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> July 9-18 Plains/MW/OV/GL Warm Spell/Heat Wave, Post Last Minute Forecast and OBS
jdrenken
post Jul 7 2011, 05:57 AM
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Per the CPC and NAEFS, looks like our heat wave is making a return.

6-10 Day


8-14 Day

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jdrenken
post Jul 7 2011, 09:41 AM
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By the way, this upcoming heat wave matches the LRC as the 'signature storm' went thru on the 2nd as we have a warm up while the signature storm comes and then back to normal and/or below normal temps and then temps 20 degrees above normal roughly 2 weeks after.


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Chicago Storm
post Jul 7 2011, 04:42 PM
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Snow____
post Jul 7 2011, 09:36 PM
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I wouldn't say it's been hot but it has been consistently above average here. Around 90 everyday here. a degree or 2 above 90 or a degree or 2 below 90. I kind of wish it would stay like this. I don't want anything higher lol. I also wish the dew points would drop. 90 with a 61 dew point would feel nice.


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SEMIweather
post Jul 7 2011, 10:39 PM
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The Euro shows a big heat wave during this timeframe.


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SWOhioweather
post Jul 8 2011, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jul 7 2011, 10:36 PM) *
I wouldn't say it's been hot but it has been consistently above average here. Around 90 everyday here. a degree or 2 above 90 or a degree or 2 below 90. I kind of wish it would stay like this. I don't want anything higher lol. I also wish the dew points would drop. 90 with a 61 dew point would feel nice.


Yeah, so far in July everyday has reached 90 IMBY. Looks like this could be a pretty large heatwave for our part with temperatures near 100.


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RobB
post Jul 8 2011, 09:47 AM
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QUOTE(SWOhioweather @ Jul 8 2011, 10:06 AM) *
Yeah, so far in July everyday has reached 90 IMBY. Looks like this could be a pretty large heatwave for our part with temperatures near 100.


CODE
                   TEMPERATURE (F), RAIN  (in), WIND SPEED (mph)

                                      HEAT  COOL        AVG
    MEAN                              DEG   DEG         WIND                 DOM
DAY TEMP  HIGH   TIME   LOW    TIME   DAYS  DAYS  RAIN  SPEED HIGH   TIME    DIR
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  76.3  86.1   4:58p  66.1   6:16a   0.0  11.3  0.00   0.4  10.0   3:41p     W
2  77.6  89.1   5:45p  68.7   5:49a   0.0  12.6  0.08   0.8  13.0   3:45p    SW
3  81.4  90.3   3:41p  71.6   6:46a   0.0  16.4  0.00   1.1  17.0   2:51p     W
4  77.0  85.5   5:26p  70.1  11:56p   0.0  11.9  0.00   0.4  11.0   3:37p    SW
5  76.7  90.1   5:10p  62.4   6:57a   0.2  11.9  0.00   0.3  10.0   4:33p    SW
6  78.1  90.1   3:54p  65.1   6:23a   0.0  13.1  0.00   0.4  11.0   2:58p     W
7  78.3  91.2   4:48p  66.6   6:06a   0.0  13.3  0.00   0.2   9.0   3:50p   NNW


Yeah the temps have been consistent at the house also...

By the way...Good day all.....Not often I visit the forums outside of Winter but wanted to drop by today..

This post has been edited by RobB: Jul 8 2011, 09:49 AM
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jdrenken
post Jul 8 2011, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jul 8 2011, 09:47 AM) *
CODE
                   TEMPERATURE (F), RAIN  (in), WIND SPEED (mph)

                                      HEAT  COOL        AVG
    MEAN                              DEG   DEG         WIND                 DOM
DAY TEMP  HIGH   TIME   LOW    TIME   DAYS  DAYS  RAIN  SPEED HIGH   TIME    DIR
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  76.3  86.1   4:58p  66.1   6:16a   0.0  11.3  0.00   0.4  10.0   3:41p     W
2  77.6  89.1   5:45p  68.7   5:49a   0.0  12.6  0.08   0.8  13.0   3:45p    SW
3  81.4  90.3   3:41p  71.6   6:46a   0.0  16.4  0.00   1.1  17.0   2:51p     W
4  77.0  85.5   5:26p  70.1  11:56p   0.0  11.9  0.00   0.4  11.0   3:37p    SW
5  76.7  90.1   5:10p  62.4   6:57a   0.2  11.9  0.00   0.3  10.0   4:33p    SW
6  78.1  90.1   3:54p  65.1   6:23a   0.0  13.1  0.00   0.4  11.0   2:58p     W
7  78.3  91.2   4:48p  66.6   6:06a   0.0  13.3  0.00   0.2   9.0   3:50p   NNW


Yeah the temps have been consistent at the house also...

