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> California Weather 'El-Lipsis' ..., "Discuss amongst yourselves" Forecasts, guests, and fun
idecline
post Jun 19 2017, 08:33 PM
Post #181




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...the heatwave continues inland...coastal temps to moderate some...and inland (perhaps) by Thursday...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 710.78K ) Number of downloads: 0


...here's to hoping that the convective energy to our west breaks down a bit of the ridge to at least cool us down a bit...
unsure.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jun 20 2017, 08:44 PM
Post #182




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...could it be?...an end to the heat?...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 670.11K ) Number of downloads: 0


...a slight little 'buckle' has formed in the ridge...will that effect our weather?...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 264.86K ) Number of downloads: 0


...well...maybe we cool a bit by the weekend...after a little more heat for Thursday into Friday...
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 257.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and what will the next week bring?...
Attached File  9lhwbg_conus.gif ( 30.68K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif ...a (our) big High pressure over the center of the country...leaving the West with coastal fog or even...Thunderstorms?...

...'El-Lipsis' weather is confabulated by the entire process...(due to the heat)... wink.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Jun 20 2017, 08:45 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jun 21 2017, 08:49 PM
Post #183




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...ummm...the reddish color is still winning out over the green/yellow colors...what a bunch of HOT AIR!
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 662.17K ) Number of downloads: 0

ohmy.gif
...at least the Bay Area is not in the 120's like many areas in the Desert SouthWest...yikes!!!

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 262.6K ) Number of downloads: 0


...does the trof (trough) along the California Coast mean fog, rain, hot or possible thunderstorms...? unsure.gif

...idecline to state...('El-Lipsis' weather "policy")... laugh.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jul 6 2017, 06:34 PM
Post #184




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The heat wave finally ended...then we had the long 4th of July weekend...a little cooler with tolerable highs...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 652.57K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif ...again we have a stubborn ridge...with an unorthodox orientation...with a strong area of low pressure in the Gulf Of Alaska...can this spinning area make any headway in softening our ridge...or will the heat gradually build as the deserts of California and Arizona continue to bake...will the 'monsoon' head into California more often this summer...?

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 250.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


...seems like we can get some relief along the coast...and hotter towards the interior valleys...the 'usual'...

OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 244.33K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the 96hr forecast seems to be in 'disarray' as the strength of the high pressure comes into question...will the ridge be split up?...given the mostly offshore component of this years ridge, that is possible, this would send cooler air far inland...OPC seems to settle for a 'stand-off' where a heat low pressure trough sets up along the California coast...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jul 10 2017, 08:13 PM
Post #185




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Heat wave inland is beginning to lessen...was working in P-Town the last 3 weeks...90's and 100's...

Hurricane Eugene is moving up the coast of Baja California...into cooler waters...so some degeneration to be expected...the steering winds will guide it up towards San Diego and the Southern California offshore area...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 666.76K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif ...indubitably this will throw a wrench in the predictive value of upcoming forecasts...tropical moisture will effect the Southern California coast and into the deserts as Eugene 'unwinds'...Bay Area???

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 265K ) Number of downloads: 0


Eugene is still on the map as either a tropical storm(or post TC)...get ready...
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 784.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


...'cause here he comes...maybe only with a wave 'event'...causing large breakers and rip tides...or...?


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jul 17 2017, 07:59 PM
Post #186




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...will be in Del Mar, California for the next 7 weeks...so 'El-Lipsis' weather has gone 'SO CAL'...get ready...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 668.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


...it was well over 100 at Sacramento (worked there Fri., Sat., and Sun.)...now on to the mid 70's to low 80's!
cool.gif

OPC 48hr: (Opening Day at Del Mar Racetrack... biggrin.gif )

Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 248.4K ) Number of downloads: 0


...idee might see you there... dry.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 1 2017, 04:01 PM
Post #187




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Hey everyone...I'm still down in Del Mar, CA...been working so much that I've had no time for fun...now...

My first 'broadcast' from Del Mar, CA...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 700.38K ) Number of downloads: 0


Here is the current water vapor loop of NE Pacific basin...tropical regime has taken over for now...
The SF Bay Area is going to be warm to hot...with tropical air making the end of the week even more
uncomfortable away from the ocean where the fog bank should keep the heat at bay... dry.gif

The weather down here in SoCal has been wonderful...warm days and overcast nights and mornings...today
the monsoonal moisture is pushing clouds up into the LA basin for warm muggy conditions...some rain likely...

