Model Data Interpretation, Thickness, SKEW-Ts, Soundings, Ensembles, Etc. Options

[WeatherMatrix]

This thread has been openened to answer frequently asked questions about model data interpretation.

I'll start out with a general link that may answer most of your questions about Ensembles, though it is somewhat technical:

- NCEP ENSEMBLE TRAINING

Ensembles are multiple versions of the same model run at the same time with slightly different parameters. Looking at ensembles gives you a range of possibilities from one model. Here's a blog I did on how to interpret Spaghetti Plots, Plume Graphs, Box Graphs and Probability Maps:

- ENSEMBLES GAUGE LATE WEEK COLD OUTBREAK

[jdrenken]

- NWS Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis Page...multiple tools to forecast the weather during all seasons.

- Theweatherprediction.com Winter Precipitation Indicies page. Explains how to forecast different types of precipitation based on the thickness levels.

- University of Albany Department of Atmospheric Sciences Winter Weather Page. Same as the weatherprediction.com.

- SPC Sounding Help Page will help you discern Severe Weather Skew-T soundings.

- Theweatherprediction.com to discern various forecasting based on a Skew-T.

- Here is a link for you to figure out if the qpf is x" amount and the temperature is y degrees, you'll end up with z" of snowfall.

[Zachary]

This thread has been openened to answer frequently asked questions about model data interpretation.

I'll start out with a general link that may answer most of your questions about Ensembles, though it is somewhat technical:

- NCEP ENSEMBLE TRAINING

Ensembles are multiple versions of the same model run at the same time with slightly different parameters. Looking at ensembles gives you a range of possibilities from one model. Here's a blog I did on how to interpret Spaghetti Plots, Plume Graphs, Box Graphs and Probability Maps:

- ENSEMBLES GAUGE LATE WEEK COLD OUTBREAK

Where in the world do I find that Ensemble on Pro?

[jdrenken]

Where in the world do I find that Ensemble on Pro?

Click on the 'Worldwide' selection under the models. You'll see GFS Ensembles there.

[jdrenken]

With Bill churning in the Atlantic, I was lucky enough to find a dropsonde decoder based on a cgi script here.

[carbyville]

Are there any free resources on the net aimed toward beginners/weather enthusiasts? I am learning very slowly by piecing info together from various places, but I'd love to know if there was one place that has the basics of interpreting models.

[morpheus27]

Ok, I'm trying to be good and post a general model question here instead of in the storm threads

My question is regarding convective feedback issues (CFI) that I occassionaly hear about on those storm boards.

My current understanding is essentially that CFI is suspected when a particular model run places the center of low pressure overtop the area of highest convective activity, i.e. heavy precip? Is that correct?

Well, my question essentially is this: if one observes this scenario is it always assumed that the LP center should be 'offset' from the location of convection? Why would it not be that the convection itself is misplaced? What other things should we look at to try and determine which it is, if both are possible culprits?

Thx!

[wxenthus]

Any chances of getting the RPM model?

Thanks,
Mike