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NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:41 PM


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For around this area. Cant wait.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234885 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 09:08 PM


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QUOTE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
926 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Tuesday...

Summer is back. It will be hot and humid
as high pressure
shifts offshore and southwest breezes increase, well in advance
of an approaching cold front. With 925 mb temperatures reaching
25-26C and a good deal of sunshine, expecting highs to soar to
90-95. Dewpoints will be rising to near 70 by late afternoon and
heat indices will be reach the mid 90s. Our new criteria for
Heat Advisories is 95 degrees, but it needs to be for 2
consecutive days, unless it hits 100, which would only require
1 day. Since it will probably not be reached on Monday, we may
issue a Special Weather Statement to draw attention to it, as
opposed to a Heat Advisory.

Southwest winds increase to 30-40 kts at 925 mb Tue afternoon,
so expect gusts at the surface to 20-25 mph at times, especially
in southeast MA and RI. CAPE is maximized over NY state, well
to our west, close to the cold front and that is where the best
potential exists for strong/severe thunderstorm activity.
However, a few showers and thunderstorms could form over the
higher terrain of western MA and northwest CT in the mid-late
afternoon hours.


Wednesday...

Cold front swings across southern New England. Timing is still in
question, but consensus would have the front exiting the coast
in the afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...

High pressure builds in at the surface while an upper trough digs
south from Quebec. The trough will carry a cold pool with cold
advection aloft on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures at 500 mb
will minimize at around -16C early Saturday morning. Moisture
fields show a moist layer between 850 and 700 mb during this
period, but dry air above and below. This looks like a mostly
sunny and dry pattern, but the instability shows some potential
for a few showers on Saturday. The mixed layer reaches to
between 850 and 800 mb, with temps at the top of the layer
supporting max sfc temps in the 70s...giving a fall-like feel.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s each night
.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234820 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 03:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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4 Maps..

Today August 20, 2017. Many days like this north of Philly this month. Max 70s-Low 80s with dews in the dry 50s and low 60s

Attached Image




Tomorrow August 21, 2017. Hot-Humid one.


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Mid week here comes the front


Attached Image



End of week..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234813 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 03:26 PM


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Euro12z temps at 5000' for Thursday morning

Attached Image

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234812 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 03:16 PM


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The change from day before to after still seems like it will be impressive. For northern New England its Tuesday to Wednesday difference. Here we have to wait till Friday to feel the effects.

After the front passes there will be a sigh of relief and that "taste" of fall.

NWS Burlington VT

QUOTE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Overnight lows will not cool off much especially Monday night
in high dewpoint air, and cooling/drying will not arrive in time
Tuesday night to be of much help. Max temps Tuesday well into
the 80s once again with warm air advection, and will be quite a
muggy day.



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 253 PM EDT Sunday...The extended forecast will feature
large scale pattern change as deep full latitude trof develops
across the eastern Conus and ridge builds out west. This will
result in temps returning to at or below normal values with much
less humidity.
The forecast challenge will be timing individual
short waves in the southwest to eventually northwest flow aloft
and potential areal coverage of showers. Overall...the
atmosphere will have much less available moisture as pw values
drop below 1.0 and instability is very limited.

On Wednesday...first embedded 5h vort arrives around 18z...along
with secondary surface convergence line with some additional weak
low level cold air advection behind boundary. Instability is driven
off sfc heating and developing cool pool aloft with deepening
trof...so 30 to 40% chance of showers with maybe a rumble or two of
thunder...but cape values are weak. Soundings show high cloud bases
with deep dry layer so areal coverage of showers will be
limited...but some localized gusty winds possible based on sounding
profiles. Progged 850mb temps around 10c support highs upper 60s
mountains to upper 70s warmest values.
Low level cold air advection
continues overnight into Thurs with progged 850mb temps dropping
btwn 5-7c by 12z Thurs. The gradient flow will limit fog development
and keep temps from completely bottoming out with lows mainly 40s
mountains to mid/upper 50s valleys.

Thursday...another embedded 5h vort in the west/northwest flow aloft
and associated pocket of -20c air moves across our cwa
.
This energy
will limited moisture will help to produce isolated/scattered
showers during on Thurs aftn. Once again areal coverage and amount
of showers will be limited...because of pws around 0.50 to 0.70.
Progged 850mb temps near 6c support highs upper 50s/lower 60s
mountains to lower 70s warmest valleys.


Friday into next weekend...will feature building 1025mb surface high
pres while aloft remains active with embedded 5h vorts in the
northwest flow.
Each piece of energy will have less impact with
limited moisture...so will keep Friday dry at this time...with temps
mainly 60s mountains and lower/mid 70s warmer valleys. Lows mainly
in the mid 30s to upper 40s depending upon locations
...with coldest
values at SLK/NEK...especially on Saturday morning.