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 253.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


moisture laden tropical air looks to hang around the ocean waters for the next few days...a re-curving TS in the
Eastern Pacific should make it's way across the Pacific in a week to ten days...we shall see...'El-Lipsis' weather over
and out...'Where the Turf meets the Surf at Del Mar'..."Bing" wink.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 8 2017, 03:30 PM
Post #188




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...the song remains the same...warm to hot conditions inland for both Nor-Cal and So-Cal...no relief in sight...
...the coast is the only place with some respite from the heat...where surging marine layer clouds keep the
temperatures more moderate with night and morning overcast and fog...a 'Rex' block is in control for now...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 670.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


...very stagnant all along the West Coast...with a more typically aligned high pressure offshore (N-S orientation)
an anomalous low pressure system is spinning up over the Aleutians...keeping the pattern in check...

96hr OPC Pacific shows the "joy" and "excitement" that California weather watchers see for much of summer dry.gif
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 253.6K ) Number of downloads: 0


...perhaps the monsoonal moisture will make inroads back into the State by early next week... wink.gif

...idee signing off from the lovely beachside community of Del Mar...



--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 15 2017, 12:40 AM
Post #189




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Hello...from where the smurfs meet the murphs... unsure.gif
Attached File  isawvcnepac__1_.gif ( 655.16K ) Number of downloads: 0


...whattheheck... blink.gif

...and re-curving tropical cyclones...

OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 262.57K ) Number of downloads: 0


...El-Lipsis weather is first in bringing you 'omission' of facts vs. visual confirmations...what is with the NPAC?

...could a 'pattern' for another 'unusual' winter already be setting up a RRWT scenario this early? Stay Tuned...



--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 31 2017, 02:15 AM
Post #190




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Last week of Del Mar...and the weather has gone wacky all over...Del Mar's motto is "cool as ever"...
and compared to what the rest of California is experiencing (except the immediate coastline) is just crazy...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 635.9K ) Number of downloads: 0


NWS has issued a heat advisory for the Bay Area through Monday...100's to maybe record 110's inland!

Also Harvey is finally on the move up through lower Ohio/Tennessee Valley(s) before dissipating later this week.

Irma is screaming across the Atlantic...perhaps a very powerful hurricnae by early next week...

Lidia is scouring the Baja California coast looking to send energy into the desert Southwest...and...
OPC Pacific 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 284.76K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and now recurving Tropical cyclone Sanvu in the Western Pacific...chasing a potential 965mb low near the Aleutians...

unsure.gif huh.gif ohmy.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Aug 31 2017, 02:17 AM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 31 2017, 03:14 AM
Post #191




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...and not to have a "West Coast Bias"...we focus now on OPC Atlantic forecast...made by "people"...
what?
OPC Atlantic forecast 96hr:

Attached File  A_96hrsfc.gif ( 278.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


...make what you want of this...Irma the hurricane...headed at the Leeward islands on Sunday morning...9/3...

...of course this info has been 'provided' by people... dry.gif ...maybe...

This post has been edited by idecline: Aug 31 2017, 03:17 AM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 18 2017, 08:40 PM
Post #192




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...what?...a front and associated deep trough bearing down on the West Coast...on September 18th...?
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 737.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


yowzah...I guess that we may have a little shot of rain in the north...and a bunch of cool air...Sierra snow???

Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 270.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


...it looks to have plenty of upper air support as the low sails down the coast...bringing cold air and instability

blink.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Sep 25 2017, 08:34 PM
Post #193




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...been a week of lovely mild weather...much cooler nights with the advent of Fall weather ...but stellar days..
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 687.99K ) Number of downloads: 0


...ridge digs in for a few more days...yet...lurking out in the Pacific...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 260.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


...a front from the north(propelled by a northerly component) meets a mid-latitude front...and behind that. blink.gif

...on the Long Term Winter weather thread 'El-Lipsis' weather made a 'brash' statement about perhaps another wet winter for the West...

...um...aren't those low(s) a bit more southerly than they should be(climatologically speaking) dry.gif

...and don't the high pressure system seem to be depressed( sad.gif ) to the south again so far this Fall...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Oct 4 2017, 08:03 PM
Post #194




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...continued dry, mild to warm weather this week...with cooler Autumnal nights...anything happening...? unsure.gif
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 663.91K ) Number of downloads: 0


...Water Vapor imagery shows a stubborn high pressure off Oregon coast extending into the Upper Great Basin
...the large main center of Eastern Pacific high pressure is orientated far to the west...allowing NW winds with dry, somewhat cooler air to flow into the Bay Area...as this feature nudges east a warmer trend will continue

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 267.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this shows a vigorous front to the far north entering the Aleutian Islands...???spilling over the top??? '16 redux? lurking in the shadows for Fall and Winter...?

unsure.gif blink.gif ohmy.gif


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Oct 13 2017, 07:46 PM
Post #195




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Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 666.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


the center of 'dry' air is still right over the Northern California fire zone...high winds again a possibility...

hopefully an onshore push begins Monday ...as the high pressure wanes in front of an approaching cold front and associated trough...this could bring rain to the Bay Area late next week...

