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> Jan 14-16 East EXTREME Cold Outbreak, -51 In Maine Friday! -22 In PA Saturday!
Removed_Member_BaltimoreWeatherguy21_*
post Jan 8 2009, 12:09 AM
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GFS shows extremely cold temps for the middle/end of next week.

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weatherdude64
post Jan 8 2009, 02:05 AM
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QUOTE(BaltimoreWeatherguy21 @ Jan 8 2009, 01:09 AM) *
GFS shows extremely cold temps for the middle/end of next week.

I like snow minus the cold air! Yuck!
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WeatherMatrix
post Jan 8 2009, 07:20 AM
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You guys just beat me to it, tongue.gif I was going to start this thread after I saw my AccuWeather.com forecast last night (for those of you who don't live around here, our normals are about 19/33 this time of year)

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And I read a comment on an AccuWeather.com headline last night that said NYC could approach zero next week. Our official forecast is calling for 13 as the minimum next week, as of this morning, but their normal low is 27! blink.gif


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wxdude1964
post Jan 8 2009, 08:08 AM
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Accuweather calling for 26/11 for me with a little snow on Jan 14th, normals 41/21. Its cold but not record breaking.

This post has been edited by wxdude1964: Jan 8 2009, 08:08 AM


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Snowfall 2007-2008 season-11.4 inches
Snowfall 2008-2009 season-13.1 inches
Snowfall 2009-2010 season-68.6 inches
Snowfall 2010-2011 season-19.5 inches
Snowfall 2011-2012 season-16.5 inches.
Snowfall 2012-2013 season-25.9 inches.
Snowfall 2013-2014 season-41.1 inches.
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snowmonster123
post Jan 8 2009, 09:34 AM
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I like this pattern because the western end of that trough looks like it will bring storms and hopefully some snow to St. Louis. Man you guys in the east better bundle up in those heavy coats and stay warm and well. That is usually the weather that we get hear in St. Louis around mid to late January. Even though I like the cold it gets on my nerves after a few days when their is no snow and constant temps around in the teens and single digits. Once again I hope you guys stay well.


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Bellhorn12
post Jan 8 2009, 09:53 AM
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Fairbanks and much of central Alaska haven't moved from 40-50 below F in the last week. One station in East Central Alaska came in at -64 F.

My forecast for the morning of the 15th is -4 F.


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Dec 9th - 1.0"
Dec 11th - 1.0"
Dec 14th - 9.0"
Dec 17th - 7.5"
Jan 2-3rd - 20.0"
Jan 18th - 4.0"
Jan 22nd - 2.0"
Feb 3rd - 1.0"
Feb 5th - 12.0"
Feb 13th - 8.5"
Feb 15th - 4.0"
Feb 18th - 7.0"
Mar 12th - 2.0"

Season = 79.0"

Note; 17 days since Dec 1 with sub 5 F minimum daily temperature.

Winter, 2012-2013, Snowfall - 71"
Winter, 2011-2012, Snowfall - 9.5"
Winter, 2010-2011, Snowfall - 89.5"
Winter, 2009-2010, Snowfall - 40"
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snowmonster123
post Jan 8 2009, 10:08 AM
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QUOTE(Bellhorn12 @ Jan 8 2009, 11:53 AM) *
Fairbanks and much of central Alaska haven't moved from 40-50 below F in the last week. One station in East Central Alaska came in at -64 F.

My forecast for the morning of the 15th is -4 F.


And they call this global warming? laugh.gif


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WeatherMatrix
post Jan 9 2009, 10:09 AM
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The GFS model is showing incredible, historic temperatures for next week, including:

-13 F In New York City
-37 Or Below In Pennsylvania


On my blog I have a more in-depth discussion and maps including:

- Why you should probably not believe the model's prediction
- How this factors into New York City's history


Here are some highlights:

QUOTE
I can tell you without even looking at historical data that a -13 degree reading would be "historic" in the Big Apple. If you do look at their history, you find that -15 was the lowest they have been there since 1869. Now, there are a few things to consider here, before we freak out.

