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> Oct 23-30 West (California) Cutoff Lows, Forecasts and OBS
Jet Developer
post Oct 13 2013, 08:39 PM
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After a wild week of weather starting with hot temperatures, high fire danger, and strong Santa Ana Winds followed by an unseasonably cold and strong winter-like Pacific storm, the weather for the following week looks to be much more uneventful. The last few days have been mild to cool following the storm. By tomorrow high pressure developing over the Great Basin will bring weak to moderate offshore flow which is expected to last into most of the coming week. This will be much weaker than the previous Santa Ana event, but the fire danger will still increase and temperatures West of the mountains will be slightly above normal.

From the NWS San Diego Sunday afternoon forecast discussion.
QUOTE
THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. ALSO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BUILD...BRINGING WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EACH NIGHT/MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL PROBABLY SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAN THEY WERE EARLIER FOR THIS TIME. UPPER WIND SUPPORT STILL LOOKS TO BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF DO SHOW SOME 20-25 KNOT 850 MB WIND BARBS...COMPARED TO 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE 06Z RUNS. THUS...WE COULD SEE SOME 40 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE FAVORED WIND-PRONE MOUNTAIN AND COASTAL FOOTHILL AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS.


This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Oct 23 2013, 06:35 PM


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Beck
post Oct 13 2013, 11:12 PM
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Thanks for creating the new thread. I still can't access NCEP Ensemble models but it doesn't look like we'll be seeing any rain anytime soon. I'm already sick of these dry wind events....bring on some cool Fall weather already!


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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idecline
post Oct 16 2013, 07:42 AM
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All of Southern California is expected to have a significant Santa Ana wind event on Wednesday.
The large high of the Great Basin is generating breezes that when compressed by downsloping off the mountains will bring gusts to 50 mph in some areas. The fog and coastal cloudiness should be pushed well out to sea with beach temperatures in the 70's and 80's.

High profile vehicles should use caution in the mountain passes where the winds can funnel to produce very gusty winds. The winds may also cause other driving hazards such as blowing sand and dust.

Fire Danger: Very dry conditions, low humidity, high winds, and extremely low moisture content in vegetation equal a very high fire danger. Please use caution and be aware of the possibility of quickly moving brush or forest fires.

Attached Image

Northern California will also have an off-shore event but not as strong or long-lived. The jet stream is pushing upper air energy down into far Northern California and this will squash some of the drier air in Central California and allow cooler temperatures to return for a day or two.


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idecline
post Oct 16 2013, 08:20 AM
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A Rex Block ( An upper level High is directly above a closed off Low pressure system) is going to have a say in California's weather in the next several days. JD (as in jdrenken voice of KOPN listener sponsored Public Radio) our Super-Moderator says in the Long Range Winter thread

QUOTE
Rex block setting up right off the west coast is different than '11-'12. That year, the rex block was farther north which allowed warm pacific air to rotate on the southern side of the low. This year, the rex block being south allows the northern jet more influence and look out for southern jet interaction. wink.gif


This is a typical early Fall pattern off the Pacific coast, but the lower orientation of the block should allow for much more interesting weather than the La Nina attuned block of '11-'12......


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ChrisL
post Oct 16 2013, 10:06 AM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Oct 16 2013, 06:20 AM) *
A Rex Block ( An upper level High is directly above a closed off Low pressure system) is going to have a say in California's weather in the next several days. JD (as in jdrenken voice of KOPN listener sponsored Public Radio) our Super-Moderator says in the Long Range Winter thread
This is a typical early Fall pattern off the Pacific coast, but the lower orientation of the block should allow for much more interesting weather than the La Nina attuned block of '11-'12......


Jdecline,

So in other words this semi warm stagnant weather will stay in place for at least another week? I'm assuming that is true just by looking at the LR.

On the topic of winds...so far here in Corona it's been just breezy. No gusts yet wink.gif
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Jet Developer
post Oct 16 2013, 11:05 PM
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Southern California Weather Authority is predicting well above normal rainfall this winter. We will see if that comes true.

