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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 05:50 PM
Post #3121




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When looking at the apparently coming HLB, don't forget to look at the model verifications.

Look at the 14 day verification. There was only a few times where the observation was below the 14 day forecast... other than that, GEFS has consistently overestimated the -NAO. Last time the 14 day forecast was this low was in December. It actually did go negative, but it was pretty short-lived.



The AO 14-day forecast verification is even worse. NAO was 68%, AO is 15%. The AO has been much more variable than the NAO. It did nail the -AO in November, but other than that, it also mostly overestimated the -AO. The 14-day forecast in February has been abysmal.



So even with that said, history suggests that we are about to see -NAO/-AO... but don't expect a prolonged event. The models have been seeing that through the winter but it hasn't verified.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 05:53 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Today, 06:11 PM
Post #3122




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From: Fulton NY
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EPS 2m temps for Fulton, they tend to run a little warm IMO..Avg highs this time of year is around 35 so thats slightly below average temps for the 1st week in March...

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This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Today, 06:12 PM


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Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 133.7(as of 2/7)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
My PWS
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bingobobbo
post Today, 09:27 PM
Post #3123




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From: Endwell, NY
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Feb 17 2018, 03:53 PM) *
Joe Bastardi (Bustardi) says winter is coming back with a vengeance in todays Saturday summary




Mr. Bustardi is a glorified cold weather wishcaster, though he does know about pattern shifts. Of course, he has a vested interest in cold weather--though his vest is not bulletproof. LOL.


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There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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