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> Long-Term Pattern / Feb 09 SOUTHEAST, Is Winter Over? NO Storm Forecasts! NAO, Etc.
123
post Feb 2 2009, 03:21 PM
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hey yall! rolleyes.gif too bad the groundhog day storm didnt work out for us. my local met said that there is a good shot at some more cold and wintry weather in the coming months like middle to late february into march. today the groundhog saw his shadow so their will be six more weeks of winter. that means we have a few more shots at some cold and maybe some wintry weather. i want the forecast on this forum to be very descriptive with models and details. keep up the good work! tongue.gif


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GeorgiaGirl
post Feb 2 2009, 03:38 PM
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QUOTE(123 @ Feb 2 2009, 04:21 PM) *
hey yall! rolleyes.gif too bad the groundhog day storm didnt work out for us. my local met said that there is a good shot at some more cold and wintry weather in the coming months like middle to late february into march. today the groundhog saw his shadow so their will be six more weeks of winter. that means we have a few more shots at some cold and maybe some wintry weather. i want the forecast on this forum to be very descriptive with models and details. keep up the good work! tongue.gif


Just a suggestion, go to the OBS thread for this storm. There is a shortwave that is supposed to swing through the Southeast. It is mostly for Georgia and Tennessee apparently, but you will have a shot of seeing snow (VERY LIGHT ACCUMALATIONS AT MOST IF THERE IS ACCUMALATIONS), starting tomorrow evening.
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Justin-Atlanta
post Feb 2 2009, 06:19 PM
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Meanwhile the ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation after a brief "hiccup" toward El Nino is back in La Ninas arms again in weak status. You will recall that my Oct and Dec outlook for the coming winter allowed for a neutral to weak La Nina expectation. Based on MEI measures the weak La Nina is ranked closest to the 1974 analog year, one which saw La Nina last well into 1976. You can web search the government weather services views of what they feel this means to the weather in the months ahead. Of course, other factors will play a role, including the SSW event. The stratospheric warming usually is a pre-cursor signal to colder weather East of the Rockies with about a 3 week lag. So after the brief cold wave, we get a delayed January thaw-- in Feb.-- before colder readings return, combined with the La Nina and MJO, the nation probably faces an interesting Mid-Feb to early March weather wise.

that was from Kirk Mellish this past weekend. Henry said about the same thing earlier today. Joe Bastardi did as well.


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PLEASE DRIVE SAFETLY AND STAY WARM! I urge anyone forced to travel during this storm to pack a winter survival kit just in case you are stranded.
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123
post Feb 2 2009, 06:57 PM
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QUOTE(GeorgiaGirl @ Feb 2 2009, 04:38 PM) *
Just a suggestion, go to the OBS thread for this storm. There is a shortwave that is supposed to swing through the Southeast. It is mostly for Georgia and Tennessee apparently, but you will have a shot of seeing snow (VERY LIGHT ACCUMALATIONS AT MOST IF THERE IS ACCUMALATIONS), starting tomorrow evening.

thanks but no thanks.this topic is for the upcoming winter storms. that obs thread is only for the 3 day period. thanks anyway. i just want to stay here and talk about the models and see what they are saying about another cold shot with snow coming down in the next couple of months. alos, thank you justin-atlanta for joinging the topic hope to see you showing some news about the upcoming weeks anout the potential for some winter storms! rolleyes.gif


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GeorgiaGirl
post Feb 2 2009, 07:57 PM
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We get a break next week and possibly next from EVERYTHING RELATED TO WINTER, after that we probably get some more shots until late March (but they will mostly be nighttime things).

This post has been edited by GeorgiaGirl: Feb 2 2009, 07:57 PM
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post Feb 2 2009, 08:19 PM
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I'm not going to jump on this winter bandwagon quite yet, any cold that hits will be very brief and the zonal flows will tend to dominate. La Nina is basically falling into the ocean, it may waver a bit, but in 4 weeks it will be dead and then look for el nino next winter. Cold will be there, but brief, time of year is getting lte especially after the 15th of the month, so you better hope there is a hookup between the cold and jet or else nada. Not to crazy about last half of the month, so much needs to come together and I'm not sure they will either. Forget the la nina, watch it tank by months end.
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athensga
post Feb 2 2009, 08:25 PM
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QUOTE(CoolerByTheLake @ Feb 2 2009, 09:19 PM) *
I'm not going to jump on this winter bandwagon quite yet, any cold that hits will be very brief and the zonal flows will tend to dominate. La Nina is basically falling into the ocean, it may waver a bit, but in 4 weeks it will be dead and then look for el nino next winter. Cold will be there, but brief, time of year is getting lte especially after the 15th of the month, so you better hope there is a hookup between the cold and jet or else nada. Not to crazy about last half of the month, so much needs to come together and I'm not sure they will either. Forget the la nina, watch it tank by months end.