Next weekend is
looking mainly dry with slightly below normal temps and low humidity
values. Highs in the 60s mountains and 70s valleys with lows ranging
from the lower 40s to mid 50s.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234811 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 01:18 PM


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https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/899260047095721986

Attached Image

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234802 · Replies: · Views: 91,460

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 07:25 AM


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Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Aug 20 2017, 07:38 AM) *
Looks like this might be muted by the time it moves into my zones.

GYX didn't really mention much


Last couple runs I checked it definitely got dampened. Not as deep as Euro showed but expected when we're 5+ days out. Now makes more sense with 850s in upper single digits around here.

Either way, will be nice to get a break from these 80s and humid days.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234793 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 06:11 AM


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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Aug 19 2017, 11:57 PM) *
I hope this cool snap is still coming because NWS made absolutely no mention of it in its discussion for late next week. they seem to think that the cold front will be slow to move through. Thursday's high has been raised from 70 to the mid-70s, which is very close to normal. The streak of Warm Thursdays may continue.


Maybe it was a certain forecaster who didnt mention anyyhing?
Looks like they do mention something regarding it with latest discussion. Short and vague. Probably because its nothing unusual.

QUOTE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
629 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Medium range models are in good agreement through the extended
period. In general a cutoff low in eastern Canada will keep a
deep upper level trough over the northeast while a cool fall-
like surface high builds southeast across the region from
central Canada. Will continue with slight chc/chance pops
Wednesday through Thursday for showers though this will be
primarily diurnally driven with low level moisture and cold pool
aloft. The rest of the period looks dry with high pressure in
the vicinity. Temperatures will run about 5 degrees below
seasonal normals.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234791 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 18 2017, 02:23 PM


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Taunton:

QUOTE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
112 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Big Picture...

Subtropical high remains in control across the Southern USA while a
general zonal flow continues across Canada and the Northern USA. The
flow becomes less zonal next midweek as Alaska closed upper low digs
south over the Gulf, subtropical upper ridge builds north over the
Western USA, and upper low over Hudsons Bay digs south into the
Northeast USA.

One shortwave moves across New England Saturday night, with brief
cooling aloft that destabilizes the airmass Sunday. A second
shortwave crosses New England Wednesday as the Hudsons Bay low
approaches and moves a supporting jet max across the region.

Contour heights are normal to a little higher than normal through
early next week. As the Quebec closed low deepens, heights over New
England dip below normal midweek.

Model mass and thermal fields from the 00Z suite are in general
agreement through Wednesday, building forecast confidence through
that time. Less agreement in the fields Thursday.

Details:

Tuesday night-Wednesday-Thursday...

Closed low digs over Quebec and the Northeast USA with shortwave
driving a cold front into/through New England. Expect
showers/scattered tstms with the front Tuesday night/Wednesday.
The airmass dries out Thursday, but lingering patches of
moisture in the mixed layer should generate some diurnal sky



