently close with a track across Lake Erie or Southern Ontario.
The CMC OP is the really the only model at this point with a low crossing the Bruce Peninsula.
New NAM also moves W-E across Lake Erie.

If a Lake Erie/Northern Ohio track were to verify, it would at least be frozen precipitation up here.

8-10cm would be golden around here, too bad the GFS is the only model which supports a decent amount of snow here.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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puttin
post Dec 8 2017, 11:48 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Dec 8 2017, 11:15 AM) *
8-10cm would be golden around here, too bad the GFS is the only model which supports a decent amount of snow here.


JJ Snowlover just posted a blog that says this has great potential, as Travis stated...

"Most models have a clipper coming in Monday night into Tuesday that rather than speeding through Ontario, it slows down as the storm strengthens and transfers to a stronger coastal storm"

Attached File(s)
Attached File  Clipper_Tuesday_Dec_12l.jpg ( 85.04K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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travis3000
post Dec 8 2017, 11:55 AM
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Here's the updated 12z GFS that just came in. Less intense storm but still delivers 7-15cm across the GTA, Kitchener, Barrie corridor. The purples do continue east but I used 24 hour snowfall so we don't include other snowfall from LES, etc.

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_08_at_11.52.49_AM.jpg ( 1.47MB ) Number of downloads: 10


This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 8 2017, 12:00 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Khaled
post Dec 8 2017, 12:53 PM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Dec 8 2017, 11:48 AM) *
JJ Snowlover just posted a blog that says this has great potential, as Travis stated...

"Most models have a clipper coming in Monday night into Tuesday that rather than speeding through Ontario, it slows down as the storm strengthens and transfers to a stronger coastal storm"


And he added:

"The thing to keep in mind with the coastal transfer systems:

1- Sometimes the strengthening does not occur over our region and the storm continues on its quick path to the coast,
2- the energy transfer to the coast can happen very quickly and the storm essentially dies out over Ontario (this commonly happens over E.Ontario and SW. Quebec and we loose a great deal of moisture)
Also the system could slip south of Ontario, as the Euro model suggests, which would also limit totals"

12z EC update will be critical! (less than an hour away!)
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