This post has been edited by idecline: Oct 13 2017, 07:50 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Oct 16 2017, 08:43 PM
Post #196




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...Pacific is starting to push the high pressure...foggy weather and ocean air will finally ease fire issues...
...even better is a chance for rain into Thursday and Friday...especially for the North Bay Area... smile.gif
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 785.16K ) Number of downloads: 0


...front is now starting to make headway towards California...amplitude in the jet makes for a possibility of precipitation...OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 285.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 269.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


...long term there is a typhoon in the Western Pacific...if it is a re-curving storm this may be a TR scenario...

wishing all the best to friends and co-workers in Santa Rosa...Solano, Sonoma, and Napa counties will survive


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Oct 20 2017, 07:34 PM
Post #197




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...quite a bit of wind and rain overnight from the tail of a front...a Pacific storm system got through the HP...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 756.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


...now we will have NW winds and cooler air behind the front...with a strong jet stream still entering the Pacific NorthWest...a ridge may build along the California coast early next week allowing temperatures to rise...and a potential 'offshore' event (not uncommon for late October)...and raise Bay Area temperatures into the 80's and 90's inland ...

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 289.38K ) Number of downloads: 0


...we will see if the so-called PNA ridge will build as strongas all the 'acronym' watchers believe it will...

idee still believes the strong jet coupled with 'oblong' shaped high pressure systems in the eastern Pacific will allow fronts to dive a bit deeper down the California coast this winter...with a La Nina(or La Nada) pattern allowing rainfall in the Northern part of California to remain fairly 'normal'...Southern California will likely be much drier than last winter...we shall see... wink.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Oct 30 2017, 05:51 PM
Post #198




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...been much cooler...just in time for Hallow'een "trick-or-treater's"...breezy with modifying air...storms?
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 697.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


...water vapor imagery shows the NW push of cooler air coming down from GOA...any moisture involved?
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 283.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


...some were predicting rain into the North Bay area as soon as Thursday... rolleyes.gif

...looks to be light rain possibilities into Friday at best...for now... unsure.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Oct 30 2017, 05:54 PM
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Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 805.86K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Nov 13 2017, 05:04 PM
Post #200




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...the 'rainy' season has arrived in Northern California...yes...we have a potential La Nina...but HP is still WB...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 723.62K ) Number of downloads: 0

...and the 96hr OPC Pacific shows the 'Thanksgiving' storm wink.gif starting to head into the NE pacific basin blink.gif Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 292.1K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the jet has begun to reach down into Northern California...in spite of the so-called building La Nina...idee has a feeling that the anomalous high pressure orientation in the NE pacific basin along with strong jet activity will again allow storms to dive a bit further south this fall/winter into the SF bay area...several 'storms' have already moved through with augmentation of the front as it dove southwards from the GOA...the position of the seasonal low pressure in the GOA is vital to the path of winter storms entering the West Coast of the US...

...it seems that with the PNA pattern and the PDO still continuing to create a more active pattern into California that 'modern' forecasts are predicting...(last year was a prime example of the 'mistake' of the ENSO pattern being 'over-whelming')...La Nina only accentuates the 'normal' winter pattern along the West Coast...El Nino is the more 'aberrational' of the multi-dimensional ENSO pattern extremes...also my observance of the SST's in the tropical Pacific seem to indicate, that similar to last year the weakness and orientation of HP in the NE pacific basin will again allow for southward extension of storm activity...also if no one else has noticed...idee would 'unqualified' analyze the La Nina pattern as being a split flow...i.e. that the Southern Hemisphere portion of the pattern is in 'full-bloom'...but anomalous warm waters off the Baja area again will 'simulate' some El Nino type activity in the sub-tropical jet stream...indicative of the HP pattern that the recent tropical seasons has created...along with PDO potentiality the "La Nina" will not be an overall large mechanism in the forcing for this fall/winter...in fact as we roll into 2018 the weather could be similar to last winter...just a bit colder and northerly based...

QUOTE
As December becomes January, the NAO should become increasingly positive with a contemporaneous decrease in PNA values, yielding an atmospheric circulation more reflective of benign/mild La Nina years. This circulation could very well be the mainstay to varying degrees for much of the remainder of meteorological winter. Snowfall should be above to much above normal across the northern tier into northern New England this month, with precipitation running above average. The variation in the Pacific jet will continue to favor Aleutian ridging with periods of poleward ridging into the Arctic. This will permit arctic blasts to sweep through the Northeast, but the spasmodic pattern will preferentially favor warmth to the southeast of the Great Lakes.


...this is an excerpt from forecast linked by JD...http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1108


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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