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Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:08 PM


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Euro look at the situation for the "pattern change" trough


First trough makes in roads - hard to say for certain but looks like elevated region of the interior could see a strip of white or some sort of frozen precip. If there is any blocking (and there is somewhat of a blocky signal going on) then the East could be in for a rough ride as (meaning - if) the system comes up the coast.
Attached Image


Trough #2 waiting at the crest of the flattening Western Ridge

Attached Image


Yes, Nor' the look of the PNA can, often times, be the only synoptic driver of the outcome - blocking not needed so much (for the east) when we see those large PNA+ #'s.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249617 · Replies: · Views: 26,477

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:45 AM


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Well, this look is certainly interesting.

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249610 · Replies: · Views: 26,477

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 14 2017, 12:46 PM


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QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 14 2017, 10:31 AM) *
Trying to gauge the interest, or lack thereof, in this thread based on how many pages past years had for the long range winter thread at this time. I know it will pick up in the coming weeks, but we are about ten pages shorter than this time last year. Wonder if the past two winters have people a little more disinterested than usual, or people just being shy before winter. smile.gif

By this point, last year (and previous year) I had made at least 3 long posts relative to my thoughts for the winter.

This year I am very reluctant. I'm quite undecided and on the points I'm really thinking about - no one in here would much care for the outcome.

I guess I'll just add that, as for this winter, at least in the MidAtl - I am leaning "bearish".
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249540 · Replies: · Views: 174,181

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 14 2017, 07:08 AM


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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 14 2017, 07:25 AM) *
7amEST temps. Snowing in Idaho & Wyoming. I see Teens and 20s on the map. Teens in October I never experienced let alone Mid October.. I'd like to get below 45° for now. lol

[attachment=331742:Map58.jpg]
A look at the Upper heights and temps at 5000'. Nice dip in the West...AGAIN

Summer morning here in 60s..AGAIN

[attachment=331743:Map59e.jpg]

Perhaps you get your wish, Nor. Starting to nudge closer to "not so unbelievable" range

Attached Image


Euro also hinting at a reversal of fortune (ridge W/ trough E) at end of run

Attached Image



As I see it, the signal for a break in the raging Pac Jet would lend credence to such an outcome. At Hr23+, across the major global models, I believe I spy an attempted split of the Pac Jet flow - allowing the downstream wave to buckle the zonal flow.
Hr252 shown of 6z GFS, for illustration purpose only - actual timing may vary

Attached Image

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249527 · Replies: · Views: 26,477

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 04:10 PM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 12 2017, 04:56 PM) *
So close, yet so far (hr 336). I'll take my 1-2 day breaks meanwhile. :-(

GFS12z for Binghamton: Normal 850mb temps is about 5C there.

You can see why this weekend will be very warm.

You can see why Monday and Tuesday will be awesome! (For me anyway) Temps at 5000' drop to near or below freezing!

Then we warm back up to well above normal for next weekend..

Then GFS is still trolling for end of month..

[attachment=331729:Data.jpg]

Yeah it is (so far). I do note that the GFS and EURO are relatively similar in re the upper air maps at the Hr240 mark - so GFS might not be in "sniffing glue" mode. If it does unfold, I have yet another episode of current weather that mimics that of the second half of 2011.

Those thoughts keep creeping back into my mind as I think about this winter. I've refrained from saying as much, so far - for fear that I would be, figuratively, set upon with stones, for doing so.

I detest the humidity we saw at the peak of the past uber warm spell and can only hope it's not to that extent. Otherwise, the longer I can keep from using my funds to pay the electric and propane bills, the better.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249476 · Replies: · Views: 26,477

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 11:56 AM


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Eastern US probably should love seeing signals such as this - if only it would hold and persist. Well established W Ridge with a slightly positive tilt at crest, Rex block downstream, large trough in East.

A tall order to be sure, but somewhat encouraging to wintery weather lovers.

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249465 · Replies: · Views: 26,477

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 10 2017, 04:46 PM


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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 10 2017, 04:51 PM) *
TorchTober continues. Forgot normal lows have been 40s here since they been in 60s and 70s lately.

Cant wait for that 1-2 day break next week. Lol

[attachment=331698:Screensh...0_165115.png]

I prefer the term coined by Paul Knight of PSU -- Oct-toaster.

Not that it matters. A rose by any other name, and all that.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249383 · Replies: · Views: 26,477

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 02:58 PM


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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 9 2017, 03:56 PM) *
0.93" at IPT .. a bit of an under-performing.. (expected around 1.5" or so..)

Should work to soften the ground and I can fix up the decorations. That's all that mattered to me laugh.gif

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIPT.html

If you put out Dracula props, you can use the stakes. tongue.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249335 · Replies: · Views: 4,296

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 12:14 PM


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I believe that, if added correctly, is near 1.5" at MDT

Attached Image


A tick over 2.0" IMBY

Indiantown Gap, which is a couple ticks due east from UTS Hill, coming in at over 1.75"

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMUI.html
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249320 · Replies: · Views: 4,296

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 08:53 AM


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HIA reporting .9 something, with strong se flow and hvy rain resulting in a one hour obsx of 0.4" just the past hour.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249297 · Replies: · Views: 4,296

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 08:50 AM


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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Oct 9 2017, 09:44 AM) *
Only 0.6" here so far. Didn't get much of anything overnight. Reading airport is 0.20" as of an hour ago.