Euro12z below normal for this area 25th till end of run 28th

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                            12Z AUG18
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
FRI 12Z 18-AUG  22.5    16.7    1013      96     100    0.00     585     574    
FRI 18Z 18-AUG  24.5    18.8    1010      92      80    0.27     585     576    
SAT 00Z 19-AUG  23.4    18.5    1009      97      81    0.07     584     576    
SAT 06Z 19-AUG  21.8    17.6    1009      98      45    0.01     583     575    
SAT 12Z 19-AUG  22.0    15.7    1011      94      78    0.00     582     573    
SAT 18Z 19-AUG  27.3    14.5    1010      55      30    0.00     582     574    
SUN 00Z 20-AUG  24.0    16.2    1010      77      66    0.00     580     571    
SUN 06Z 20-AUG  21.1    15.7    1012      86      73    0.00     579     568    
SUN 12Z 20-AUG  20.9    14.2    1016      78      57    0.00     581     568    
SUN 18Z 20-AUG  26.8    14.4    1016      54      22    0.00     584     570    
MON 00Z 21-AUG  23.0    14.0    1018      77      15    0.00     587     571    
MON 06Z 21-AUG  19.0    14.6    1021      83      33    0.00     587     570    
MON 12Z 21-AUG  20.7    14.5    1022      81      36    0.00     589     570    
MON 18Z 21-AUG  28.8    15.1    1020      46      15    0.00     589     572    
TUE 00Z 22-AUG  23.9    16.3    1019      77      13    0.00     590     573    
TUE 06Z 22-AUG  21.1    16.3    1019      89      15    0.00     588     572    
TUE 12Z 22-AUG  22.4    16.9    1018      83      16    0.00     588     572    
TUE 18Z 22-AUG  29.0    18.3    1014      64      49    0.01     587     574    
WED 00Z 23-AUG  24.5    18.0    1011      90      65    0.03     585     575    
WED 06Z 23-AUG  23.7    18.9    1007      93      47    0.00     581     575    
WED 12Z 23-AUG  23.3    17.0    1006      89      70    0.04     579     573    
WED 18Z 23-AUG  27.3    15.5    1006      60      66    0.02     579     573    
THU 00Z 24-AUG  23.2    14.7    1007      73      49    0.00     578     572    
THU 06Z 24-AUG  19.3    14.3    1008      69      70    0.00     575     568    
THU 12Z 24-AUG  19.1    13.0    1010      77      59    0.00     573     564    
THU 18Z 24-AUG  25.5    12.1    1010      46      63    0.00     573     564    
FRI 00Z 25-AUG  20.8    11.8    1012      68      40    0.00     572     561    
FRI 06Z 25-AUG  17.0    10.9    1015      82      59    0.00     572     559    
FRI 12Z 25-AUG  17.0     9.8    1018      79      33    0.00     572     557    
FRI 18Z 25-AUG  23.4     8.8    1018      43      25    0.00     574     558    
SAT 00Z 26-AUG  19.0     9.1    1020      63      11    0.00     574     558    
SAT 06Z 26-AUG  14.6     7.2    1022      75      12    0.00     574     556    
SAT 12Z 26-AUG  15.0     5.7    1024      72      15    0.00     574     554    
SAT 18Z 26-AUG  21.6     7.3    1023      39      25    0.00     574     554    
SUN 00Z 27-AUG  18.1     7.6    1023      55      33    0.00     573     553    
SUN 06Z 27-AUG  15.0     6.2    1024      77      16    0.00     572     552    
SUN 12Z 27-AUG  15.3     5.8    1025      71      19    0.00     572     550    
SUN 18Z 27-AUG  21.5     7.1    1023      39      18    0.00     572     552    
MON 00Z 28-AUG  18.0     7.3    1023      59      32    0.00     572     553    
MON 06Z 28-AUG  14.5     6.7    1023      78      34    0.00     571     552    
MON 12Z 28-AUG  15.3     6.2    1023      75      19    0.00     572     552
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234683 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 18 2017, 06:43 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Amped up. #AccordionJet

Nice deep Cut Off low over PacNW. Seems funny to see Alaska and Northeast U.S in the cool dips. Usually Alaska is warm when the Jet dips in Northeast. I guess it depends and varies at times.

GFS6z for Friday 25th

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234642 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 06:57 PM


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GFS12z AND EuroEPS control12z showing another and deeper airmass in the works dropping into southern Canada September 1st digging down.. blink.gif

#wow
#24-?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234607 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 05:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Euro12z 850mb temps Friday 25th

Attached Image


Saturday 26th

Attached Image


850mb Temp Anomaly Saturday 26th

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234596 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 05:20 PM


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https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/898269461710491648

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234595 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 01:17 PM


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Not in discussion range yet (will starting tomorrow) but there might be some crazy 24-36hr temp differences aloft coming next week.

QUOTE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1000 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Monday-Tuesday...

High pressure builds over the region Monday and shifts offshore
south and east by Tuesday. Cross sections show dry air in place at
most levels through Tuesday evening, so expect dry weather both
days. Increasing mid and high clouds Tuesday ahead of the next
weather system. Temps aloft 14-15C Monday and 15-17C Tuesday,
supporting low-mid 80s Monday and mid to upper 80s Tuesday
.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...

Closed low digs over Quebec and the Northeast USA with shortwave
driving a cold front into/through New England. Expect
showers/scattered tstms with the front Tuesday night/Wednesday
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234577 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 10:27 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


Paulie P blog today regarding the cool down


QUOTE
Thursday, August 17, 2017 4:26:59 AM


Major cooldown, not so much numbers but coverage, between Aug. 22 and 28 from the Plains to the East
Over the last couple of days, I had to make some big changes on day-to-day temperatures between Aug. 22 and 28. This was a period that I anticipated warmer turning to cooler for the eastern half of the nation. However, the cooling will most likely come sooner. The tropics was the reasoning for the timing issues, which I have shouted out several times. Take a look at the difference in afternoon temperatures Aug. 22, 24 and 26. On the 22nd, the East is out ahead of the main cold front. Temperatures can climb into the 90s across the northern Mid Atlantic. However, behind this front, looking at the 24th, temperatures may hold in the 70s in many areas; that becomes about a 15 degree drop-off on average.

