Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

23 Pages V  « < 7 8 9 10 11 > »   
Closed TopicStart new topic
> December 19-20 Southeast Winter Storm, Thread closed...See OBS thread
feelnopain
post Dec 16 2009, 04:18 PM
Post #161




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 34
Joined: 10-December 08
From: Gunchester KY
Member No.: 16,430





us SE KY SNOW GEESE say we luv it!!


hang in there guys this next 2 weeks going to GIVE US ALL WINTER WEATHER!!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
123
post Dec 16 2009, 04:20 PM
Post #162




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 257
Joined: 12-January 09
From: Greenville,SC
Member No.: 16,888





Still think Weather.Gov and Weather.com are being somewhat conservative, becuase with that strong of a storm, more cold air would be ushered in than what they show...... And with all the evaporational cooling taking place,.... guess we will have to see what the models tonight show... lets hope for colder biggrin.gif


--------------------
Website :

1) http://gwcnewshd.webs.com/

Youtube:

1) http://www.youtube.com/user/sillymiller123

Twitter:

1) http://twitter.com/GwcNewsHD

GwcNewsHD Is Partnered with Weather Advance; heres their website:

1) http://www.weatheradvance.com
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_ATLANTAMAN_*
post Dec 16 2009, 04:24 PM
Post #163







Guests









Hey dont pick on me, just as negative as everyone else... laugh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Hawksfan
post Dec 16 2009, 04:30 PM
Post #164




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,731
Joined: 13-May 08
From: Marietta, GA - 1100 feet
Member No.: 14,833





QUOTE(ATLANTAMAN @ Dec 16 2009, 04:07 PM) *
??? Does it really matter anymore....???
I am sick of rain too...Who hypes these forecasts up, and then at the last minute it goes down the toilet???



Wow, the NAM tends to disagree with you here. What information did you use to come up with the idea that it's going to be a rain event?

FYI - NAM shows a major Snowstorm for the SE, including North Georgia.


--------------------
2010-11 Meteorological Winter Stats 12/1/10-3/1/11:

Total Snow for 2010-2011 - 7.0" - Yearly average 2" = 350% of normal
12/5/10 - first snow flurries
12/12/10-12/13/10 - Light dusting of snow
12/15/10-12/16/10 - Trace of snow - change over to ice
12/25/10-12/26/10 - about 2" of snow
1/9/11-1/10/11 - 4" of snow followed by 1/8"-1/4" of ice
1/11/11 - Trace of snow
1/12/11 - Trace of snow
2/9/11 - 2/10/11 - 1" accumulation
Lowest Temperature recorded - 13 on the morning of 12/14/10
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_ATLANTAMAN_*
post Dec 16 2009, 04:33 PM
Post #165







Guests








QUOTE(Hawksfan @ Dec 16 2009, 04:30 PM) *
Wow, the NAM tends to disagree with you here. What information did you use to come up with the idea that it's going to be a rain event?

FYI - NAM shows a major Snowstorm for the SE, including North Georgia.



Well, just read the latest from our heros at the local NWS..1-2 inches of rain, with the low going way south of us on the ga fl border...does not make sense...also love how they say cool high at the end of the discussion, cannot even say cold anymore--its like we are in summer and we are going for a cool down...

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
421 PM EST Wednesday Dec 16 2009


Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley this afternoon was
influencing the weather...or lack thereof...over much of the
eastern and southeastern states. The high will shift east into the
Middle-Atlantic States by Thursday...continuing to nose into Georgia
through Friday. A middle/upper level shortwave trough over the Rio
Grande Valley today will eject northeastward on Thursday reaching
Georgia on Friday. Rain will overspread north and especially
central Georgia ahead of this system Thursday night...becoming
widespread on Friday as models track the surface low just to our
south along the Georgia/Florida state line. The combination of decent
isentropic ascent over The Wedge front...and synoptic scale ascent
associated with the right entrance region of 120 knots upper jet
streak should lead to widespread moderate to locally heavy rain
early Friday morning into Friday afternoon. A hydrologic outlook
/esfffc/ has been sent out highlighting the heavy rain/flood
potential. The 1 to 2 inches of expected rain typically wouldn't
cause significant problems...but considering saturated soil and
several rivers in flood already in central Georgia...the potential for
additional flooding is elevated. P-type a bit of a challenge in
the far north late Thursday night and Friday night. Expect
predominantly rain during the day...but forecast soundings show
temperatures just above freezing with dewpoints/wet bulb temperatures
below 0 degree c in the north...possibly supporting light sleet or
freezing rain at times in the far north.


