Nov. 19-23 Plains/MW/GL/OV Storm, Cogitation: Long Range (8-15 Days Out) Forecasts Options

[snowlover2]

Might as well get this started being that it involves Thanksgiving and because the GFS has been showing a storm during this time period for days now. 12z GFS has a low in the GLs meander southeast through the OV even putting down some light snow for the holiday.






72 hour snowfall for the above maps

[xigris14]

I would love that to come south a bit into Missouri so I can get some snow. Just have to watch and wait. Hopefully it continues to stay on the models so someone can get a nice white Thanksgiving.

[HassayWx2306]

every thanksgiving night black friday, I get cold rain or heavy wet snow for a few inches love it any other day of the year but ill take it

[The Snowman]

I put out a post this evening on the possibility of this system, FWIW.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/...likely-for.html

[nkovatch85]

Naturally I have to drive home to Northern Indiana the day before Thanksgiving. Certainly something worth keeping an eye on.

[Juniorrr]

0z and 06z GFS both have a GLC during this period give or take a few days... after the individual ensemble members showed this the past few days

0z NAVY has the beginnings of a storm for the lower plains
0z CMC is interesting with the 500mbs
0z Euro has a weak cutoff west of Texas which may be a sign of a system later...

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Nov 13 2012, 07:25 AM

[Indygirl]

I put out a post this evening on the possibility of this system, FWIW.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/...likely-for.html

I really enjoyed how you took the time to explain everything and break it all down in your forecast. Very nice! I may have to save that write-up for times when I'm not following the discussions here.

Thanks!

[The Snowman]

I wrote up another post on this system today, with the E. Asia correlation and GFS Ensembles now joining forces. Link is below for anyone who wants to see.

Link

[xigris14]

That would be great. Nothing showing up on Accuweather forecast around that time for mid west. Hopefully that change with time. Thank you for taking time to write that.

I wrote up another post on this system today, with the E. Asia correlation and GFS Ensembles now joining forces. Link is below for anyone who wants to see.

Link

[Snow____]

According to accuweather its going to be 60 on Thanksgiving. That means a warm marathon. I'm ready.

This post has been edited by Snow____: Nov 13 2012, 09:23 PM

[cary67]

I wrote up another post on this system today, with the E. Asia correlation and GFS Ensembles now joining forces. Link is below for anyone who wants to see.

Link

Skilling mentions big storm blowing up on the EMCF initially OTS but deepening and retrograding to hit New England around Thanksgiving. Nothing in the Midwest but an end to the mild temps we will see leading up to the holiday. Not to disparage the East Coast posters I know they are the majority on this forum but the pattern seems to be generating noreasters so far and not much activity for the Midwest. Perhaps a continuation of the dry conditions from the summer and early fall for the winter.

This post has been edited by cary67: Nov 14 2012, 06:07 PM

[xigris14]

It does seem like the NE has been geeting storm after storm while the mid west just blahh. Hopefully we can get in on some of the fun soon. Its hard to watch the NE with all these big coastal storms, Im jealous but happy they are getting snow rather then last years when we all were dissapointed.

Skilling mentions big storm blowing up on the EMCF initially OTS but deepening and retrograding to hit New England around Thanksgiving. Nothing in the Midwest but an end to the mild temps we will see leading up to the holiday. Not to disparage the East Coast posters I know they are the majority on this forum but the pattern seems to generating noreasters so far and not much activity for the Midwest. Perhaps a continuation of the dry conditions from the summer and early fall for the winter.

This post has been edited by xigris14: Nov 14 2012, 12:07 PM

[Juniorrr]

0z NAVY & CMC show a plains storm (cutter)
0z & 06z GFS both show an upper GLC and following that, a strong inland and/or coastal storm for EC
0z Euro has a system starting in the plains @ hr240 but not much as the 500mb setup doesn't look like much


The potential for a storm late Nov looks nice whether it be a coastal or cutter idk

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Nov 15 2012, 07:26 AM

[jdrenken]

0z NAVY & CMC show a plains storm (cutter)
0z & 06z GFS both show an upper GLC and following that, a strong inland and/or coastal storm for EC
0z Euro has a system starting in the plains @ hr240 but not much as the 500mb setup doesn't look like much
The potential for a storm late Nov looks nice whether it be a coastal or cutter idk

I agree.

[xigris14]

Here in STL my forecast in in the mid 60's for the 19-23. Is that pretty much a given now? Or is there still the possiblity that these increased temps dont come to fruition?
thanks

I agree.

[jdrenken]

Here in STL my forecast in in the mid 60's for the 19-23. Is that pretty much a given now? Or is there still the possiblity that these increased temps dont come to fruition?
thanks

Yes. The warmth is progged correctly. Check out my post in the Fall thread showing Skilling's latest for Chicago.