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> Aug. 11-13 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 2,3 Slight Risk Forecasts & OBS
snowlover2
post Aug 10 2011, 04:58 AM
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Next severe threat starting tomorrow in the northern Plains.

SPC Outlooks


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:2

# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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jeffro
post Aug 10 2011, 09:46 AM
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It looks clear for my area =(
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WeatherMonger
post Aug 11 2011, 07:18 AM
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Sounds like this could e our best shot at some quality precip. We could use a good soaking, but some rumbles of thunder would be a nice bonus as well

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
615 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

SPC EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FRI EVENING EAST TO A
PEORIA TO DECATUR TO EFFINGHAM LINE. PER SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...DIABATIC
WARMING SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF THIS
ACTIVITY...AND STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND REDEVELOP ALONG PRE-EXISTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL JET
ALONG BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS EVOLUTION INTO MCS CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

COLD FRONT TO PRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH IL SAT KEEPING LIKELY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIEST RAINS IN EASTERN AND SE
IL. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SE OF IL SAT BUT COULD BE A
FEW STRONG STORMS SAT AFTERNOON NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE AIR
MASS COULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE IF WE SEE ANY SUNSHINE.
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WeatherMonger
post Aug 11 2011, 07:30 AM
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QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS...AND EWD ACROSS AR INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD...SOME
SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE CONUS IS
EXPECTED...WITH FLOW TRENDING A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. A MAIN
FEATURE ALOFT IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL BE A COMPLEX
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
SPREADING INTO THE DAKOTAS/NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SWD AND THEN
STALLS ACROSS N TX AND EWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.

...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WITH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIAL PIECE OF THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS/WRN NEB. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION -- POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT AND VICINITY INITIALLY...BUT THEN EWD INTO SRN
ND/SD AND EVENTUALLY NEB.

WITH 40 TO 50 KT WLYS ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM SPREADING
ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS -- PARTICULARLY INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES. AS A RESULT...DEVELOPING STORMS SHOULD
ORGANIZE/ACQUIRE ROTATION...AND GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
EXPECTED...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR DEPENDING UPON STORM
MODE...THOUGH INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
CLUSTERS/ONE OR MORE MCS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD GREATER WIND
THREAT BUT A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...UPSCALE-GROWING STORMS
SHOULD TURN SSEWD...CROSSING NEB AND SERN SD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

...OK AND VICINITY EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AREA...
ONGOING CONVECTION FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/AR WILL COMPLICATE
THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE DETAILS OF EVOLUTION. IN GENERAL
HOWEVER...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR AND N OF
THE SURFACE FRONT AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AWAY FROM
LINGERING CLOUDS/CONVECTION.

DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW...ELY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
RISK FOR HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.

..GOSS/LEITMAN.. 08/11/2011
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WeatherMonger
post Aug 11 2011, 07:35 AM
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QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID-LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

VORT MAX NOW OVER WA STATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE N-CNTRL PLAINS
AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL PERSIST FROM SERN STATES WNWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND OK/KS. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS...

RESERVOIR OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NWD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES SELY EAST OF CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH. WLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN EML PLUME WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE-STRONG MLCAPE FROM NRN OK THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND
MID-LOWER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE
LIKELIHOOD ONGOING STORMS FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS NORTH OF FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON NOSE OF SSWLY LLJ FROM ERN NEB THROUGH A PORTION OF ERN KS
AND MID MS VALLEY. DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND
REDEVELOP ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
MID LEVEL JET ALONG BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 35-45 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS EVOLUTION INTO MCS CLUSTERS.
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 08/11/2011
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WeatherMonger
post Aug 11 2011, 07:40 AM
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QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGIONS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD
WITH POSITIVE TILT AXIS LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEYS AND SRN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

...OH VALLEY THROUGH TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...

SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY. SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
FROM RETREATING MID ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
MOIST. AS STORMS ADVANCE EWD...AREAS OF CLOUDS...POOR LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OH VALLEY. FOR THIS REASON THE
SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN IN THIS REGION...BUT A CATEGORICAL RISK
MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

BETTER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE SWLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE NEWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
THIS REGION WILL EXIST JUST SOUTH OF MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH
UPPER TROUGH BASE. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REDEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY ALONG PRE-EXISTING PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMA. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AS STORMS ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 08/11/2011

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CentralIllinois
post Aug 12 2011, 08:24 PM
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ILX:
QUOTE
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
ACTIVE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WHEN IT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...
THOUGH IF CONDITIONS TONIGHT REMAIN DRIER AND LESS CLOUDY...WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST.


Source


--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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WeatherMonger
post Aug 13 2011, 01:19 AM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Aug 12 2011, 08:24 PM) *
ILX:

Source

I like this part of new day 1 as well. Not staying awake long enough to post entire outlook. Hopefully it pans out
QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH
VLY REGIONS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPR LOW/TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE UPR MIDWEST EARLY SATURDAY
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY REGIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...SVRL MCV/S WILL TRAVEL ESE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/OZARKS INTO THE MID/DEEP-SOUTH. IN THE LWR-LVLS...THE SFC
LOW TIED TO THE STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM MN/WI INTO LWR
MI DURING THE AFTN. SEGMENTED COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFTS WILL SETTLE
SEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OH/MID-MS VLYS AND BE IMPETUS FOR PSBL
ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. TO THE S...A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/OLD
FRONT WILL EXIST FROM PARTS OF THE RED RVR VLY SEWD INTO THE DEEP S.