Technically Superstorm of 93' occurred in March, gave us a blizzard so it's not out of the realm of possibility. Although got to admit it's getting later and less probable for any winter event in the SE, but you never know, as I said w/the Superstorm. wink.gif


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post Feb 2 2009, 09:58 PM
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QUOTE(athensga @ Feb 2 2009, 10:25 PM) *
Technically Superstorm of 93' occurred in March, gave us a blizzard so it's not out of the realm of possibility. Although got to admit it's getting later and less probable for any winter event in the SE, but you never know, as I said w/the Superstorm. wink.gif



Of course it is possbile but my concern the next 2 weeks for "ya'll" is a tornadic outbreak and a big nasty one. There are some signs of a tremendous north to south temp disparity and an impulse of energy riding along the south and the clash of colder air. Still a ways out and need to see some more data, but for a week there has been compelling evidence that something may go down. As far as snow, it's still early in the game, however with la nina dying, and a weather pattern of more colorado lows, I'm not to sure of a major snow in the south but...perhaps end of the month might be possible.
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Robbi
post Feb 3 2009, 08:36 AM
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QUOTE(CoolerByTheLake @ Feb 2 2009, 10:58 PM) *
Of course it is possbile but my concern the next 2 weeks for "ya'll" is a tornadic outbreak and a big nasty one. There are some signs of a tremendous north to south temp disparity and an impulse of energy riding along the south and the clash of colder air. Still a ways out and need to see some more data, but for a week there has been compelling evidence that something may go down. As far as snow, it's still early in the game, however with la nina dying, and a weather pattern of more colorado lows, I'm not to sure of a major snow in the south but...perhaps end of the month might be possible.



If I can't have snow, Then I'm ready for spring. However, I have not ordered any Tornados! Keep them away, Please. They scare me to death. One thing about Northeast Ga is with the mountains, You can't see them coming. I love a good thunderstorm, as long as it's not severe.


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Wishing for some Snow in the NE Ga Mtns!!!
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123
post Feb 3 2009, 03:36 PM
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well my meteoroligist said their is still a chance of more winter weather. the groundhog said winter isnt over until late march so we habe aot of time for snow! thanks


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CarolinaWeather
post Feb 3 2009, 07:10 PM
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I saw two groundhogs cutting firewood in my backyard, so I know winters not over yet. : )
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NWATL
post Feb 4 2009, 08:56 AM
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Long-term pattern on the latest GFS is very interesting for us in the South. We should start to get active again with colder air and precip around Feb 12th. Long range shows even more cold air and weather pattern setting up after that.

Attached image(s)
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snowstorm madman
post Feb 4 2009, 09:18 AM
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QUOTE(CoolerByTheLake @ Feb 2 2009, 10:58 PM) *
Of course it is possbile but my concern the next 2 weeks for "ya'll" is a tornadic outbreak and a big nasty one. There are some signs of a tremendous north to south temp disparity and an impulse of energy riding along the south and the clash of colder air. Still a ways out and need to see some more data, but for a week there has been compelling evidence that something may go down. As far as snow, it's still early in the game, however with la nina dying, and a weather pattern of more colorado lows, I'm not to sure of a major snow in the south but...perhaps end of the month might be possible.

hey cooler.. your torch never blew here in the east. it's been colder here than in many past winters and even with the warm week coming up, there still is no sustained torch.. so..


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1234snow
post Feb 4 2009, 02:25 PM
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Well looks like an early spring will be returning to much of the southeast by Friday and will stay warm for a little while.

Below is from Accuweather:
Attached Image

Starting Friday, it will be nice enough to play a few holes for folks in the Southeast. The weekend looks even better.

After another 36 hours of cold weather, a noticeable warming trend will begin across the Southeast Friday. The warming will continue in earnest Saturday with temperatures reaching the 60s in most locations from Arkansas to the Carolinas. Farther south, 70s will reappear.

Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.

My main concern will be a possiblity of SEVERE WEATHER over the next few weeks.

But then the system will reload somewhat and then we may a chance at a snowstorm around the 12th to 16th timeframe, then maybe another after that, but those possible storms may end up being rain, but who knows this far out. Heck we can't even predict the weather as it is happening.



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Total Snowfall for 2010-11 Winter: 13.25 inches

Total Ice Accumulation for 2010-11: .25 inches

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123
post Feb 4 2009, 02:42 PM
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looks like the storm around the 12th could be major. that storm looks to be coming in after the cold air is in so we will have snow not a mix to snow. ill keep my fingers crossed. its a long time, but at least their something out their!
biggrin.gif


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GeorgiaGirl
post Feb 4 2009, 02:48 PM
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Well, time for me to break out the shorts and short sleeves in about 3 to 4 days!
As much as I like seeing snow, I like warmer weather better.
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Robbi
post Feb 4 2009, 03:00 PM
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QUOTE(GeorgiaGirl @ Feb 4 2009, 03:48 PM) *
Well, time for me to break out the shorts and short sleeves in about 3 to 4 days!
As much as I like seeing snow, I like warmer weather better.



Yep, I love it when I can cut our thermostat off & open some windows! Love it, Love it, Love it! (Plus sending the kids outside to play is always good, too!)


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Snowjunkie
post Feb 4 2009, 03:17 PM
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Yes indeed I think it will get awfully quiet around here for the next week or so. Not going to waste 60-65 degree weather sitting indoors. Soccer, Baseball, Golf, it's all good!
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1234snow
post Feb 4 2009, 03:22 PM
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QUOTE(Snowjunkie @ Feb 4 2009, 04:17 PM) *
Yes indeed I think it will get awfully quiet around here for the next week or so. Not going to waste 60-65 degree weather sitting indoors. Soccer, Baseball, Golf, it's all good!


I'm sure getting tired a being couped up in the house. It is time for some golf.


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"The path we have chosen for the present is full of hazards, as all paths are. The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission."

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Total Snowfall for 2010-11 Winter: 13.25 inches

Total Ice Accumulation for 2010-11: .25 inches

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GeorgiaGirl
post Feb 4 2009, 03:24 PM
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QUOTE(1234snow @ Feb 4 2009, 04:22 PM) *
I'm sure getting tired a being couped up in the house. It is time for some golf.


Its time for me to start riding my bike again.
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