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> April 12-14 Plains/MW/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Day 1 Moderate Risk: Forecasts and OBS
snowlover2
post Apr 13 2018, 12:47 PM
Post #81




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Tornado watch going to be issued in the next couple hours in the moderate risk and they are considering making it a PDS.

Attached Image

QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northwest LA...Central and Southern
AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131741Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorm activity over southeast OK and
northeast TX may become rooted in the boundary layer by mid
afternoon. This will increase the risk of intense storms capable of
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. A tornado watch will be
needed later today.

DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery shows a band of elevated
convection extending from Pushmataha/Choctaw counties OK southward
into Kaufman/Navarro counties TX. Some increase in intensity has
been noted in the past hour, although activity remains sub-severe.
A substantial capping inversion was in place over this region at
12z, but the 18z FWD/LZK soundings indicate rapid cooling at the
base of the EML and a diminishing cap. Given current trends, the
thunderstorm activity may become surface-based in the next couple of
hours.

Strong low-level wind fields will remain in place ahead of the
convection, and may increase through early evening. Local VAD
profiles already show 0-3 km SRH values of 300-400 m2/s2 with
forecast soundings suggesting values over 500 m2/s2 this evening.
Assuming activity can remain semi-discrete, a few intense supercells
are likely to evolve. Parameters appear favorable for the risk of
strong tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging winds. PDS
wording is being considered in the tornado watch for this region.


..Hart.. 04/13/2018


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Apr 13 2018, 12:49 PM
Post #82




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Another tornado watch likely west of the possible PDS.

Attached Image
QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...north central Texas through eastern
Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri and northwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131739Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop early to mid
afternoon from north central Texas through east Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas posing a risk for very large hail, damaging wind
and a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows boundary-layer cumulus
increasing along sharpening dryline and dryline/cold front merger
from southeast KS through central OK and north central TX. Cloud
breaks and low-level theta-e advection is promoting destabilization,
and objective analysis shows a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in
warm sector. The atmosphere still appears capped by an inversion
located around 800 mb associated with warm air at the base of the
elevated mixed layer. However deep ascent with a lead shortwave
trough continues to act on this layer, and should eventually erode
the inversion such that surface-based storms will initiate along the
dryline during the next couple hours. The 18Z Fort Worth RAOB showed
substantial cooling in the capping layer compared to the 12Z. While
deep-layer shear is very strong (50-55 kt), VWP data continues to
indicate veer-back-veer characteristics, possibly due to the effects
of the lead shortwave trough. Low-level hodographs are initially
large with current 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 250+ m2/s2.
However, some decrease in 0-1 km hodograph size should occur as the
low-level jet shifts east. Nevertheless, the overall environment is
supportive of supercells and bowing segments capable of very large
hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes this afternoon.

..Dial/Hart.. 04/13/2018


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Apr 13 2018, 01:02 PM
Post #83




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No real change on new day 2.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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joseph507123
post Apr 13 2018, 01:04 PM
Post #84




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Snow and severe storm anyone?
Attached Image


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 14

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 13 2018, 01:07 PM
Post #85




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Already 25 storm reports from the warm front activity. Usually a decent indicator of what's to come.

Also, watch for what happens later today near the warm front because usually if there's some tornado reports on day 1 with the warm front, there's gonna be some threat of it for day 2... though usually diminished.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 13 2018, 01:08 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 13 2018, 01:24 PM
Post #86




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Per mesoanalysis, I see a significant VBV profile between 700mb and 500mb. That's a problem.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Apr 13 2018, 01:26 PM
Post #87




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From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





First tornado watch up with storms popping in central OK.

Attached Image

QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 39
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri
Eastern Oklahoma
North central Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms developing along and ahead of the dryline are
expected to intensify and evolve into supercells capable of very
large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Chanute KS
to 20 miles east southeast of Waco TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Dial


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 13 2018, 01:54 PM
Post #88




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Well, there's the PDS watch. Hope they're not wrong because people notice this stuff, but also hope it busts because this is a serious situation.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 13 2018, 01:56 PM
Post #89




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Posts: 22,674
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





VBV confirmed on Shreveport and Little Rock soundings




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Apr 13 2018, 02:00 PM
Post #90




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Posts: 18,799
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From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





PDS watch up.

Attached Image
QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 40
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Much of Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana
Southeast Oklahoma
Northeast Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to track across the
watch area this afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of
tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. Strong tornadoes are
possible. Multiple rounds of severe storms are expected across this
region.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 70 miles south of Longview TX to 20
miles northeast of Flippin AR. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Apr 13 2018, 02:27 PM
Post #91




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New tornado watch for IA/MO/KS.

