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> Anniversary of Katrina
SnowMan11
post Aug 26 2014, 10:32 PM
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This is scary to hear
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkruQZpQ2g8#t=32


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Sagebrusher
post Aug 26 2014, 10:49 PM
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Here's the Katrina thread for interesting reading...please don't post there.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...atrina&st=0
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WeatherMate
post May 27 2015, 05:11 AM
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Yes Katrina is among the five deadliest hurricanes in the history of the United States.


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Sagebrusher
post Aug 26 2015, 01:53 PM
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The death toll is up to 4.


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crm6360
post Aug 26 2005, 06:47 AM
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I'm amazed that the official TPC intensity forecast is so conservative given their forecsated favorable atmospheric environment in the nrothern gulf, and the extremely high SSTs.

For once I agree with Mike that Cat 4 or 5 certainly is attainable. 3 days is a lot of time. I'm really scratching my head as to why alarm bells aren't already going off. We'll see what happens.
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avsguy01
post Aug 26 2005, 09:11 AM
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I am really surprised of the conservative forecasted strength for this storm. This thing has held it's own very well over land, even came in stronger than expected, and quickly moved over the pennisula back out into a very favorable environment. Katrina is going to be a monster!!! Watch out, i have a feeling we'll be talking about this one for a long time.
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crm6360
post Aug 26 2005, 10:02 AM
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Wouldn't surprise me to see the pressure tumble to the 960s by tonight. It looks poised to explode.
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emcf74
post Aug 26 2005, 11:17 AM
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So.... any good chance Katrina will do a hairpin turnabout and hit Tampa?

This morning, I heard both a local TV meteorologist and radio station DJ state that we (people in the Tampa-St. Pete metro) have "again been lucky" in dodging a hurricane. My feeling is that, while she appears to be heading away, she's not past us yet. I remember Elena in 1985 doing a loop-de-loop at the mouth of Tampa Bay- hurricanes can do wierd things. And the fat lady hasn't sung yet.

Although, for argument's sake, Tampa does seem to be hurricaneproof.

-Emily (native Floridian)


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Paul Cowan
post Aug 26 2005, 11:17 AM
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At 11:30 am edt the special update reports pressure is down to 28.67" and winds sustained at 100 mph.


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Molassis
post Aug 26 2005, 11:24 AM
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Once again, I am preparing for ANOTHER hurricane. I just paid 2.76 per gallon to fill up my car... cost me 43.00 bucks! By the time I scrounge up enough money to buy 15 more gallons (for my generator) I probably won't be able to find gas because the Tom Thumb (our stations here) refuse to ship in more gas... it's stupid...

Sorry... just felt like ranting for a second...

What do ya'll think is the probability of this thing coming to Pensacola?

~Melissa
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chaser
post Aug 26 2005, 11:39 AM
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I'm with you Melissa..I'm in Ft. Walton, it's already nutz here too, gas stations and Lowe's are packed like a riot again.

We don't need this on our beaches..hwy. 98 to Destin is sitting just a few feet above sea level now. I don't wish any ill will on anyone but I hope this makes a bend into Appalachia bay. :cry:

The computers are all over the place right now..unreal.
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Paul Cowan
post Aug 26 2005, 11:50 AM
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There is some hope for the florida panhandle. Moderatly dry air has been seeping south and southeastward for several days in response to high pressure to the north. The shear forcast for sunday shows that shear above 10kts will be in the northern gulf area. Moderate dry air plus shear may limit Katrina to no higher than a Cat 3 at landfall.

I know it may be a slim chance but you people in florida don't need another cat 4 or cat 5 storm, so let's hope that these two moderate changes do indeed develop and change her environment enough to keep her in check to some extent.

Wind gusts to 85 mph were reported from a ship anchored near Key West in the last hour.


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crm6360
post Aug 26 2005, 12:20 PM
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STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS


Paul, you and the NHC must be getting your shear forecast models from very different sources.
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Paul Cowan
post Aug 26 2005, 02:03 PM
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Yeah, sure looks that way or else two models have a different fan base! :? I will defer to the NHC as I always do!


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thundercloud
post Aug 26 2005, 02:21 PM
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The GFDL wants to bring this baby up to 153mph in short order...and bring her onshore with 131mph winds.


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thundercloud
post Aug 26 2005, 02:26 PM
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Dry Tortugas is reporting winds of 70mph gusting to 81mph with a pressure at 29.02"hg as of 3pm.


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chaser
post Aug 26 2005, 02:58 PM
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Looks like the latest models are pushing it west..NHC is still clinging to the Panhandle. :evil:

Go west Kathy...go West.
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Paul Cowan
post Aug 26 2005, 03:42 PM
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It looks like the pressure may be down to 28.34"!! 5 pm due out very soon and we'll see.

5 pm:

24.8n
82.9 W
Pressure:28.50"

Obviously, I haven't mastered the decoding of flight data yet. :oops:


--------------------
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thundercloud
post Aug 26 2005, 04:09 PM
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The forecast landfall intensity is now up to 115kt gusting to 140kt...the place is now looking to be west of Mobile, AL according to NHC anyway. Prelim death toll is up to 7.


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thundercloud
post Aug 26 2005, 04:13 PM
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Dry tortugas is reporting winds out of the WSW at 82mph gusting to 97mph with a pressure of 28.77"hg. at 4pm. The pressure there is falling at a rate of 0.54"hg per 3 hrs!


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ECferg
post Aug 26 2005, 04:28 PM
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And hello neighbor molasses...R U ready for another one?

Ok...I've seen to predictions as to landfall....I trust ya'll more than the weather guys. Do I put up the plywood or relax in the pool?

It couldn't happen AGAIN could it?
Calla
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thundercloud
post Aug 26 2005, 05:16 PM
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Ummm...plywood on standby...

The models are in good agreement in bringing Katrina ashore in the vacinity of the AL/Miss border as a strong hurricane (cat 4). However, since Katrina has continued moving WSW I would say that the track may be leading to a landfall from Mobile west to New Orleans based purely on this disagreement between models and reality so far. With that in mind the Pensacola area could still get some rough stuff with thtis one.

However, the exact track will depend on the timing of the front dropping though the plains and when it picks up Katrina and pulls the storm north. If the front comes in stronger than HPC projects it to, Katrina could get sucked up into the western FL panhandle.

Will say now that Mobile, once again, is my pick for landfall, with of course a possible deviance of 30 miles or so to either side of the bay mouth.


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Paul Cowan
post Aug 26 2005, 05:29 PM
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Mobile again, huh? Hmmn, I want to wait and see if this wsw stuff continues into the evening before I make a pic.


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My weather station:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/weathers...sp?ID=KNCFARMV1
North Carolina Drought Map:
http://drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?NC,SE

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