By the way...Good day all.....Not often I visit the forums outside of Winter but wanted to drop by today..


Great to see you again Rob!


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The Snowman
post Jul 8 2011, 10:26 PM
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NAEFS Ensemble Image 0z July 8
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Snow____
post Jul 8 2011, 11:46 PM
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QUOTE(SWOhioweather @ Jul 8 2011, 10:06 AM) *
Yeah, so far in July everyday has reached 90 IMBY. Looks like this could be a pretty large heatwave for our part with temperatures near 100.


I don't think temps got above 95 too many times last summer so this would definitely be a big deal around these parts.
QUOTE(RobB @ Jul 8 2011, 10:47 AM) *
CODE
                   TEMPERATURE (F), RAIN  (in), WIND SPEED (mph)

                                      HEAT  COOL        AVG
    MEAN                              DEG   DEG         WIND                 DOM
DAY TEMP  HIGH   TIME   LOW    TIME   DAYS  DAYS  RAIN  SPEED HIGH   TIME    DIR
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  76.3  86.1   4:58p  66.1   6:16a   0.0  11.3  0.00   0.4  10.0   3:41p     W
2  77.6  89.1   5:45p  68.7   5:49a   0.0  12.6  0.08   0.8  13.0   3:45p    SW
3  81.4  90.3   3:41p  71.6   6:46a   0.0  16.4  0.00   1.1  17.0   2:51p     W
4  77.0  85.5   5:26p  70.1  11:56p   0.0  11.9  0.00   0.4  11.0   3:37p    SW
5  76.7  90.1   5:10p  62.4   6:57a   0.2  11.9  0.00   0.3  10.0   4:33p    SW
6  78.1  90.1   3:54p  65.1   6:23a   0.0  13.1  0.00   0.4  11.0   2:58p     W
7  78.3  91.2   4:48p  66.6   6:06a   0.0  13.3  0.00   0.2   9.0   3:50p   NNW


Yeah the temps have been consistent at the house also...

By the way...Good day all.....Not often I visit the forums outside of Winter but wanted to drop by today..

Thanks for stopping by Rob, rare sighting indeed. Those temps look like my house, with dew points around 70 everyday, it's just been very uncomfortable lately.


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RobB
post Jul 9 2011, 07:36 AM
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Thanks Snow and JD! I will try and poke my head in more...

So much more a winter hound but will try to post especially with fun weather around..

Catch you all later!
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jdrenken
post Jul 9 2011, 08:55 AM
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The OPC is going with a 596 high over Memphis on the 12th.


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jdrenken
post Jul 9 2011, 09:27 PM
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CPC Hazards showing 'Excessive Heat' for the 11th-13th period. We will see another set up afterwards as a cold front is poised to push South and stall out before retreating back North as a warm front later in the week.
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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 10 2011, 05:28 AM
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Looks like date needs bumped up a day
QUOTE
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BUILDING INTO CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS MONDAY...

.A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD MONDAY BRINGING INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO THE AREA.

ILZ036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-102000-
/O.NEW.KILX.HT.Y.0003.110711T1700Z-110712T0000Z/
FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-
CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-
MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...HAVANA...
LINCOLN...CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...DANVILLE...JACKSONV
LLE...
SPRINGFIELD...TAYLORVILLE...DECATUR...CHARLESTON..
MATTOON...
SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE
302 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY.

*TIMING...DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

*AIR TEMPERATURE AND HEAT INDEX VALUES...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
COUPLED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.

*IMPACTS...DUE TO THE HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HEAT STRESS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS... IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE... RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK... THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY... CALL 9 1 1.

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE.
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY
OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

&&

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jdrenken
post Jul 10 2011, 07:49 AM
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I went ahead and changed the date to the 9th because of station W1DY's reading in NW OKC.

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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Jul 10 2011, 08:08 AM
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QUOTE
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

..RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT OKLAHOMA CITY FOR JULY 9

..RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED FOR THE MONTH OF JULY

THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY AT WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT WAS 110
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY RECORD FOR JULY 9TH. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 106 DEGREES SET IN 1964.

