 FAQ: Forecast Model Run Schedule, What Time Do Models Come Out? |
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 Dec 9 2008, 10:30 AM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: SuperModerator Posts: 10,177 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Nashua, New Hampshire Member No.: 11,976  |
This is a description of the models available on AccuWeather.com Professional:
Regional Forecast Models (North America) AccuModel: A 10-day surface forecast database tweaked 24/7 by AccuWeather meteorologists. COAMPS: The short-range Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System model. DGEX: Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension: A high-res ETA model initialized with GFS data; hours 78-192. GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's tropical weather model. NAM (WRF-NMM): The primary short-term weather forecast model for the United States, formerly the ETA model. NAM-215: A high resolution (20 km) version of the North American Model. NAM Ensembles: Ensembles from the NAM, formerly included in SREF. NDFD: The National Weather Service's surface forecast database. NDGD: A high resolution (5 km) grid of GFS-based MOS guidance forecasting surface weather. NGM: The original "Nested Grid Model" -- a short-range forecast model for the U.S. RSM Ensembles: Ensembles from the Regional Spectral Model, formerly included in SREF. RUC2: The very short-range (12 hour) but high-resolution (20 km) Rapid Update Cycle model. WRF : The Weather Research & Forecasting model, a regional mesoscale numerical weather prediction system. WRF Ensembles: Ensembles from the WRF, formerly included in SREF. Global Forecast Models: CFS: The Climate Forecast System, a 9-Month monthly forecast model. CMC: The Canadian Meteorlogical Center's worldwide short-range model. ECMWF: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' medium-range worldwide model. GFS: The Global Forecasting System model is the primary long-range forecasting tool. Formerly known as the AVN or MRF. GFS Ensembles: Ensembles from the GFS model including Spaghetti Plots, Means and Spreads. JMA: The Japan Meteorological Agency's worldwide medium-range model. NAEFS: Ensembles generated with data from the Canadian Meteorlogical Center's worldwide medium-range model. NOGAPS: The U.S. Navy's worldwide medium-range forecast model. UKMET: The United Kingdom Meteorological Centre's worldwide medium-range forecast modle. WaveWatch III: A worldwide ocean model predicting winds and waves. NCEP model schedule --------------------  |
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| Removed_Member_wfreeck_* |
 Jan 24 2009, 06:59 PM
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#2
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Guests |
All the times are EST and approximate.
GFS *00z = 11:30 PM *12z = 12:30 AM GEFS (GFS Ensembles) *00z = 12:45 PM *12z = 12:45 AM NAM *00z = 9:30 PM *12z = 9:30 AM UKMET *00z = 2:00 AM *12z = 2:00 PM Canadian GGEM (sooner if you go directly to their sight) *00z = 2:00 AM *12z = 2:00 PM Canadian GGEM Ensembles *00z = 4:45 AM *12z = 4:45 PM ECMWF (sooner if you go directly to their sight) *00z = 3:20 AM *12z = 3:20 PM NOGAPS *00z = 2:00 AM *12z = 2:00 PM DGEX *00z = 5:15 AM *12z = 5:15 PM JMA *00z = Between 1:00 & 3:00 AM *12z = Between 1:00 & 3:00 PM This post has been edited by wfreeck: Apr 4 2009, 08:13 AM |
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Jan 24 2009, 07:05 PM
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#3
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 543 Joined: 10-January 09 From: Eastern Kentucky Member No.: 16,857 |
Thanks, a few of these I didnt know.
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Jan 25 2009, 09:08 AM
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#4
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 Admin Group: Administrator Posts: 7,108 Joined: 6-March 05 From: State College, PA Member No.: 2 |
QUOTE(wfreeck @ Jan 24 2009, 07:59 PM)  All the times are EST Although this is a good general schedule, the reality is that the models come out at different times each run, due to... 1. How long it takes the model to run at NCEP/whereever 2. How long it takes them to make the files available to the public 3. How long it takes your provider (including NCEP) to pick up the data and produce graphics from it. As noted above, below is a link to the NCEP site stating the current model times, which takes care of #1 & #2. If you are using AccuWeather.com Pro, you can refer to the model page there (link below) which lists the progress of each run - you'll see "COMPLETED" when the model is done and "PROCESSING" when it's processing. It will look something like this. - NCEP Current Model Times (Z) - Bookmark This Page! - AccuWeather.com Pro Current Model Times (Z) - Pro Users Only -------------------- -- Jesse Ferrell, FORUM ADMIN & MODERATOR
-- AccuWeather.com Meteorologist / Social Media Coordinator -- My Blog | My Facebook Page  HELPFUL LINKS: MODEL FAQ / WEATHER QUESTIONS | FORUM FAQ / QUESTIONS STAY ON TOPIC! TALK ABOUT PAST STORMS | TALK ABOUT NON-WEATHER STUFF |
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Jan 31 2009, 05:22 PM
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#5
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 3,910 Joined: 20-January 08 From: Bally, Pa (Berks Co) Member No.: 12,780 |
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| Removed_Member_wfreeck_* |
Apr 4 2009, 08:19 AM
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#6