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
by Saturday...northwest winds on the back side of the low will
start tapping into a much cooler airmass...bringing thermal
profiles generally below freezing. Residual moisture mainly along
the northwest facing slopes and upslope flow in these areas should
allow for some mountain snow showers both Saturday and Sunday.
Global models generally in agreement with cool high building in
early next week.

This post has been edited by ATLANTAMAN: Dec 16 2009, 04:38 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Hawksfan
post Dec 16 2009, 04:38 PM
Post #166




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,731
Joined: 13-May 08
From: Marietta, GA - 1100 feet
Member No.: 14,833





QUOTE(ATLANTAMAN @ Dec 16 2009, 04:33 PM) *
Well, just read the latest from our heros at the local NWS..1-2 inches of rain, with the low going way south of us on the ga fl border...does not make sense...

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
421 PM EST Wednesday Dec 16 2009
Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley this afternoon was
influencing the weather...or lack thereof...over much of the
eastern and southeastern states. The high will shift east into the
Middle-Atlantic States by Thursday...continuing to nose into Georgia
through Friday. A middle/upper level shortwave trough over the Rio
Grande Valley today will eject northeastward on Thursday reaching
Georgia on Friday. Rain will overspread north and especially
central Georgia ahead of this system Thursday night...becoming
widespread on Friday as models track the surface low just to our
south along the Georgia/Florida state line. The combination of decent
isentropic ascent over The Wedge front...and synoptic scale ascent
associated with the right entrance region of 120 knots upper jet
streak should lead to widespread moderate to locally heavy rain
early Friday morning into Friday afternoon. A hydrologic outlook
/esfffc/ has been sent out highlighting the heavy rain/flood
potential. The 1 to 2 inches of expected rain typically wouldn't
cause significant problems...but considering saturated soil and
several rivers in flood already in central Georgia...the potential for
additional flooding is elevated. P-type a bit of a challenge in
the far north late Thursday night and Friday night. Expect
predominantly rain during the day...but forecast soundings show
temperatures just above freezing with dewpoints/wet bulb temperatures
below 0 degree c in the north...possibly supporting light sleet or
freezing rain at times in the far north.
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
by Saturday...northwest winds on the back side of the low will
start tapping into a much cooler airmass...bringing thermal
profiles generally below freezing. Residual moisture mainly along
the northwest facing slopes and upslope flow in these areas should
allow for some mountain snow showers both Saturday and Sunday.
Global models generally in agreement with cool high building in
early next week.


They are typically very conservative as you know, I was not aware they had released this forecast. I'm encouraged by the 18z NAM and the 18z GFS is coming through now.


--------------------
2010-11 Meteorological Winter Stats 12/1/10-3/1/11:

Total Snow for 2010-2011 - 7.0" - Yearly average 2" = 350% of normal
12/5/10 - first snow flurries
12/12/10-12/13/10 - Light dusting of snow
12/15/10-12/16/10 - Trace of snow - change over to ice
12/25/10-12/26/10 - about 2" of snow
1/9/11-1/10/11 - 4" of snow followed by 1/8"-1/4" of ice
1/11/11 - Trace of snow
1/12/11 - Trace of snow
2/9/11 - 2/10/11 - 1" accumulation
Lowest Temperature recorded - 13 on the morning of 12/14/10
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_ATLANTAMAN_*
post Dec 16 2009, 04:40 PM
Post #167







Guests








QUOTE(Hawksfan @ Dec 16 2009, 04:38 PM) *
They are typically very conservative as you know, I was not aware they had released this forecast. I'm encouraged by the 18z NAM and the 18z GFS is coming through now.


Thanks Hawksfan, decipher it for me when it comes in,,,is the low not in a perfect place for us to have heavy snow, yes, I think so....also they were 10 degrees too high today for the predicted.

This post has been edited by ATLANTAMAN: Dec 16 2009, 04:42 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
123
post Dec 16 2009, 04:49 PM
Post #168




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 257
Joined: 12-January 09
From: Greenville,SC
Member No.: 16,888





18z gfs out,,, looks like its dug cold air further south, interesting smile.gif


--------------------
Website :

1) http://gwcnewshd.webs.com/

Youtube:

1) http://www.youtube.com/user/sillymiller123

Twitter:

1) http://twitter.com/GwcNewsHD

GwcNewsHD Is Partnered with Weather Advance; heres their website:

1) http://www.weatheradvance.com
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_ATLANTAMAN_*
post Dec 16 2009, 04:51 PM
Post #169







Guests








QUOTE(123 @ Dec 16 2009, 04:49 PM) *
18z gfs out,,, looks like its dug cold air further south, interesting smile.gif

Can you show it,,,thanks

This post has been edited by ATLANTAMAN: Dec 16 2009, 04:55 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
123
post Dec 16 2009, 04:55 PM
Post #170




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 257
Joined: 12-January 09
From: Greenville,SC
Member No.: 16,888





Ill try to find a link... Just wait a few minutes and ill show it smile.gif

PS: It doesnt show as much snow,cold,etc, as the NAM MODEL, BUT its a step in the right direction...