THE 110 DEGREES ALSO TIES THE RECORD TEMPERATURE AT OKLAHOMA CITY IN
THE MONTH OF JULY. A TEMPERATURE OF 110 DEGREES WAS ALSO RECORDED ON
JULY 6 1996.

THE 110 DEGREES TIES FOR THE THIRD HIGHEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED
IN OKLAHOMA CITY. THE OKLAHOMA CITY ALL-TIME RECORD IS 113 DEGREES
RECORDED ON AUGUST 11 1936. THE SECOND HIGHEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED
WAS 112 DEGREES ON AUGUST 10 1936.

TODAY IS THE 11TH CONSECUTIVE DAY...AND THE 20TH DAY SO FAR THIS
YEAR...THAT THE TEMPERATURE AT OKLAHOMA CITY HAS BEEN 100 DEGREES OR
MORE.

THE RECORD FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF DAYS IN A YEAR WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 100 DEGREES OR MORE IS 50...WHICH WAS SET IN 1980. THE RECORD FOR
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 100 DEGREES OR MORE IS 22 DAYS FROM AUGUST
4 TO AUGUST 25 1936.

TODAY IS ALSO THE HOTTEST DAY IN OKLAHOMA CITY SINCE JULY 6TH IN
1996...THE LAST TIME THAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 110 DEGREES.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR OKLAHOMA CITY DATE BACK TO 1890.


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It's a work in progress!

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Snow____
post Jul 10 2011, 09:09 AM
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I have an Excessive Heat Watch out for my county, I think a Heat Advisory would suffice, it just looks so odd to see that random to have that EHW all by itself.


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WeatherMonger
post Jul 10 2011, 12:45 PM
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QUOTE
Hot and humid conditions will dominate the weather today and early next week. Some of the hottest temperatures of the season will affect the Bi-State region and heat advisories are in effect across much of the area today through Tuesday. This hot weather combined with high humidity will produce heat index values of 100-105 degrees today. Hotter air temperatures on Monday will likely drive the heat index higher...with readings of 105 to 115 during the afternoon. Tuesday may be a little cooler with a chance for afternoon thunderstorms...but heat index values are still expected to be around 105 in the afternoon.
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 10 2011, 02:33 PM
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QUOTE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
212 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>045-047>056-061>063-066>068-071>073-110000-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-
MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-SHELBY-
CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALESBURG...PEORIA...BLOOMINGTON...
NORMAL...HAVANA...LINCOLN...CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...J
CKSONVILLE...
SPRINGFIELD...TAYLORVILLE...DECATUR...CHARLESTON..
MATTOON...
SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE
212 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

TEMPERATURES SIZZLING IN THE LOWER 90S DURING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES PEAKING BETWEEN 95 AND 105 DEGREES
THROUGH 7 PM. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL SOUTH OF PEORIA.

AVOID BEING OUTDOORS FOR PROLONGED PERIODS IN THE AFTERNOON SUN.
IF YOU MUST WORK OUTDOORS...WEAR LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING...DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AN AIR CONDITIONED OR
SHADED AREA TO ESCAPE THE HEAT. NEVER LEAVE PETS OR CHILDREN IN
UNATTENDED VEHICLES.

$$

KH
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 10 2011, 03:10 PM
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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
252 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND THEY ARE POISED TO BUILD FOR ONE MORE DAY.
THEN...A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL GIVE US SOME
RELIEF FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT/HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HOW HOT IT WILL BE TO BEGIN AND END
THE WEEK...AS WELL AS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN THE INTERIM WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MEANWHILE...SPOTTY CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER THE NORTH
DAKOTA IS APT TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS TONIGHT. WHILE THE
THICKNESS PATTERN AND CORFIDI VECTORS IN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM/S
REMNANTS OR NEW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MCV ARE FORECAST BY
THESE MODELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. DO NOT
HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS CONVECTION OCCURRING IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A WELL CAPPED AIRMASS LOCALLY. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE
OUT THIS POTENTIAL ENTIRELY AND HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUDS/POPS
ACCORDINGLY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER/OUTFLOW/PCPN
ON MONDAY...THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BUST OR...
ALTERNATIVELY...NOT BE HOT ENOUGH


LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
RETROGRADES BACK WEST TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW
BRIEFLY DEVELOPS ALOFT LOCALLY. THE RIDGING NEAR THE ROCKIES WILL
BUILD BACK EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...AS WELL AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THIS
WEEK INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE AS HOT/HUMID AS WE ARE
SEEING NOW...IF NOT MORE SO.
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