1. The graph about is a "point and click" model forecast. If you run the numbers from the "MOS" ("Model Output Statistics") program, which refines the forecast, you come out with -20.6 C or -5 F:

2. The model is attempting to predict a forecast at 8 days out, and the GFS does have a cold bias in its longer range, so it's likely it would moderate between now and then.

3. The model could be underestimating the "heat island effect" of New York City.

Negative 5 is still impressive, but let's assume even the MOS is 5 degrees too cold and call it 0. Given all that, then the question becomes, when was the last time it was below zero in New York City? The answer, according to the National Weather Service, is 1994. Before that, you have to go back to 1948 to find a reading below -2.


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the iceman
post Jan 9 2009, 12:02 PM
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Doesn't look that bad up here for that stretch. Forecast has us at -12f for a couple of nights but looks like each night is overcast, snow showers so that is probably what is keeping the temps higher.

http://www.accuweather.com/us/nh/littleton...&traveler=0

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WBwxwatcher92
post Jan 9 2009, 04:54 PM
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WBRE has a forecast high for W-B next Friday of 6!


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Winter storm grades:
12/26-27: F; shafted big-time
1/11: C+; kind of shafted, but decent snowfall
1/26: F; wrong side of a major cutoff again

Winter grade so far: D
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AnthonyS
post Jan 10 2009, 11:55 AM
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Incredible cold depicted by 12Z GFS for KABE. Thickness down to 490!!!



Anthony


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I-95blizzard
post Jan 10 2009, 01:31 PM
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GFS has a high of -2 for Friday blink.gif

That would shatter all records.


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Niyologist
post Jan 10 2009, 03:45 PM
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I'm speechless........ blink.gif


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reedzone
post Jan 10 2009, 09:11 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Jan 10 2009, 04:45 PM) *
I'm speechless........ blink.gif


Can somebody please explain to me why my accuweather forecast in Palm Coast, FLORIDA shows snow flurries, 54 degrees for the last day? I know it's not accurate right now, but interesting. It also shows heavy rain with a 30 degree tempurature lol on another night. I have a feeling snow will make a nice surprise here.

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BtownWxWatcher
post Jan 10 2009, 09:24 PM
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First map
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WBwxwatcher92
post Jan 11 2009, 10:19 AM
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Cold shot is quickly becoming less impressive.


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Winter storm grades:
12/26-27: F; shafted big-time
1/11: C+; kind of shafted, but decent snowfall
1/26: F; wrong side of a major cutoff again

Winter grade so far: D
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steve04074
post Jan 11 2009, 02:04 PM
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QUOTE(WBwxwatcher92 @ Jan 11 2009, 11:19 AM) *
Cold shot is quickly becoming less impressive.

yup-- here in Portland, Maine? maybe -10F Friday or Saturday morning, which historically is extremely UNimpressive..... heck, in an "average" winter over the past 40 years, Portland could expect to bottom out at about -14F.... These predicted temps don't come anywhere CLOSE to record low temps.

You know... we had 3-- yes, THREE-- record HIGH temps in Dec. '08 here, yet barely a word is spoken about them in the MSM or at AccuWeather...... we haven't had a record low in YEARS... literally........
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yankees
post Jan 11 2009, 02:12 PM
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Must be an error but in thought it was funny my forcast for sunday is -80

Sunday: Cold, with a high near -80

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?l...nit=0&lg=en


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11/26- 6 Inches
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Superstorm93
post Jan 11 2009, 02:15 PM
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I hope this is a typo....


Sunday: Cold, with a high near -80.

SOURCE

This post has been edited by Superstorm93: Jan 11 2009, 02:17 PM


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Superstorm93
post Jan 11 2009, 02:15 PM
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QUOTE(WBwxwatcher92 @ Jan 11 2009, 11:19 AM) *
Cold shot is quickly becoming less impressive.



Story of this winter....


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