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snowlover2
Posted on: Today, 01:03 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Chipley FL for 7/22/18.
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2332227 · Replies: · Views: 19,653

snowlover2
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


July 20 Single Day Standings

snowlover2, Flaherty KY - 18pts
melissa from illinois, Nashville TN - 0pts
ColoradoChinook, Dover TN - 0pts
andyhb, Clarsville TN - 0pts
WeatherDudeNYC, Nashville TN - 0pts

2018 Overall Round 2 Standings Through July 20

1. snowlover2 - 55pts
2. WeatherDudeNYC - 40pts
3. idecline - 36pts
T4. joseph507123 - 31pts
T4. melissa from illinois - 31pts
6. ColoradoChinook - 17pts
7. andyhb - 3pts
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2332209 · Replies: · Views: 19,653

snowlover2
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:15 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


QUOTE(ColoradoChinook @ Jul 21 2018, 06:07 PM) *
Snowlover2,
I believe this tornado report from 7/18 was within 19-20 miles of Kennebec, SD, my pick for that day. Can you check this:

0035 6 NNE HAMILL TRIPP SD 4367 9964 BRIEF TOUCHDOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 257TH STREET AND 325TH AVENUE ... TIPPING OVER AND DAMAGING AN IRRIGATION PIVOT BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGHEST WINDS OF THE TORNADO (UNR)

Added 5 points to your total on the last score post.
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2332206 · Replies: · Views: 19,653

snowlover2
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:01 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Sidney MT for 7/21/18.
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2332139 · Replies: · Views: 19,653

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 05:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Looks pretty active in E IN.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332106 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 04:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Eric Elwell on channel 7 just showed their doppler radar suggesting possible rotation on cell just west of Richmond IN.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332102 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 02:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


QUOTE(idecline @ Jul 20 2018, 03:35 PM) *
Rome, GA on 07/21/2018

Aberdeen, SD on 07/21/2018

Rothschild, WI on 07/22/2018

You got two cities for the same day. laugh.gif
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2332088 · Replies: · Views: 19,653

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 02:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Storms popped just east of Indianapolis. Appears to be the next batch to keep an eye on.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332083 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 02:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Tornado warning SW of Ft. Wayne IN.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332079 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 01:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Pretty good storm for non severe.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332062 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 01:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Got some pretty good thunder and lightning now.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332058 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 01:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Looks like some cells are starting to pop south of the line in N IN.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332056 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 12:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Hail probs are 80% on both.

Attached Image
QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Indiana
Central Kentucky
Southwest Ohio

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to
2.5 inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of strong/severe thunderstorms are
expected to affect the watch area this afternoon and evening, posing
a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Cincinnati
OH to 30 miles southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28030.

...Hart
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332042 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 12:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


ILN near term AFD updated about 2 hours ago and sounds like they don't think the cloud cover wll be much of an issue.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1147 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move north into the region today, as a area of low
pressure develops and moves into the southern Great Lakes. This low
will remain in place through the next several days, bringing chances
of showers and thunderstorms. An upper-level trough will remain in
place going into next week, with temperatures remaining slightly
below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Gearing up for the potential for severe storms in multiple
rounds this afternoon and evening. Persistent storms over KILN
during morning balloon launch time prevented a 12z sounding, but
expect additional sounding to be launched as close to 17z as
possible, avoiding any existing storms.

Complicated forecast through the afternoon, with multiple rounds
of storms. For the most part storms currently pushing through
the area will be benign as they are mainly elevated in nature,
but a stronger storm with small hail and wind gusts to 40mph and
small hail can`t be ruled out.

After a late morning/early afternoon lull, increasing
instability with MU CAPE approaching 2500 to even 400 j/Kg in
especially the SW forecast area combined with 0-6km bulk shear
of 30+ kts. An even more impressive 0-3km shear increase to
45 to 50kt between 20-00z which raises a concern for severe
storms as well as low level rotation, especially where discreet
storms have the greatest potential in forming in the SW. A fair
amount of uncertainty as far as what this mornings storms may
do to dampen instability this afternoon. But with the stacked
low, lifting warm front and low level shear coinciding during
favorable diurnal instability, current thinking is that
especially the low level shear and steepening lapse rates
pushing into the region should be enough to overcome of this.

Have tried to update the timing of thunderstorms in the existing
forecast, enhancing the threat for strong storms in the western
forecast area just slightly earlier than previous forecast.