...CNTRL GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VLY REGIONS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING CLOUDS/CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TIED TO A WEAK LEAD MID-LVL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS LWR MI. PASSAGE OF THIS IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN A
DECIDEDLY VEERED WSW LLVL FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE
OVER THE UPR MS VLY. WHILE THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL MASS
CONVERGENCE...FLOW REGIME WILL TRANSPORT LWR 60S SFC DEW POINTS FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST. COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS AND
REASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY
AFTN FROM IL NEWD INTO SERN LWR MI.

CONVECTION MAY FESTER ALL DAY IN LWR MI...LIMITING NWD EXTENT OF
STRONGER THERMAL BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF THE SFC LOW/WEAK
TURNING IN LOWEST 1-2KM AND POCKETS OF HEATING PSBL...BRIEF
ORGANIZED STORMS MAY RESULT IN DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
ACROSS LWR MI. THE STRONGER THREATS OF SVR STORMS WILL DEVELOP
MID-AFTN ONWARD IN NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IND IN COMPARATIVELY
STRONGER CAPE AND AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING ARRIVES. THE REGION WILL
BE ALONG/N OF A 40-45 KT WLY MID-LVL JET WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WITH SVR WINDS/HAIL
. ACTIVITY WILL
BACKBUILD SWWD INTO THE LWR OH AND PSBLY THE MID-MS VLYS DURING THE
LATE AFTN AND ADVANCE SEWD TOWARD SRN OH/KY DURING THE EVE WITH A
CONTINUED HIGH WIND THREAT.

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The Snowman
post Aug 13 2011, 11:59 AM
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Feel bad for the Boone County Fair folk- this isn't pretty.

QUOTE
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN DE
KALB...SOUTHERN BOONE...SOUTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO...NORTHERN OGLE AND
SOUTHERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

AT 1140 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BELVIDERE TO OREGON...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MARENGO AROUND 1210 PM CDT.
KIRKLAND...KINGSTON AND GENOA AROUND 1215 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
DAVIS JUNCTION AND UNION.

THOSE ATTENDING THE BOONE COUNTY FAIR ARE IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS AND SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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WeatherMonger
post Aug 13 2011, 12:01 PM
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QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IL...SERN WI...NRN IND...SWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 131645Z - 131745Z

A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE...NOW OVER
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE AND EMBEDDED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER DIGGING ACROSS IOWA.
AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING DEVELOPS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
18-20Z...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEST AND SOUTH OF
CHICAGO...THROUGH THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA AND ADJACENT
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT MODEST...BUT A
BAND OF 30-40 KT FLOW IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTION...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WITH
HEATING OF THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. IT PROBABLY IS
STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...WHICH MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
AFTER 20-21Z SOUTH AND EAST OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
MODESTLY LARGE CAPE /ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ MAY BE
CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IN STRONGER STORMS
UNTIL THEN.

..KERR.. 08/13/2011


ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...D
N...

LAT...LON 42608535 41328476 40448640 40168733 40018873 40578929
41038988 41878915 42578822 43008686 42608535


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WeatherMonger
post Aug 13 2011, 12:04 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Aug 13 2011, 11:59 AM) *
Feel bad for the Boone County Fair folk- this isn't pretty.

I was just telling a coworker we stand a good chance at a good storm either today or Tuesday/Wednesday here in Springfield. Seems we always get at least one good event during the state fair.
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Louieloy102
post Aug 13 2011, 01:24 PM
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Severe t storm warning n cook county. Source:NOAA
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WeatherMonger
post Aug 13 2011, 01:27 PM
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Got busy at work, but being on the far SW fringe doesn't bode well on confidence of getting something today.

QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
FAR NORTHWESTERN OHIO
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL NEWD INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY ENCOUNTER A WARMING AND DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS. COLD AIR ALOFT FAVORS SOME STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL...THOUGH
THE GREATER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORM
OUTFLOWS CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS WITHIN THE DEEP AND MODERATELY
STRONG WLY TROPOSPHERIC WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30025.


...IMY



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Louieloy102
post Aug 13 2011, 01:37 PM
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No hail, 30 mph gusts, and basically a heavy rain shower. Yawn.
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Juniorrr
post Aug 13 2011, 02:52 PM
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Storms seem to be moving like turtles >.>
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CentralIllinois
post Aug 13 2011, 03:06 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Aug 13 2011, 01:27 PM) *
Got busy at work, but being on the far SW fringe doesn't bode well on confidence of getting something today.

Most recent HRRR looks good


--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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WeatherMonger
post Aug 13 2011, 03:25 PM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Aug 13 2011, 03:06 PM) *
Most recent HRRR looks good

Yeah, been watching every few runs or so. Building ok to my west, but think you're in a better situation. Not sure if they can go severe in time to affect here. Catch 22 in a sense, I want a good storm but it's the first Saturday of the state fair as well. I'm sure it's jam packed today
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WeatherMonger
post Aug 13 2011, 03:27 PM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Aug 13 2011, 03:06 PM) *
Most recent HRRR looks good

Also, ILX had been downplaying it all day. Were concerned about lack of convergence and dropped precip chances to 30%. DOH!
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WeatherMonger
post Aug 13 2011, 03:30 PM
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Looks like the storm just south of Virginia may go warned soon. Bit of a right turn and it could benefit me. Hate being stuck at work, but 40 hours overtime this week will make up for any lack of storm.
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CentralIllinois
post Aug 13 2011, 03:22 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Aug 13 2011, 03:27 PM) *
Also, ILX had been downplaying it all day. Were concerned about lack of convergence and dropped precip chances to 30%. DOH!

laugh.gif I think we have a better chance than 30% of seeing something


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