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> Long Range Winter 2009/2010 Outlooks, Post All Mid-Atl/NE Here!
Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Mar 2 2009, 03:23 PM
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Well with the 2008-2009 winter coming to an end within the next 2-3 weeks...My focus has shifted to next winter 2009-2010...

I am calling for a Weak El Nino Winter...possibly gaining strength to a moderate to strong by the end of the winter season but not completely sold on that idea however.

As you can see this is the jet stream depicted in a typical el nino winter

Attached File  nawinter.gif ( 33.75K ) Number of downloads: 18


So here is the outlook
November
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2.png ( 56.33K ) Number of downloads: 63

December
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2DEC.png ( 53.79K ) Number of downloads: 50

Jan
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2JAN.png ( 55.96K ) Number of downloads: 53

Feb-March
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2FEBMAR.png ( 56.38K ) Number of downloads: 43


With a weak el nino expected seasonal to above normal temperatures can be expected...

Also with a weak el Nino I am expecting more snowfall then this winter..despite the temperature departures shown above.

Here is a graph showing el nino winter snowfalls for Philadelphia
Attached File  phisnowandenso.jpg ( 79.83K ) Number of downloads: 47


So even though the temperatures will be seasonal to above normal I am anticipating more snowfall and more bigger storms from the GOM.....

As i research more I will add more to this thread.
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TJ Schulte
post Mar 2 2009, 03:31 PM
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You guys are underestimating next year's El Nino. That El Nino is going to be ballin next year. I expect a Moderate to Strong next winter and possibly for 2010-2011 winter.

PS: How am I going to say 2010-2011. It's not like this year where I can say '09. Would I say 010 or 10 or 2010 or 20/10


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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Mar 2 2009, 03:40 PM
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QUOTE(TJ Schulte @ Mar 2 2009, 04:31 PM) *
You guys are underestimating next year's El Nino. That El Nino is going to be ballin next year. I expect a Moderate to Strong next winter and possibly for 2010-2011 winter.

PS: How am I going to say 2010-2011. It's not like this year where I can say '09. Would I say 010 or 10 or 2010 or 20/10

Well in this scenario there is not a case of "you guys". Winter outlooks are produced and create by one individual which is myself and at the moment I am only considering a weak el nino with the possibility of it becoming stronger...

This past winter season I had called for a neutral enso with a weak la nina type lingering effects and that appears to have been the correct call. So this winter ahead i am forging forward with the weak el nino with the possibility of it trending stronger as winter comes closer to an end....
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Removed_Member_starsinmysky_*
post Mar 2 2009, 03:57 PM
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I will not argue with you Matt. wink.gif

I am not touching this until at least September. I'd like to enjoy the spring and summer first.

I'll have to research weak El Nino's for the NYC area.
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tdp146
post Mar 2 2009, 04:02 PM
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when do you see this el nino to start cranking? Will it begin during the summer or not until later in fall or winter?


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grr
post Mar 2 2009, 04:05 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Mar 2 2009, 04:40 PM) *
Well in this scenario there is not a case of "you guys". Winter outlooks are produced and create by one individual which is myself and at the moment I am only considering a weak el nino with the possibility of it becoming stronger...

This past winter season I had called for a neutral enso with a weak la nina type lingering effects and that appears to have been the correct call. So this winter ahead i am forging forward with the weak el nino with the possibility of it trending stronger as winter comes closer to an end....

Good stuff...what do you see for the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley?
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Removed_Member_FlyingSteve_*
post Mar 2 2009, 04:10 PM
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Any chance of a slightly cooler... or maybe less humid (yea, laugh that up) summer here?
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Mar 2 2009, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(tdp146 @ Mar 2 2009, 05:02 PM) *
when do you see this el nino to start cranking? Will it begin during the summer or not until later in fall or winter?

The weak la nina/neutral atmosphere will continue to lose its grip thru the spring...at which time I believe the transition will start to take place, shortly there after spring. More then likely the el nino will start to develop by mid -late summer...
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Mar 2 2009, 04:18 PM
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QUOTE(grr @ Mar 2 2009, 05:05 PM) *
Good stuff...what do you see for the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley?