The overall nature of storm movement and recent dry conditions
do not lend to a highly favorable flash flood scenario, but will
be watching areas where thunderstorm lines become E-W oriented,
as well as slower moving discreet or supercell storms track.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332041 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 12:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Tornado watch until 9pm for Dayton and south per weather radio.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332039 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 12:28 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


July 19 Single Day Standings

idecline, Keokuk IA - 11pts
snowlover2, Ottumwa IA - 8pts
melissa from illinois, Quincy IL - 6pts
WeatherDudeNYC, Mt. Pleasant IA - 3pts
ColoradoChinook, Waterloo IA - 0pts
joseph507123, Burlington IA - 0pts


2018 Overall Round 2 Standings Through July 19

1. WeatherDudeNYC - 40pts
2. snowlover2 - 37pts
3. idecline - 36pts
T4. joseph507123 - 31pts
T4. melissa from illinois - 31pts
6. ColoradoChinook - 17pts
7. andyhb - 3pts
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2332034 · Replies: · Views: 19,653

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 12:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Watch likely.
Attached Image
QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...Southeast/Southern IN...Central KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 201719Z - 201815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage anticipated. All severe
hazards are possible and a watch will likely be needed across
portions of the region.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed across southeast IN
(about 40 mi south-southeast of IND) over the past hour. This
cluster appears to be within the diffuse warm frontal zone extending
across the region. Strong instability is present in the vicinity of
the storms, extending southwestward into western KY. However, given
the downstream cloudiness and ongoing precipitation, the instability
drops off quickly with MLCAPE below 500 J/kg by central OH. Ongoing
storms across OH suggest this warm front will remain relatively in
place for at least the next several hours. This will limit the
northeastern extent of the threat with storms likely weakening once
the move into central OH. Even so, airmass immediately surrounding
the cluster is supportive of strong updrafts and at least modest
storm organization. Primary severe threat with this activity is
large hail although some enhancement of the low-level vertical
vorticity is possible within this frontal zone, contributing to a
non-zero tornado risk.

Farther south/southwest (across southern IN and central KY), airmass
head continues to destabilize, evidenced but agitated cloud streaks
in the visible satellite imagery. Recent mesoanalysis also suggests
convective inhibition has eroded. In this area, surface-based storm
development may begin within the next hour or so as large-scale
forcing for ascent increases and surface confluence persists. All
severe hazards are possible here, including the potential for
tornadoes, particularly near the warm front extending across the
region. A watch will likely be needed to cover the anticipated
severe threat.

..Mosier/Hart.. 07/20/2018
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332031 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 11:32 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Not much change on the new day 1 except for the enhanced being trimmed a bit in NW IN. Actually enhanced area expanded a bit east in Ohio too.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332022 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 11:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 20 2018, 12:20 PM) *
Nice storm. Unfortunately looks like a bunch of clouds to our west.

Was just watching weather on local news and they showed lots of clear skies in the west half of IN.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332019 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 11:15 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Getting very dark here with some good thunder.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332017 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 10:39 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Got a little sun poking through right now.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332012 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 10:28 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 20 2018, 09:56 AM) *
Can you look out the window and see the red line? laugh.gif

Pretty much. laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332010 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 08:34 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 20 2018, 09:12 AM) *
Moderate creeping towards OH

[attachment=356997:day1otlk_1300__7_.gif]

That moderate is literally on my doorstep.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331996 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 03:17 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Haven’t seen a write up from ILN like this in a long time.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
350 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move north into the region today, as a area of low
pressure develops and moves into the southern Great Lakes. This low
will remain in place through the next several days, bringing chances
of showers and thunderstorms. An upper-level trough will remain in
place going into next week, with temperatures remaining slightly
below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A complicated and potentially hazardous scenario is setting up
for today, in a very un-July-like weather pattern for the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley.

An area of surface low pressure is currently analyzed to be in
northeastern Iowa. Aloft, the clear swirl of mid-level low
pressure is evident in the same region, though GOES-E water
vapor imagery suggests there may be some embedded mesoscale
vorticity maxima within the envelope of the larger low pressure
system. This is actually kind of an important factor for the
forecast today, which will be discussed a little later. Over the
middle Ohio Valley and the ILN CWA, conditions are still rather
stable, though this is beginning to change as theta-e advection
is already taking place at and above 850mb. With 925mb theta-e
advection just upstream, moisture convergence just ahead of this
elevated warm front is helping to lead to the expected first
round of convective development -- currently over southern
Indiana. There is solid model agreement that suggests this
activity will continue to grow over the next few hours, and
cross the ILN CWA between 10Z-16Z. As it does so, it is likely
to outrun the surface warm front, which at this early hour is
still somewhat under-developed and hard to pick out on
observations. Nonetheless, building elevated instability will
support a marginal hail threat with this activity. Model
soundings also suggest that the boundary layer will be stunted
by a 900mb inversion, but this inversion will be weakening with
time, perhaps allowing some gusty winds to also occur. Overall,
though, the risk for severe weather with this first round of
storms appears to be fairly low -- perhaps increasing ever so
slightly as the storms exit the ILN CWA to the east.