This post has been edited by 123: Dec 16 2009, 04:57 PM


--------------------
Website :

1) http://gwcnewshd.webs.com/

Youtube:

1) http://www.youtube.com/user/sillymiller123

Twitter:

1) http://twitter.com/GwcNewsHD

GwcNewsHD Is Partnered with Weather Advance; heres their website:

1) http://www.weatheradvance.com
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Snowlover32
post Dec 16 2009, 04:57 PM
Post #171




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 888
Joined: 27-February 09
From: Shelby, NC 899 ft.
Member No.: 17,707





I hope the GFS is underestimating the amount of cold air.


--------------------
QUOTE(Tarheelflyfishing @ Nov 28 2010, 0711 PM) *
Forecasting a winter storm down to the last detail here in the NC Piedmont is like nailing Jell-O to a tree.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Hawksfan
post Dec 16 2009, 05:00 PM
Post #172




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,731
Joined: 13-May 08
From: Marietta, GA - 1100 feet
Member No.: 14,833





QUOTE(ATLANTAMAN @ Dec 16 2009, 04:40 PM) *
Thanks Hawksfan, decipher it for me when it comes in,,,is the low not in a perfect place for us to have heavy snow, yes, I think so....also they were 10 degrees too high today for the predicted.


18z GFS is too warm to support snow or freezing rain/sleet in North Georgia, the NAM shows much more cold air being pulled down into the system.


--------------------
2010-11 Meteorological Winter Stats 12/1/10-3/1/11:

Total Snow for 2010-2011 - 7.0" - Yearly average 2" = 350% of normal
12/5/10 - first snow flurries
12/12/10-12/13/10 - Light dusting of snow
12/15/10-12/16/10 - Trace of snow - change over to ice
12/25/10-12/26/10 - about 2" of snow
1/9/11-1/10/11 - 4" of snow followed by 1/8"-1/4" of ice
1/11/11 - Trace of snow
1/12/11 - Trace of snow
2/9/11 - 2/10/11 - 1" accumulation
Lowest Temperature recorded - 13 on the morning of 12/14/10
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
dawgnkitten
post Dec 16 2009, 05:03 PM
Post #173




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,216
Joined: 18-January 08
From: Tiger, GA
Member No.: 12,664





Thought the people in GSP area would like to read this.....on another note we have our rain chances as 70% on Frday and Friday night with max rainfall as .45" and that is from Thursday night until Saturday.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE BASED ON THE 18Z NAM. THE LATEST RUN
APPEARS MUCH COLDER WITH INCREASED QPF. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
CONSISTENT TREND WITH THE SHORT RANGE MODELS. MINOR TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS AND QPF INCREASES PUSHES THE NRN NC MTNS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS INTO WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. I WILL ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE HEAVY SNOW AREAS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
WITH A COOL MILLER TYPE A LOW EVOLVING THROUGH THE PERIOD. USING A
BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE NRN GULF TO THE FL PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH OF THE LOW
ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FRI. MODERATE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD RIPPLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z FRI - 0Z SAT WITH
THE PASSAGE DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW
WILL LIKELY DEEPEN BELOW 1000 MB AND TRACK OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST
FRI EVENING AND NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST...LEAVING THE NC MTNS
UNDER MOIST NW FLOW AND H5 TROF.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS WITH FAVOR GIVEN TO THE
ECMWF. AT THE SFC...I BELIEVE THAT THE SREF 2M TEMPS WILL VERIFY THE
BEST DURING THE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. THIS APPROACH YIELDS MAINLY
A COLD RAIN EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND SPREAD TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NRN PIEDMONT FRI AFTERNOON. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND LOW TW WILL REMAIN NOSED SW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND
NC FOOTHILLS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY FAVOR
THE TN BORDER AREAS ON SATURDAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SN EAST OF THE MTNS WILL TAPER OFF
AROUND SUNRISE SAT...YIELDING AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE I-40
CORRDIOR. MTN AREAS COULD SEE A TRACE IN THE VALLEYS AND 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 2500 FT. FZRA WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 0.10
OF AN INCH ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...IT WOULD ONLY
TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO MOVE WITHIN THE WARM NOSE TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER THIS FORECAST. I WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT IN THE
HWO.-- End Changed Discussion --


