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> Tropical Depression Gabrielle, 11AM AST: 35 mph - 1007mb NNE @ 23 MPH
Ron in Miami
post Aug 31 2013, 01:43 PM
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BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al972013.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201308311837 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2013, DB, O, 2013083112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972013 AL, 97, 2013083012, , BEST, 0, 145N, 485W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 97, 2013083018, , BEST, 0, 147N, 502W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 97, 2013083100, , BEST, 0, 148N, 513W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 97, 2013083106, , BEST, 0, 149N, 526W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 97, 2013083112, , BEST, 0, 150N, 540W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 97, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 555W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Sep 13 2013, 12:08 PM
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 31 2013, 01:45 PM
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2. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED TODAY BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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beninbaltimore
post Aug 31 2013, 02:23 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Aug 31 2013, 01:45 PM) *
2. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED TODAY BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


If it doesn't get sheared apart and makes it past the Antilles this could have sleeper potential. CMC ensembles have a few members that develop this into a hit, GFS ensembles are less robust or take it recurving OTS. CMC can be a little over-zealous at times...but at least something to keep an eye on. Also, the EURO doesn't do much with it.

This post has been edited by beninbaltimore: Aug 31 2013, 02:24 PM


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jonjohnson
post Sep 1 2013, 06:47 AM
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ok wave 1 looking better and better through the last 24 and pressures were slowly dropping down to 29.82. they have been stable for the last 4 hours

looks like an open coc around 14n 57.5 w. convection on 3 sides of the large broad center but none to the south as of 10:45 utc. will it wrap around the south of the area over the next 6 hours or will it gulp dry air and fizzle again??? keep watching people

update at 12:15 UTC, In watching the convection one could still say that multiple centers are still tryong to form. pressures have risen to 29.87 as the lowest recorded

13:15 center of all this mess seems stronger again than other circulations. convection trying to wrap the location of 14N 59 W

14:45 utc, looks like coc is closed at 14.5 n 60 w. lets see what the pressure does

this is the closest thing to tropical storm in long time and no one is here

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grr915
post Sep 1 2013, 10:53 AM
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Not really sure why no one is here, I believe 97L is becoming the most interesting system to watch thus far this season when it comes to the possibility of it impacting the US. Although many models are not doing anything with this system at this point, the CMC consistency can't be ignored and also the fact that this wouldn't be the first dry wave to fire up as it approached the Lesser Antilles and become something newsworthy
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Ron in Miami
post Sep 1 2013, 12:37 PM
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The NHC is taking this one serious, it has it's own floater now.

invest 97 floater page
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shane o mac
post Sep 1 2013, 12:50 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Sep 1 2013, 02:37 PM) *
The NHC is taking this one serious, it has it's own floater now.

invest 97 floater page

I thought every model has it going ots and not coming close to North america ?
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grr915
post Sep 1 2013, 01:02 PM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Sep 1 2013, 01:50 PM) *
I thought every model has it going ots and not coming close to North america ?


Maybe you were thinking of invest 96 that came off of Africa? At this point models like the gfs and euro are not doing much with invest 97L but i believe that could change soon
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grr915
post Sep 1 2013, 01:06 PM
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HWRF out to hour 54 showing a big difference from previous runs
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Ron in Miami
post Sep 1 2013, 01:10 PM
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The CMC isn't alone, the HWRF has it approaching south FL on Firday (after clipping Haiti and eastern Cuba) as a strengthening TS. the NAVGEM is a bit slower, has it over the eastern tip of Cuba in 144hrs, and the CMC has it hitting Jamaica, crossing central Cuba and then through the Bahamas and OTS.
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Ron in Miami
post Sep 1 2013, 01:21 PM
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The NHC has upped it's chances as of 2pm, now orange 40/50% chance of development.

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
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jonjohnson
post Sep 1 2013, 01:34 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Sep 1 2013, 02:21 PM) *
The NHC has upped it's chances as of 2pm, now orange 40/50% chance of development.

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.


good to see some action and others talking about it. I thought I was watching it develop alone
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jonjohnson
post Sep 1 2013, 02:08 PM
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29.80 or 1009 mb's at st lucia airport and same in barbados

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The Snowman
post Sep 1 2013, 02:50 PM
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Would not be surprised to see this system creep up on the Gulf and get itself going there. Rather low shear across the Caribbean in coming days may help this system get going. I've been watching bursts of convection in the last 24 hours that are actually impressive. Certainly won't be ignoring this one.


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Ron in Miami
post Sep 1 2013, 03:31 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 1 2013, 03:50 PM) *
Would not be surprised to see this system creep up on the Gulf and get itself going there. Rather low shear across the Caribbean in coming days may help this system get going. I've been watching bursts of convection in the last 24 hours that are actually impressive. Certainly won't be ignoring this one.


Steering winds agree, if it stays week it'll go more west towards yucatan channel or bay of campeche. If it becomes a modest TS then towards the channel/western Cuba. If it organizes quickly into a hurricane then it would favor a curve, either over Cuba or DM/Haiti. Definitely needs to be monitored closely over the next few days.

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jonjohnson
post Sep 1 2013, 03:40 PM
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are we seeing sheer blowing the tops towards the southeast over last few hours???
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Ron in Miami
post Sep 1 2013, 04:09 PM
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QUOTE(jonjohnson @ Sep 1 2013, 04:40 PM) *
are we seeing sheer blowing the tops towards the southeast over last few hours???


I just looked at the visible imagery and it looks like outflow over the top of the system. You can see visible windshear if you look at the clouds south of PR, those are getting sheared by an ULL to the west.
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jonjohnson
post Sep 1 2013, 04:18 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Sep 1 2013, 05:09 PM) *
I just looked at the visible imagery and it looks like outflow over the top of the system. You can see visible windshear if you look at the clouds south of PR, those are getting sheared by an ULL to the west.


ok, just trying to understand why the convection is going east as the system marches west, intensifying? pressure has been steady from 3-5 o'clock at 29.80 (1009)mb in Barbados and st lucia.

Barbados
5 PM (21) Sep 01 82 (28) 80 (27) 29.80 (1009) NW 5
4 PM (20) Sep 01 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.80 (1009) N 7
3 PM (19) Sep 01 82 (28) 80 (27) 29.80 (1009) NNW 7 thunder in the vicinity

St lucia
5 PM (21) Sep 01 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) ENE 9
4 PM (20) Sep 01 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) E 14
3 PM (19) Sep 01 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) E 10
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jonjohnson
post Sep 1 2013, 04:55 PM
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seems to be typical evening storm lull, is there a reason they die down in the late afternoon, I think I've heard this some where BEFORE

FOUND MY ANSWER, DIURNAL CYCLE

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shane o mac
post Sep 1 2013, 05:09 PM
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Ill def keep a eye out for it ill be here frequently to chat about the track ect .
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