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16 Apr 2014
It really looks like a huge pattern change is here, one that will likely bring an end to the "Tornado drought of 2014".

For the last few runs it looks like a low is moving in off the coast of California on the 22-23, dragging cold upper temps in behind it. The first day of impact by the time it all moves is too early to tell but it seems likely that it will reach the plains by the 24th. The plains will be well warmed up by then with surface at 80s and dewpoint at at least high 60s.

Very interested to see how this one develops!
4 Apr 2012
Beginning Friday April 13, a trough actually appears to make it to the central plains. GFS has been vague about the exact trajectory of the front but it looks to me like this will be a major event if it verifies. It'll be interesting, speculating on how this evolves and changes over the next week.
13 Mar 2012
Strong trough moves through beginning on the 19th. It appears early on as though this may be a major outbreak if pre-frontal shear can remain strong enough.

Two of the long term models tend to disagree on the exact trajectory of the front or its speed but both seem to agree in intensity and the level of moisture return over most of the eastern United States.
21 Jul 2011
The SPC's synopsis, for those who haven't seen it.

NAM Hodographs for central SD at 33 hours into the 18z:

CODE
Image Expired


It was also tweeted by TVN's Timmer that he is now headed towards the Dakotas, where the 0-1km helecity values and mixed layer CAPE looks excellent.

I have included the 24th in the topic because model runs have been fairly consistent about the system impacting MN and WI as well as a small part of Iowa.
5 Jun 2011
Well, since it's obvious something is going to happen on both of these days I thought I might as well start the thread up.


Some amazing looking hodographs in extreme southeastern Montana on June the 7th. The main problem appears to be a very strong cap with the mid-level temperatures approaching 15c within the warm front! Any storm that does develop, of course, would be very well organized with supportive 50kts above.

As the system moves east, another similar situation will unfold, this time in northern SD.

Looking forward to tomorrow night's model run (will update title to include 8th in MN as it becomes more predictable).
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