I only forecast for the mid atlantic and the northeast-sorry...
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Mar 2 2009, 04:19 PM
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QUOTE(FlyingSteve @ Mar 2 2009, 05:10 PM) *
Any chance of a slightly cooler... or maybe less humid (yea, laugh that up) summer here?

This is not a forecast thread about the summer. If you want to start a summer thread please feel free to do that..

This is a long range winter outlook for 2009-2010....
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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Mar 2 2009, 04:22 PM
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Next winter looks like it might be a white one in the east even though it is waaaa...(2 hours later)...aaaaay early. smile.gif
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pyrapurcell
post Mar 2 2009, 04:43 PM
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more snow for the snow drought DC area? Does this mean the whole winter will be more favorable for snow or just a portion?


--------------------
2009-10 Winter
First date of temperature below 10 F: NA
First inch of snow: December 5th
Total snowfall: ~28 inches
First blizzard: December 19th, 2009
First snow day: December 21st, 2009
Winter Solstice Dec 21 2009 12:47 PM EST
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Weatherjunkie
post Mar 2 2009, 04:49 PM
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It's hard to speculate what will happen 9 months from now.

The quasi-stationary La-Nina base state we are in has high resemblance towards last year's strong La-Nina. The SSW's that have caused this stationary La-Nina base are returning to normal.

Attached File  image004.jpg ( 37.52K ) Number of downloads: 3


GLAAM well entrenched in octants 2-3 of the GWO phase space, with octant 3 being La-Nina base state.

Attached File  image002.jpg ( 32.52K ) Number of downloads: 2


Similar analogs are last year's La-Nina. Drought conditions won't get any better for at the very least early spring in areas that are currently receiving little precip.

"The WB (2009) measure of the GWO during the last 40 days has ~2 sigma displacement toward octants 2-3 of phase space, essentially the La-Nina attractor. Not wanting to get too involved with the details of the current earth-atmosphere AAM budget (see plots), I think there may be another equilibrium "of sorts" of physical processes going on. For instance, the global frictional torque has recently spiked to ~plus 20 Hadleys, with most of that coming from enhanced trades. A portion of the latter may be coming from zonal mean negative AAM anomalies being brought down to the surface via mass circulations (enhancement of the Hadley cell; see earth AAM). In any case, this is an example of the atmosphere trying to get out of La-Nina, analogous to recent stimulus packages attempting to halt economic recession.

Attached File  image004.jpg ( 43.23K ) Number of downloads: 0


There has also been an abrupt poleward shift of zonal mean AAM transport from ~35N to 50N, with a weak subtropical source. The latter is not good news for Northern Hemispheric locations experiencing drought."

Much of this information is coming from the link below, I just added in the graphics.

Source

We all know that La-Nina comes in stages, usually of 2-3 years with each year it becomes progressively weaker. This year that La-Nina base state was at the same strength as last years. Had it not been for Rossby Wave Dispersion coming up from the troposphere into the stratosphere that disrupted the mean flow of the winds in the stratospheric Arctic, we would be seeing that blowtorch effect that La-Nina normally produces.

It is for these reasons that I am calling for a moderate to weak LA-NINA for the winter of 2009-2010 as my preliminary thoughts.

Attached File  image004.jpg ( 26.74K ) Number of downloads: 1


Fairly similar pattern next year as there was this year with the splitting of the Polar and Pacific Jets over the Pacific Ocean for most of the winter. Dominant northern branch will lead to mostly Miller B opportunities for the MA/NE and some GLC (yes Carlos, I'm re-opening the business). Temperatures will be about average to below average in December, and the begin to go above average by January and February.

