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> Major Storm For Ontario Near Months End?, (Jan 29th-30th)
travis3000
post Jan 21 2009, 01:08 PM
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I have been consistently watching for a large winter storm for the end of January. Models have very reliably shown a large low pressure system slamming into Southern Ontario near the end of the month. In fact, the GFS has been showing this storm for 4-5 days now as has the EURO. This storm will bring in ample warm air but the question is whether or not the cold air can hold its ground enough to allow a huge snowstorm for Southern Ontario. Let this thread be used to monitoring this storm as well as posting recent model runs and discussing its potential. I believe this storm could be very large. I have attached here the recent 12pm model runs from the GFS. It basically shows rain for SW Ontario, a mix for the GTA with snow to the north. Now this is only one run, although other previous runs have shown some similar findings. Regardless, it is certainly something to watch for. This storm will start a domino pattern of storms through February as a "La Nina" pattern kicks in, similar to the one in late November and December.

Here is the recent GFS's interpretation of the storm:

Attached File  gfs_ten_204m.gif ( 78.39K ) Number of downloads: 22

Attached File  gfs_ten_216m.gif ( 80.54K ) Number of downloads: 14




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Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Jan 21 2009, 03:22 PM
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This storm is stilll over a week away. But it is impressive.
Totals and where the precip mixing line is stil to far to tell, but if this is a Snowstorm i would say right now 20-30cm. The 27-29 storm, is now lost in the models, just like wat happend with this storm that was gona come from the 23-25. I hope the models dont lose this one.
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theyoungweatherm...
post Jan 21 2009, 06:25 PM
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The mean block of high pressure is pushing the last few storms south. I don't think that blok of high pressure is gonna last long, as a pattern change is expected starting this time period.



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hockeynut
post Jan 21 2009, 07:17 PM
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brett says that we might get a worm up the first week in feb. does any one think that is going to happen and if so how worm is it going to get???

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snowball
post Jan 21 2009, 09:30 PM
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I will say this...

We are WELL overdue for a Texas low to come up and swamp us with 20-30, if not more.

Have we even got one of these potent storms yet this season? I remember last Winter that's all it was.

Those model pics look potent as heck.

Can I ask what you guys are using for GFS modelling that far out? The site I has doesn't go that far out for some reason.
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travis3000
post Jan 21 2009, 10:59 PM
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Recent GFS shifts storm north bringing snow quickly changing to rain. Rain heavy at times for all of Southern Ontario with heavy snow in Cottage Country and Northern Ontario (Parry Sound/North Bay/Sudbury/Sault St. Marie, etc) The key is that the GFS continues to show a very potent storm during this time frame. We just have to hope the cold air either comes in stronger then models are predicting or it sticks around longer. More on this tomorrow...


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theyoungweatherm...
post Jan 22 2009, 06:20 PM
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and the last two runs show all snow...

I'm not even gonna care about the flip flop as long as the storm still exist.


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sumdude86
post Jan 23 2009, 02:10 PM
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Henry has all of SW Ontario in the area for where snow is possible for next week's potential storm
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travis3000
post Jan 23 2009, 02:55 PM
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The models have shifted since yesterday and the day before. Both last nights Midnight model of the GFS along with the 6am, and Noon model don't show a large storm cutting into the lakes anymore. Instead it shows a clipper coming through and merging with a low which will come up the coast of the Atlantic. Henry is referring to 2 other storms one earlier next week and another midweek which COULD bring some light to moderate snows for extreme SW Ontario. Next week will see a few systems pass from West to East although they will be unusually south making the chances of S. Ontario getting snow very low. I'm still curious about the storm next Friday, I'm hoping models will flip back to a storm cutting into the lakes with just enough cold air to support a decent snowstorm. It does appear more unlikely now however.


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stormchaser22
post Jan 24 2009, 12:39 AM
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Any one else getting this insane snowsquall of georgian bay!!! i've never seen snow come down this hard we already have 10 cm i cant go to bed the snow is just to hypnotizing!
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players1
post Jan 24 2009, 07:12 AM
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QUOTE(stormchaser22 @ Jan 24 2009, 01:39 AM) *
Any one else getting this insane snowsquall of georgian bay!!! i've never seen snow come down this hard we already have 10 cm i cant go to bed the snow is just to hypnotizing!