Our Indian Summer is boring but beautiful. Too bad I have to work all day and get home right before the sun goes down, but tonight was a nice warm evening. The dry air makes it feel cooler though.

Looks to be a little cooler for the weekend but still very warm and comfortable. For those longing for Fall weather, you should move to a colder climate.

===

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Oct 16 2013, 11:14 PM


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Beck
post Oct 18 2013, 02:31 PM
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QUOTE(Jet Developer @ Oct 16 2013, 09:05 PM) *
For those longing for Fall weather, you should move to a colder climate.

Thanks laugh.gif

Our weather continues to be very stagnant after the storm a week ago. Very little change in temperatures, or anything else really, through the end of the month. NCEP Ensemble models are available again, and they show no significant change through at least Nov 1.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Beck
post Oct 19 2013, 07:45 PM
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Today was quite warm, it got up to 91F here. Nights are still gradually getting cooler though, providing relief from the daytime heat. We've been having lows between 48F and 52F consistently over the past few days now.

Jet, you're already counting down to the next Summer Solstice in your signature? Come on! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Beck: Oct 19 2013, 07:46 PM


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Jet Developer
post Oct 20 2013, 03:07 PM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Oct 19 2013, 05:45 PM) *
Jet, you're already counting down to the next Summer Solstice in your signature? Come on! laugh.gif


OK, I took it out. Maybe I'll put it back in December. Anyway in just 2 weeks the time will change and it will be dark at 5:30.

We had some dense fog this morning which took a while to burn off in the weak late October sun. Looks like the beaches have a little better clearing today, but it could blow back in early.


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Beck
post Oct 21 2013, 03:20 AM
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QUOTE(Jet Developer @ Oct 20 2013, 01:07 PM) *
OK, I took it out. Maybe I'll put it back in December. Anyway in just 2 weeks the time will change and it will be dark at 5:30.

We had some dense fog this morning which took a while to burn off in the weak late October sun. Looks like the beaches have a little better clearing today, but it could blow back in early.

laugh.gif I was just messing around. It's your signature, do what you want with it - doesn't bother me.

I officially have not seen a single cloud since last Sunday. Yesterday was the 7th "Sunny" day in a row that I've marked on my calendar.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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idecline
post Oct 22 2013, 08:30 AM
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Blocking Alert:

The High Pressure off of the West Coast has been very stubborn and will hang around for several more days.
It is very interesting on the WV loop which shows an 'eye' of dry air off the Washington coast that is entirely stationary. The jet stream is using this 'ridge' as focus of where the energy from the North is directed down in the CONUS. As JD has noted in the LR threads, the block is different from the year of 2011-2012, it is a very stable pattern for now, and the only possible storm energy to enter California would have to sneak under the ridge. Otherwise until there is movement in the upper air pattern, we will be high and dry.

Attached Image

Santa Cruz is 'basking' in early Fall weather: 70's in the daytime, with low clouds and fog and temps in the 40's to 50's at night.... While Southern California is a little warmer, 70's to 80's, with cool temperatures at night away from the coast.


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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Beck
post Oct 22 2013, 05:58 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Oct 22 2013, 06:30 AM) *
Blocking Alert:

The High Pressure off of the West Coast has been very stubborn and will hang around for several more days.
It is very interesting on the WV loop which shows an 'eye' of dry air off the Washington coast that is entirely stationary. The jet stream is using this 'ridge' as focus of where the energy from the North is directed down in the CONUS. As JD has noted in the LR threads, the block is different from the year of 2011-2012, it is a very stable pattern for now, and the only possible storm energy to enter California would have to sneak under the ridge. Otherwise until there is movement in the upper air pattern, we will be high and dry.

Attached Image

Santa Cruz is 'basking' in early Fall weather: 70's in the daytime, with low clouds and fog and temps in the 40's to 50's at night.... While Southern California is a little warmer, 70's to 80's, with cool temperatures at night away from the coast.