Attached Image

QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 41
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Iowa
Northeast Kansas
Northwest Missouri
Southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over eastern Kansas will track
northeastward across the watch area, while other isolated cells form
over IA/northern MO. Supercells capable of large hail and a few
tornadoes are expected.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Knoxville IA
to 60 miles south southwest of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...WW 40...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.

...Hart


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Apr 13 2018, 02:32 PM
Post #92




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First tornado warning of possibly many.

QUOTE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
226 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northern Seminole County in east central Oklahoma...

* Until 315 PM CDT

* At 225 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Seminole, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Seminole, Cromwell and Little.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 204 and 213.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Apr 13 2018, 06:22 PM
Post #93




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Several tornado warnings from S MO to W AR.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 14 2018, 02:05 AM
Post #94




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Well, VBV won. Frustrating that they didn't see the red flags.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 14 2018, 02:13 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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twistingtornado
post Apr 14 2018, 04:45 AM
Post #95




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I know I haven't posted in over a year, but I've been keeping up with these severe outbreaks just the same. Today the SPC made me angry, however. mad.gif

The VBV in the 2-3 km layer (sometimes just above 3 km in the ArkLaTex region) I was seeing on Wednesday night into Friday was a major red flag, and it was consistently showing up in the NAM/GFS. The forecasters at the SPC are taking the results of Matt Parker's study and applying it to too wide of a spectrum of thermodynamic and wind profiles. In experience, VBV is quite important, especially in the lowest 3 km layer. In Matt Parker's study, only 1 thermodynamic profile was used (a composite thermodynamic sounding from VORTEX2 tornadic supercells) and 9 different idealized hodographs were used. Of those, only one "fish hook" hodograph had backing in the lowest 3 km layer. That was the only CM1 simulation that failed to produce a discrete supercell. Parker attributed it to the storm motion falling on top of the hodograph, causing the SRH value to be very low. I'd still like to see more simulations with VBV in the lowest 3 km layer with varying hodograph types.

My biggest concern about Parker's study is it's only been applied to 1 thermodynamic sounding. It's bad science to assume it's widely applicable to all thermodynamic soundings. If it's being done just because he uses a composite thermodynamic sounding from VORTEX2 tornadic supercells, that's just asinine.

Some people are already starting to believe VBV isn't important based on some of his findings that the nonlinear dynamic effect overcomes the negatively-affected linear dynamic effect with regard to updraft strength. The vertical pressure perturbation gradient force (VPPGF) is stronger in the VBV case above 3 km, thus making the updraft stronger...but then my train of their thought process breaks off, because tornadogenesis is more complicated than just a strong updraft.

Another thing is Parker's study hasn't yet investigated (that I know of, I haven't found access to the full paper yet) if the VBV profile is a symptom of a sub-optimal synoptic sitatuion (CAA or an oddly-structured wave). Really, making any conclusion that our "anecdotal evidence" as storm chasers is wrong based on this study means the scientific method is being ignored. The study is very much incomplete as it stands.

Ok, sorry for the long rant. It's just that I'm frustrated that the SPC is treating the PDS tornado watch so poorly, and I'm concerned it will lead to people not caring about it's wording until a very bad event happens again. Couple that with the community making conclusions about a not-completely-understood phenomena that needs further investigative studies to make more thorough conclusions, and I'm starting to pull out what's left of my hair.

This post has been edited by twistingtornado: Apr 14 2018, 04:49 AM
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PGM
post Apr 14 2018, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(twistingtornado @ Apr 14 2018, 05:45 AM) *
I know I haven't posted in over a year, but I've been keeping up with these severe outbreaks just the same. Today the SPC made me angry, however. mad.gif


Yeah no kidding. The system doesn't work any more, and the SPC forecasts simply aren't hitting target.
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snowlover2
post Apr 14 2018, 04:17 PM
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Yep, 2nd moderate risk in 10 days and both failed pretty miserably.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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melissa from ill...
post Apr 14 2018, 05:43 PM
Post #98




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Apr 14 2018, 04:17 PM) *
Yep, 2nd moderate risk in 10 days and both failed pretty miserably.


This makes playin our game a little rough. NO ONE got points for yesterday. They are setting up a dangerous scenario where people arent gonna pay attention to the watches.


--------------------
"Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, its a TWISTER its a TWISTER!"
"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 15 2018, 10:58 AM
Post #99




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Look at the epic bust... severe reports all around the moderate risk, only a few in it.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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RobB
post Apr 15 2018, 11:13 AM
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Posts: 43,057
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 15 2018, 11:58 AM) *
Look at the epic bust... severe reports all around the moderate risk, only a few in it.



Funny how that works. Just extend the moderate area out 40 miles in diameter then boom, it looks good. Is a bust, I guess, but not too far off from being right. Funny how bullseyes in weather potential so often don't turn out..At least we remember those more. Psychological fun and games smile.gif
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