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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
NorEaster07
post Today, 10:46 AM
Post #2421




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3 Accu Maps for this weekend and early next week..


Attached File  Map163.jpg ( 420.23K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  Map164.jpg ( 531.27K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  Map165.jpg ( 548.19K ) Number of downloads: 2
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Solstice
post Today, 11:53 AM
Post #2422




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Not sure where to put this, but I guess this is kinda long-range but for a select state.
Sierra Nevada snowpack running very, very low. It's getting worrisome now.

Attached File  Screenshot_2018_01_18_at_11.53.22_AM.png ( 460.9K ) Number of downloads: 0


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Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/15 Night - Snow remains in plow trails. No natural snow left.
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grace
post Today, 12:36 PM
Post #2423




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QUOTE(grace @ Jan 18 2018, 08:25 AM) *
Here's what the EPS showed for the JAN 13-18 period:


Here's what has actually occurred minus today:


Here's what RRWT was showing:


Here was BSR for "around" JAN 16-19


BSR..date says JAN 18 but remember BSR has a 17-21 day verification so dates are not always exact. Point is the 500mb map from yesterday in the U.S. is absolutely a perfect match.


What has been occurring is the models see what will be a brief warm-up or rise in heights & they want to make it a prolonged blowtorch looking pattern but as it draws near they catch on to another +PNA spike & we end up with a 1-2 days warmth followed by cold. BSR/RRWT have not been perfect but they've provided me with red flags when models have shown blowtorch in the LR.



So...not smart to hug a model right now. What model is showing the cold coming to begin FEB that Cliche was showing EAR is showing? I'll answer...NONE OF THEM.

This post has been edited by grace: Today, 12:36 PM
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RobB
post Today, 01:46 PM
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1/18 12Z NAEFS:
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