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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
post Today, 05:50 PM
Post #3121

Rank: F5 Superstorm

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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453

When looking at the apparently coming HLB, don't forget to look at the model verifications.

Look at the 14 day verification. There was only a few times where the observation was below the 14 day forecast... other than that, GEFS has consistently overestimated the -NAO. Last time the 14 day forecast was this low was in December. It actually did go negative, but it was pretty short-lived.

The AO 14-day forecast verification is even worse. NAO was 68%, AO is 15%. The AO has been much more variable than the NAO. It did nail the -AO in November, but other than that, it also mostly overestimated the -AO. The 14-day forecast in February has been abysmal.

So even with that said, history suggests that we are about to see -NAO/-AO... but don't expect a prolonged event. The models have been seeing that through the winter but it hasn't verified.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 05:53 PM

Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Today, 06:11 PM
Post #3122

Rank: F5 Superstorm

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Posts: 17,455
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547

EPS 2m temps for Fulton, they tend to run a little warm IMO..Avg highs this time of year is around 35 so thats slightly below average temps for the 1st week in March...

Attached File  DCF4C266_B58F_4395_9FB2_EAC4275BBF63.jpeg ( 293.53K ) Number of downloads: 3

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Today, 06:12 PM

Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 133.7(as of 2/7)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
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post Today, 09:27 PM
Post #3123

Rank: F5 Superstorm

Group: Member
Posts: 1,536
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Endwell, NY
Member No.: 16,598

QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Feb 17 2018, 03:53 PM) *
Joe Bastardi (Bustardi) says winter is coming back with a vengeance in todays Saturday summary

Mr. Bustardi is a glorified cold weather wishcaster, though he does know about pattern shifts. Of course, he has a vested interest in cold weather--though his vest is not bulletproof. LOL.

There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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