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QUOTE(WeatherMatrix @ Jan 25 2009, 11:08 AM) Although this is a good general schedule, the reality is that the models come out at different times each run, due to... As noted above, below is a link to the NCEP site stating the current model times, which takes care of #1 & #2. If you are using AccuWeather.com Pro, you can refer to the model page there (link below) which lists the progress of each run - you'll see "COMPLETED" when the model is done and "PROCESSING" when it's processing. It will look something like this. - NCEP Current Model Times (Z) - Bookmark This Page! - AccuWeather.com Pro Current Model Times (Z) - Pro Users Only Yep, that's why all the times are approximate.  |
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Jul 15 2009, 02:08 PM
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#7
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Rank: Whirlwind Group: Member Posts: 13 Joined: 15-July 09 Member No.: 18,655 |
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Jul 16 2009, 11:47 PM
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#8
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,208 Joined: 18-February 08 From: Lehigh Valley, PA Member No.: 13,770 |
QUOTE(wfreeck @ Jan 24 2009, 08:59 PM) All the times are EST and approximate. GFS *00z = 11:25 PM-12:45 AM *12z = 11:25 AM-12:45 PM GEFS (GFS Ensembles) *00z = 11:45 PM-12:45 PM *12z = 11:45 AM-12:45 AM NAM *00z = 9:40 PM-10:40 PM *12z = 9:40 AM-10:40 AM UKMET *00z = 11:30 PM (to 72)-2:30 AM (to 144) *12z = 11:30 AM (to 72)-2:30 PM (to 144) Canadian GGEM *00z = 11:00 PM-12:30 AM *12z = 11:00 AM-12:30 PM Canadian GGEM Ensembles *00z = 3:45 AM *12z = 3:45 PM ECMWF (sooner if you go directly to their sight) *00z = 12:50 AM (for paying subscribers)-2:00 AM (for the public) *12z = 12:50 PM (for paying subscribers)-2:00 PM (for the public) NOGAPS *00z = 11:30 PM-12:30 AM *12z = 11:30 AM-12:30 PM DGEX *00z = 4:15 AM-5:15 AM *12z = 4:15 PM-5:15 PM JMA *00z = 1:00 AM-3:00 AM *12z = 1:00 PM-3:00 PM Some models update faster on other sites, so I'm editing this...links to each fast update model are in the links thread (or will be soon). -------------------- Lead forecaster for Foot's Forecast SE PA Team
Follow my forecasts for eastern PA on Twitter and Facebook |
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Nov 1 2009, 12:11 PM
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#9
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,494 Joined: 3-November 08 From: Perry Hall,MD Member No.: 16,078 |
Since we are back to Standard Time, here are the times the models come out. [all times are approximate]
GFS 0z: 10:30pm 6z: 4:30am 12z: 10:30am 18z: 4:30pm NAM 0z: 8:35pm 6z: 2:35am 12z: 8:35am 18z: 2:35pm GGEM 0z: 12:00am 12z : 12:00pm UKMET 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm ECM 0z: 1:30am 12z: 1:30pm -------------------- No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
I be on facebook a lot lol Summers a skorcher, don't let it continue, 105 BWI 7/6/10 FTW Winter 2010-2011:Moderate/Strong La Nina? Stay Tuned -PDO/Global Cooling on the way? http://wxunleashed.blogspot.com/ |
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Nov 1 2009, 05:29 PM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 34,724 Joined: 14-February 08 From: The 630 Member No.: 13,697 |
QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Nov 1 2009, 11:11 AM) Since we are back to Standard Time, here are the times the models come out. [all times are approximate] GFS 0z: 10:30pm 6z: 4:30am 12z: 10:30am 18z: 4:30pm NAM 0z: 8:35pm 6z: 2:35am 12z: 8:35am 18z: 2:35pm GGEM 0z: 12:00am 12z : 12:00pm UKMET 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm ECM 0z: 1:30am 12z: 1:30pm Note, these times are all in EDT. |
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Mar 14 2010, 10:46 AM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,494 Joined: 3-November 08 From: Perry Hall,MD Member No.: 16,078 |
New model times with the change to DST, times vary on site, these are the earliest times.
00z GFS:~11:30pm 06z GFS:~5:30am 12z GFS:~11:30am 18z GFS:~5:30pm 00z GFS Ensemble Means:~12:45am 06z GFS Ensemble Means:~6:45am 12z GFS Ensemble Means:~12:45pm 18z GFS Ensemble Means:~6:45pm 00z NAM:~9:40pm 06z NAM:~3:40am 12z NAM:~9:40am 18z NAM:~3:40pm 03z SREF:~3:20am 09z SREF:~9:20am 15z SREF:~3:20pm 21z SREF:~9:30pm [yeah, I know it comes out a little later] 06z DGEX:~5:20am 18z DGEX:~5:20pm 00z GGEM:~12:15am 12z GGEM:~12:15pm 00z GGEM Ensemble Means:~4:45am 12z GGEM Ensemble Means:~4:45pm 00z RGEM:~11:15pm 06z RGEM:~5:15am 12z RGEM:~11:15am 18z RGEM:~5:15pm 00z UKMET:~12:00am 12z UKMET:~12:00pm 00z NOGAPS:~12:30am 12z NOGAPS:~12:30pm 00z JMA:~1:30am 12z JMA:~1:30pm 00z ECMWF:~2:00am 12z ECMWF:~2:00pm -------------------- No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
I be on facebook a lot lol Summers a skorcher, don't let it continue, 105 BWI 7/6/10 FTW Winter 2010-2011:Moderate/Strong La Nina? Stay Tuned -PDO/Global Cooling on the way? http://wxunleashed.blogspot.com/ |
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Dec 8 2010, 07:40 PM
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#12
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 2,108 Joined: 4-January 05 From: Detroit, MI Member No.: 610 |
I'm just not over the variation. EMCWF puts Chicago and NW in the sweet stop (along with central/northern MI).
GFS has the storm down by Orlando. Hah, craziness. -------------------- Winter 2012-2013
2 Winter Storm Watches 0 Winter Storm Warnings 3 Winter Weather Advisories 2+ years without a 6"+ snowstorm in Detroit 1st winter since I began tracking (2004) without a Winter Storm Warning  |
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