I might be getting some upslope enhancement, as se flow at 10-18 has been the rule since daybreak.

Even the lighter green radar returns are manifesting as moderate to heavy at times wind blown rain IMBY.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249296 · Replies: · Views: 4,296

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 08:27 AM


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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Oct 9 2017, 09:26 AM) *
Shouldn't be this warm and muggy on a rainy October day. tongue.gif Heaviest batch moved in here a little while ago. Should be down well before lunch time it looks like.

Just passed the 1.5" mark for the time period last evening until now. smile.gif

Much needed is an understatement.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249293 · Replies: · Views: 4,296

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 05:34 AM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 9 2017, 06:20 AM) *
Bring your slicker. tongue.gif

[attachment=331677:CCX_loop.gif]

That's the problem - it's too warm to wear anything over top. I plan to rough it out and get soaked - letting only my boonie hat shield me.

Attached Image


It's a short errand and I'll be able, if I want, to get a hot shower within two hours.

I may be a soft handed government worker, but I still remember how to tough things out - as I used to, so often, in the old days. laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249286 · Replies: · Views: 4,296

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 05:15 AM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 9 2017, 05:02 AM) *
GOES16
[attachment=331675:ezgif_3_b97795c172.gif]

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

Comparing to the HRRR, that convection is quite a ways further southeast than the HRRR would have it.

[attachment=331676:hrrr_ir_neus_3.png]

So far, the entire event has underperformed IMBY. Of course, since I have something outside I must do in 45 minutes, the heaviest batch moves in. sad.gif laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249284 · Replies: · Views: 4,296

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 03:26 PM


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QUOTE(risingriver @ Oct 8 2017, 02:28 PM) *
Hoping Nate's remnants plus the front can deliver some rain east of the Blue Ridge in Virginia. We desperately need it. Rocks in my river were wearing sunscreen yesterday when I was out fishing. rolleyes.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif

If I use that metaphor, do I have to pay royalties? unsure.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249251 · Replies: · Views: 33,407

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 03:24 PM


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Attached Image


Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249250 · Replies: · Views: 4,296

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 06:27 AM


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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 6 2017, 11:34 PM) *
It could indeed be entertaining even into November.
And hey, thanks for the posts.

The time frame is a bit off, but itīs a fun exercise.

The dates work for me. The overall pattern has not changed significantly since you first posted those thoughts - thus, still applicable.
cool.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249222 · Replies: · Views: 5,208

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 04:42 AM


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It has begun

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249219 · Replies: · Views: 4,296

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 01:31 PM


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For the first time in quite a few hours, the ADT Weakening Flag is "On" - Raw T value down to 4.2

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249136 · Replies: · Views: 33,407

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 10:44 AM


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Stephanie A on TWC just mentioned they are pulling out of NOLA and being sent to Birmingham.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249116 · Replies: · Views: 33,407

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 10:39 AM


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Mistrust the HRRR past Hr12, but since it's coming in towards that range, I thought I'd give a peek. Past 2 cycles, it has Nate track moving ever so slightly to the right. This past run, scrapes by the toe of the LA boot.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249115 · Replies: · Views: 33,407

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 10:06 AM


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QUOTE(Molassis @ Oct 7 2017, 10:45 AM) *
I'm not even gunna pretend to be smart here... but if that is steering... is it going to be steered more north? I mean... they say the movement is NNW... but it looks to me (and I have no clue what I'm looking at) it is stuck in a north movement. I'm honestly asking here... so please try to explain what I'm looking at and please keep in mind, I'm weather dumb. LOL. I'm in Pensacola (just east of) and not wanting to be caught off guard.


The update explains it in better words that I would have come up with - but they hit all the key points of my showing the image

The initial motion is toward the north-northwest at a very rapid 24
kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large
cyclonic gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a mid-level
ridge over the western Atlantic. In addition, a mid-latitude trough
in the westerlies is moving eastward through the central United
States. This pattern is expected to cause Nate to turn northward
during the next 12-18 h as it rounds the western end of the ridge,
followed by a turn toward the northeast as it enters the westerlies.
The new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the
previous track, and it lies near the center of the tightly clustered
guidance.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249112 · Replies: · Views: 33,407

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 09:49 AM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 7 2017, 07:46 AM) *
Was going to mention last night that the west side would have to ingest and deal with relatively dry air mixing in from the continental influence.

The hemi wv view suggests that, even the east (s/e) side of the system is not entirely connected to the deeper moisture tap.
[attachment=331621:Capture.JPG]

Intensification, I can buy. RI? - not as much.


Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249110 · Replies: · Views: 33,407

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 09:36 AM


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Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249108 · Replies: · Views: 33,407

Undertakerson
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 07:47 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE
...TC Nate...

TC Nate is lifting north into the southern Gulf basin early this
morning and is forecast to make landfall along the central Gulf
coast late in the day1 period. Low-level shear is expected to
increase markedly after 08/06z from the MS River delta region into
southern AL along the eastern periphery of Nate such that rotation
within stronger convection will become increasingly likely. Given
the fast forward speed of Nate have increased tornado probs for
regions immediately east of expected landfall.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249099 · Replies: · Views: 33,407

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