I to was in that squall last night and its still snowing this morning just not as hard. Shovelled the drive AGAIN!!! and it was 12 cms. from last night after i shovelled before i went to bed!!!

LOVING THE SNOW!!!! hating the shovelling every day.....day after day!!!
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sumdude86
post Jan 24 2009, 01:27 PM
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I had a Squall come off Lake Huron earlier today it snowed pretty heavily for a time. Ended up with about 5 cm of snow before it stopped.
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Jody
post Jan 24 2009, 05:17 PM
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Yeah, Samdude, that was something to drive through. My house was in sushine, and as I drove through St. Thomas to Mt. Brydges, it was snow all the way down the 402.
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theyoungweatherm...
post Jan 25 2009, 10:09 AM
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First Snowfall map, details later
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Jan_27_30_Winter_Storm_Forecast.gif ( 28.68K ) Number of downloads: 6
 


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post Jan 25 2009, 10:17 AM
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This storm is big. I agree with youngweatherman this has the potential to be over 6 inches ot 15cm. The models are still in disgreement, on where the low wil be. Right now 10-15cm and it looks like it will come by Wednesday. Here is the GFS model data. Gem model is saying 20 +cm of snowfall, and gfs is saying 5-10cm.



Attached File(s)
Attached File  gfs.jpg ( 142.44K ) Number of downloads: 9
 
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post Jan 25 2009, 10:18 AM
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You can rely pick out the Comma, and the Center of the Low
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theyoungweatherm...
post Jan 25 2009, 10:36 AM
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QUOTE
First of all, happy Chinese New Year to whom who celebrate it!

After Long period of quiet, the weather is finally stirring up again. What we have now is a slow and powerful, but a tricky winter storm to forecast.

This storm will be a tad difficult to explain but I will try my best

Originally 3-4 days ago, the GFS and Euro had a storm cutting the great lakes, giving mixing to most of Southern Ontario around the 29-30th. However, the last two days, the GFS had this system suppressed so much south that even major northeast cities misses this storm.

When the GGEM got into range, it had a complete different solution. It shows the main low cutting right up along the Southern great lakes, giving a significant winter storm to us. The GFS and the Euro now also is starting to trend this way. Instead of a storm coming around the we now have a huge bulk of moisture trapped under starting tommorow and will slowly move its way up. There is still so much disagreement with the models in terms of everything from the time frame, temperature and the track that it is best to wait it out to see how exacly things play out.

What makes this so difficult to forecast is the high pressure up in our area which is blocking this system from moving up. When, how and where these high pressures break down will be the key to how this system will turn out and that is exactly why there is so much disagreement right now. The map above demonstrate the two possible tracks this low can take depending on the change of the high pressure. The time also is key. There is actual two swath of moistures. The frontal moisture shown by the GFS and the moisture at the back along with the low shown by the GGEM. Both of these moiture bands are also key things to watch as this storm develops.

If this storm were to move in, this will be a classic big winter storm. It has the typical comma form and the fronts at the right place. Which means we are in for a very organized winter storm which typically brings 15-25cm with higher amounts possible.

The forecast snowfall map is what I think is gonna eventually happen, for the models disagreeing so much, I actual have some decent confidence in this map. Warning map with watches should be out tommorow.

this one is a very interest beast to watch and develope

Attached File(s)
Attached File  Storm_Dynamcis.gif ( 29.38K ) Number of downloads: 4
 


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Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Jan 25 2009, 10:46 AM
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Nice map

Yea! The models are way off in Dissagreement. Nam doesnt even show alot of mositure, and no where near us. (Outlier). The high pressure is moderatly strong, but the lows looks stronger, i think there could some sort of snowfall mid week. And i was looking over the long range, near the first weekend of Feb, there could be a warmup, before a cool down, and there could be low which could come after the 6-7th which could track north and give us only rain or track south and give us Snow. Way to far out but soon or later the models will come in disagree ment for that. But les talk bout this storm.
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theyoungweatherm...
post Jan 25 2009, 10:52 AM
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next two runs of Euro and GGEM and the next four runs of GFS should be watched. You can basically toss NAM out of the picture cause it is too unreliable.


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akula
post Jan 25 2009, 12:27 PM
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this storm has been trending north with every model run. i'm calling for 6-8" , possibly more for most of southern ontario
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