--------------------

Just having fun in FL...miss it at times, especially the gorgeous sunsets...taken on 7/14/11
Live for today, for yesterday is the past, and tomorrow is a distant dream of hope
Many will come into your life, a few will leave their footprints, and a couple will break your heart.
Love is the source of all things-Good and Evil. @---}---
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
123
post Dec 16 2009, 05:09 PM
Post #174




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 257
Joined: 12-January 09
From: Greenville,SC
Member No.: 16,888





Well 18zgfs still doesnt show the freezing line down to the piedmont,n ga,etc... But its still further south...


--------------------
Website :

1) http://gwcnewshd.webs.com/

Youtube:

1) http://www.youtube.com/user/sillymiller123

Twitter:

1) http://twitter.com/GwcNewsHD

GwcNewsHD Is Partnered with Weather Advance; heres their website:

1) http://www.weatheradvance.com
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
123
post Dec 16 2009, 05:13 PM
Post #175




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 257
Joined: 12-January 09
From: Greenville,SC
Member No.: 16,888





Looks like Winter storm watches will be issued soon.... Wondering where they will issue them. and if it goes down into the sc,ga, area

This post has been edited by 123: Dec 16 2009, 05:13 PM


--------------------
Website :

1) http://gwcnewshd.webs.com/

Youtube:

1) http://www.youtube.com/user/sillymiller123

Twitter:

1) http://twitter.com/GwcNewsHD

GwcNewsHD Is Partnered with Weather Advance; heres their website:

1) http://www.weatheradvance.com
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
weatherguysc
post Dec 16 2009, 05:16 PM
Post #176




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 261
Joined: 5-December 09
From: Gaffney, SC (868ft elv.)
Member No.: 19,978





They just issued for NC mountains and foothills...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/gsp/


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
dawgnkitten
post Dec 16 2009, 05:17 PM
Post #177




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,216
Joined: 18-January 08
From: Tiger, GA
Member No.: 12,664





Found this on the NE/MidAtl thread, thought ya'll would like to see....would this be rain/snow or a mix? And how can you tell?
Attached File(s)
Attached File  JMA.bmp ( 732.33K ) Number of downloads: 149
 


--------------------

Just having fun in FL...miss it at times, especially the gorgeous sunsets...taken on 7/14/11
Live for today, for yesterday is the past, and tomorrow is a distant dream of hope
Many will come into your life, a few will leave their footprints, and a couple will break your heart.
Love is the source of all things-Good and Evil. @---}---
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
123
post Dec 16 2009, 05:20 PM
Post #178




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 257
Joined: 12-January 09
From: Greenville,SC
Member No.: 16,888







http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gf...bTSLPp06060.gif

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gf...bTSLPp06066.gif

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gf...bTSLPp06078.gif

Here they are, the freezing line isnt where we want it, but its further south, which is a step in the right direction...

This post has been edited by 123: Dec 16 2009, 05:23 PM


--------------------
Website :

1) http://gwcnewshd.webs.com/

Youtube:

1) http://www.youtube.com/user/sillymiller123

Twitter:

1) http://twitter.com/GwcNewsHD

GwcNewsHD Is Partnered with Weather Advance; heres their website:

1) http://www.weatheradvance.com
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Snowlover32
post Dec 16 2009, 05:21 PM
Post #179




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 888
Joined: 27-February 09
From: Shelby, NC 899 ft.
Member No.: 17,707





QUOTE(weatherguysc @ Dec 16 2009, 05:16 PM) *
They just issued for NC mountains and foothills...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/gsp/


How to heck do you issue a winter storm watch in the middle of the mountains not including the rest of the mountains? Have they been looking at the models?


--------------------
QUOTE(Tarheelflyfishing @ Nov 28 2010, 0711 PM) *
Forecasting a winter storm down to the last detail here in the NC Piedmont is like nailing Jell-O to a tree.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
weatherguysc
post Dec 16 2009, 05:22 PM
Post #180




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 261
Joined: 5-December 09
From: Gaffney, SC (868ft elv.)
Member No.: 19,978





I was wondering the same thing when I saw that map...doesn't make alot of sense. And they issued this today and not even calling for anything to happen until Friday afternoon. You got me.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

23 Pages V  « < 7 8 9 10 11 > » 
Closed TopicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 14th August 2018 - 10:56 PM