Afternoon temperatures around Aug. 22

Attached Image



Afternoon temperatures around Aug. 24


Attached Image



Now look at Aug. 26, the coverage of below normal readings. Again, these are afternoon temperatures. Take notice of the widespread 60s and 70s from the Midwest to the East. This is a big shake-up, but this is really nothing new from what the models were showing. An area from the central Plains to the Appalachians was expected to struggle on temperatures all Summer with more warming over the West, and also eventually over the top through the northern Plains into the Northeast.

Afternoon temperatures around Aug. 26

Attached Image




If you look at the JMA MJO, which is stronger in Phase 2, it suggests widespread cooling for the eastern half of the nation and that is basically what we are seeing during this period. The European is trending this way and the GFS is sliding toward the solution. However, it may not last as positions of upper troughs and highs from the Pacific to North America shift. There can be some warming after this period, consolidating the cool air over the Plains.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234565 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 05:09 PM


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Looks like a Tropical Tidbits map but I dont see an option for this with the 850 anomalies + winds.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/897905146394554371

Attached Image


Edit: actually thats WB, nevermind.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234517 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 04:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 16 2017, 04:33 PM) *
blink.gif

Just looked at 12z Temp anom's - do I have to consider pushing the end date beyond the 26th? unsure.gif


GFS12z min temps Saturday 26th morning. It says multiple nights in the 40s for many but I assume reality will be probably for higher elevations or New England?

Attached Image


Also.... Here I am waiting for those single digits at 850mb and Euro wants to show me 3.9C (39°F) couple thousand feet above my head. LOL (Normal is 13C)

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR LAT= 41.37 LON= -73.48 ELE= 456

12Z AUG16
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
THU 06Z 24-AUG 17.0 11.7 1010 74 5 0.00 574 566
THU 12Z 24-AUG 17.8 10.6 1012 75 24 0.00 572 562
THU 18Z 24-AUG 24.2 10.5 1010 45 26 0.00 571 562
FRI 00Z 25-AUG 20.3 11.0 1011 66 56 0.00 570 560
FRI 06Z 25-AUG 16.4 10.2 1013 80 76 0.00 568 557
FRI 12Z 25-AUG 16.6 8.5 1015 78 88 0.00 566 553
FRI 18Z 25-AUG 20.9 7.8 1015 50 66 0.01 567 554
SAT 00Z 26-AUG 18.1 7.8 1017 62 19 0.00 569 555
SAT 06Z 26-AUG 13.9 5.4 1019 75 11 0.00 570 554
SAT 12Z 26-AUG 14.4 3.9 1021 72 15 0.00 570 552
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234514 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 04:35 PM


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-0.8 on new CFSv2

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/897922926464323584

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234513 · Replies: · Views: 43,300

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 02:44 PM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 16 2017, 03:07 PM) *
Pretty impressive high latitude blocking on that run. If so....-QBO & low solar influence


Check out the Euro12z today vs yesterday for same time frame. It's on it now. Big flip.

Attached Image



And here's the 850mb temp anomalies morning of 24th, 25th, 26th.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234510 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 11:34 AM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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12z GFS today looks deeper than previous runs. Me like.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234504 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 08:20 AM


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00z EuroEPS control has 546 thickness down to Southern Quebec 24th & 25th then down to northern VT 26th & 27th with an ULL over the region. #FootballTaste
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234493 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 07:50 AM


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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 16 2017, 08:27 AM) *
You leave UTS alone! he's having fun. geez. some people.


Lol! I thought I'd be fair since I bug him about the warm threads. tongue.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234492 · Replies: · Views: 2,234

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 06:15 AM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 16 2017, 06:49 AM) *
I don't have Euro surface temp maps but the 850mb view reflects a similar outcome.


Euro00z for next Thurs-Fri shows Max 60s interior, 70s for coastal plain. Lows 40s/50s interior. 50s/60s near coast and south of NYC

The dews will truly make it feel like Fall is they are low enough.

And even tomorrow the 17th there's a taste with dews in the 40s DURING THE DAY.. In Mid August.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/897539328527613952


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NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 06:08 AM


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I saved this discussion from last week, thought it was interesting and glad they pointed it out..

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NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 06:02 AM


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Wow, is this the first time we started a warm / cold thread with a "?" over a week away? lol.

These dips keep continuing and naturally they will get colder each time as we move into the cooler seasons. I cant remember the last 90 I had. And lack of 85+ this summer is noticeable on crops.


Only 1 above normal day in last 11 days here.. The shaded cells are the departure from normal for the max and min. Yet the month is only -0.4 below normal. Thanks to first 4 days of the month. I remember May where just 3-5 days made the whole month above normal.

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Edit: Yesterday was classic example of how clouds keep the day well below normal (Mid 70s) but keep the night above normal (Near 70).

With these troughs all Spring and Summer clouds & precip have been the big theme.
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