A lull is expected after the morning activity, due to two
factors. For one, this is just typical meteorology -- that
conditions should at least briefly stabilize behind a round of
convection. For two, the multi-spoked nature of the mid-level
low will mean that additional forcing will be coming in a little
bit later in the day -- likely working its way toward the
forecast area by early to mid afternoon. Before that occurs, the
surface warm front (moving just behind the morning convection)
will move through the region. This front will be oriented in a
NNW-to-SSE fashion, and the true warm sector will be somewhat of
a narrow wedge, extending from the lower Tennessee Valley
through Indiana, western Ohio, and even into southern Michigan.
Boundary layer flow will be mainly southerly, allowing for
theta-e advection to take place. However, the flow aloft will be
much more westerly, and these westerly winds will be advecting a
much different type of air -- drier and cooler. Thus, there is
an expectation for a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates to set
up to the south of the low center, focused a little southwest of
the ILN CWA, but certainly getting into the area to an extent.
Where this combines with the building warmth and moisture near
the surface, instability will become quite notable -- with
surface-based CAPE values of as much as 2500-3000 J/kg in the
southwestern ILN CWA, and even as high as 4000-5000 J/kg
further to the southwest in central and western Kentucky.

Before going any further, it should be noted that there are some
forecast uncertainties related to exact convective mode and
timing, particularly within the suite of convective-allowing
models, which have not been terribly consistent with each other
(or with the standard NAM/GFS output). In particular, some of
the WRF runs are suggesting enough additional early-day
convection to blow out the instability for the afternoon, a
scenario unsupported by the HRRR/NAM/GFS.

Assuming the instability develops into the western ILN CWA as
expected, a scenario with a few thousand J/kg of CAPE is not
altogether unsurprising for July. What makes this setup unusual
is the presence of the stacked low, and its impact on the wind
fields. Aloft, there is some pretty solid diffluence to the
southeast of the low center, which will be moving into the ILN
CWA during favorable diurnal timing in the afternoon. As
mentioned earlier, there will also be periods of favorable lift
from the very small-scale vorticity maxima rotating around the
main upper low. Finally, at the surface, the presence of the
warm front (eventually sort of occluding into the trailing cold
front) may also act as a focus for development. What should
result is one or more curved bands of convective development
(initially discrete and possibly supercellular) that develop
during the mid afternoon through evening.

Winds in the warm sector will be solidly southerly (and with
BUFKIT soundings indicating some clear-air gust potential to
around 20 knots). These winds turn to the southwest at 850mb and
to the west above 700mb. Overall values for deep-layer shear
are perhaps marginal in the ILN CWA (better further to the
southwest) but the magnitude of both the directional and speed
shear in the lowest 2km is flat-out impressive for July (and not
even bad for other parts of the year).

All together, this second round of storms will certainly be
capable of severe weather, and all threats are possible. There
is enough deep instability to support a risk of large hail,
though the steeper lapse rates and better deep-layer shear support
this threat being little greater to the southwest of the ILN
CWA (where the SPC moderate risk for hail is in effect). Heavy
rainfall will be a concern in some of the expected deep
convective cores, though this threat may be localized where some
training or back-building occurs. The threat for damaging wind
threat will certainly exist, especially with some dry air in the
mid-levels and the potential for the development of clusters
that forward-propagate south or southeast into the instability.
This is one thing that has been observed in the real world several
times in the past 12 hours or so, but that current HRRR runs
have not really captured -- that storm clusters growing upscale
into the instability is certainly something that could occur.
The wind profiles are a little bit messy enough aloft to lead to
some questions about how long cells that develop in the ILN CWA
can stay purely discrete, but any congealing clusters will
perhaps enhance the threat for winds as well.

Last but certainly not least to mention is the tornado threat,
which must be discussed with low-level winds like these in a
favorable thermodynamic environment. It is likely that there
will be areas of even further backed wind flow (SSE) in the
vicinity of the warm front, perhaps extending all the way north
into northwestern Ohio and northeastern Indiana. Forecast
hodographs through this area show well-curved shapes, with
surface winds that are around 10-15 knots sustained -- not just
a negligible few knots like a typical summer scenario. The
amount of instability being forecast, and some of the other
factors like the mid-level lapse rates, are not as important to
tornado forecasting as what is going on with the winds near the
surface. For that reason, it is believed that the tornado
threat is probably just as great in the northwestern ILN CWA as
it is in the southwestern ILN CWA. If there is any delineation
to be made across the forecast area for any of the severe
threats, it is that both shear and instability are weaker with
eastward extent, leading to more of a marginal severe threat
near and east of US-23.

Max temperatures should be able to get into the lower 80s,
provided there is enough of a break between the two rounds of
storms. With convective complications, this is a medium-
confidence temperature forecast at best.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331973 · Replies: · Views: 3,604

snowlover2
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 12:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,716
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Flaherty KY for 7/20/18.
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2331965 · Replies: · Views: 19,653

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