Another interesting topic the NWS brought up recently is that the calendar year-to-date precipitation is very low, setting records in some parts of the state. The release of the NOAA official 2013-14 winter outlook has been delayed until November, but other monthly outlooks (DJF) are still available. Those outlooks show Equal Chances for above or below normal precipitation across the state.

ENSO outlook for 2013-14 predicts Neutral conditions throughout the winter. Some models (CFSv2) forecast warming SST's, but warming in the equatorial Pacific would be very unlikely at this point.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Jet Developer
post Oct 22 2013, 11:23 PM
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Marine layer took forever to burn off this morning and there was even some drizzle. The sun did not come out until about 12 pm. I think Temecula may get some fog by tomorrow morning to end the long streak of sunny days for you, Beck.

Today was also the last day at 33.65 N latitude that the Sun was higher than 45 degrees above the horizon at solar noon. Next time it reaches above 45 degrees is not until February 19, 2014, so your shadow will always be longer than you until that time.


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Beck
post Oct 23 2013, 12:24 AM
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QUOTE(Jet Developer @ Oct 22 2013, 09:23 PM) *
Marine layer took forever to burn off this morning and there was even some drizzle. The sun did not come out until about 12 pm. I think Temecula may get some fog by tomorrow morning to end the long streak of sunny days for you, Beck.

Today was also the last day at 33.65 N latitude that the Sun was higher than 45 degrees above the horizon at solar noon. Next time it reaches above 45 degrees is not until February 19, 2014, so your shadow will always be longer than you until that time.

We actually got some clouds this morning and again earlier this evening, which means that I can mark today as "Mostly Sunny".

I've noticed the shorter days already (mainly earlier sunsets) - I have classes that I attend at the local college on some evenings, and now it's already almost dark when I get there. Two weeks ago the sun was still up and bright by that time.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Beck
post Oct 23 2013, 09:39 AM
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Completely foggy and even a little drizzle here this morning.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Jet Developer
post Oct 23 2013, 11:48 AM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Oct 23 2013, 07:39 AM) *
Completely foggy and even a little drizzle here this morning.


Yep, it looks more like early June than late October. No fog or drizzle here, but it's extremely gloomy. Somehow the models always seem to underestimate the marine layer depth with these small low pressure systems. No signs of any burn off yet, so marine layer must be still deepening. I'd guess it will get close to 4000 ft. by tomorrow morning.

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Oct 23 2013, 11:49 AM


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Jet Developer
post Oct 23 2013, 06:39 PM
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Marine layer did not burn off until about 1 pm today. Looks like one more day of little to no sun and cool temperatures before a brief weekend warm up. The Sun is now half way down to the Tropic of Capricorn from the Equator, but we are only 1/3rd into the Fall.


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Beck
post Oct 23 2013, 07:15 PM
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QUOTE(Jet Developer @ Oct 23 2013, 04:39 PM) *
Marine layer did not burn off until about 1 pm today. Looks like one more day of little to no sun and cool temperatures before a brief weekend warm up. The Sun is now half way down to the Tropic of Capricorn from the Equator, but we are only 1/3rd into the Fall.

It's very hazy today - you can actually see the lack of ground visibility from satellite:

Attached Image


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Beck
post Oct 24 2013, 09:46 AM
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Marine layer is pretty maxed out this morning.

Attached Image


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Jet Developer
post Oct 24 2013, 10:33 AM
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It is extremely dark and gloomy this morning as this stupid low does not have enough cold air advection to weaken the inversion. Could be one of those rare days where no place West of the mountains sees any clearing, but I'm guessing the Inland Empire will clear late and the beaches may try to reverse clear. Most likely the clouds will stay over the beaches but be thinner than near the foothills.

Next week's low has a little more hope of wiping out the marine inversion and getting rid of this terrible air quality.

Anyway this marine layer should definitely cool down Palm Springs today as it's looming over the Banning Pass and Beaumont is 51 F with 100% humidity. Also the dew points shot up in Palm Springs late last evening.

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Oct 24 2013, 10:35 AM


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