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Mar 2 2009, 04:51 PM


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Removed_Member_crankee yankee_*
post Mar 2 2009, 05:12 PM
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whoa!! why are we throwin the word el nino around anyway..most ppl on here said THIS winter wasnt to be a la nina (even as late as dec of this year) and..it was a la nina...so how can we be sure of this? are water temps rising in east pacific? any way...winter of 2002-03 was a weak/mod el nino...and i banged out 80" of snow that year including 12-15" on christmas day of 2002 and a presidents day storm of 18-19"..so i could settle for that again...i am sick of GLC's anyway
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Weatherjunkie
post Mar 2 2009, 05:21 PM
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QUOTE(crankee yankee @ Mar 2 2009, 06:12 PM) *
whoa!! why are we throwin the word el nino around anyway..most ppl on here said THIS winter wasnt to be a la nina (even as late as dec of this year) and..it was a la nina...so how can we be sure of this? are water temps rising in east pacific? any way...winter of 2002-03 was a weak/mod el nino...and i banged out 80" of snow that year including 12-15" on christmas day of 2002 and a presidents day storm of 18-19"..so i could settle for that again...i am sick of GLC's anyway


Attached File  image001.gif ( 45.57K ) Number of downloads: 2


Nino regions 4 - 3.4 - 3 are below average, but are getting warmer,

Nino regions 1 +2 are above average by a little.

Expecting these to come back down below average over the next few weeks.


--------------------
The reason I talk to myself is that I am the only one whose answers I accept~ George Carlin

To be or not to be is not a question of compromise. Either you be or you don't be ~ Golda Meir

Sometimes good guys gotta do bad things to make the bad guys pay ~ Harvey Specter

Why is the rum gone? ~ Captain Jack Sparrow
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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 2 2009, 05:55 PM
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I predict a neutral to weak el nino with about average weather.


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Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niņo? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 2 2009, 06:00 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Mar 2 2009, 04:23 PM) *
Well with the 2008-2009 winter coming to an end within the next 2-3 weeks...My focus has shifted to next winter 2009-2010...

I am calling for a Weak El Nino Winter...possibly gaining strength to a moderate to strong by the end of the winter season but not completely sold on that idea however.

As you can see this is the jet stream depicted in a typical el nino winter

Attached File  nawinter.gif ( 33.75K ) Number of downloads: 18


So here is the outlook
November
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2.png ( 56.33K ) Number of downloads: 63

December
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2DEC.png ( 53.79K ) Number of downloads: 50

Jan
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2JAN.png ( 55.96K ) Number of downloads: 53

Feb-March
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2FEBMAR.png ( 56.38K ) Number of downloads: 43


With a weak el nino expected seasonal to above normal temperatures can be expected...

Also with a weak el Nino I am expecting more snowfall then this winter..despite the temperature departures shown above.

Here is a graph showing el nino winter snowfalls for Philadelphia
Attached File  phisnowandenso.jpg ( 79.83K ) Number of downloads: 47


So even though the temperatures will be seasonal to above normal I am anticipating more snowfall and more bigger storms from the GOM.....

As i research more I will add more to this thread.

What about rain and snow compared to average?


--------------------
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twitter: @nicksterdude010


Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niņo? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
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fisherboy
post Mar 2 2009, 07:40 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Mar 2 2009, 04:23 PM) *
Well with the 2008-2009 winter coming to an end within the next 2-3 weeks...My focus has shifted to next winter 2009-2010...

I am calling for a Weak El Nino Winter...possibly gaining strength to a moderate to strong by the end of the winter season but not completely sold on that idea however.

As you can see this is the jet stream depicted in a typical el nino winter

Attached File  nawinter.gif ( 33.75K ) Number of downloads: 18


So here is the outlook
November
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2.png ( 56.33K ) Number of downloads: 63

December
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2DEC.png ( 53.79K ) Number of downloads: 50

Jan
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2JAN.png ( 55.96K ) Number of downloads: 53

Feb-March
Attached File  CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE4_2FEBMAR.png ( 56.38K ) Number of downloads: 43


With a weak el nino expected seasonal to above normal temperatures can be expected...

Also with a weak el Nino I am expecting more snowfall then this winter..despite the temperature departures shown above.

Here is a graph showing el nino winter snowfalls for Philadelphia
Attached File  phisnowandenso.jpg ( 79.83K ) Number of downloads: 47


So even though the temperatures will be seasonal to above normal I am anticipating more snowfall and more bigger storms from the GOM.....

As i research more I will add more to this thread.
So ur saying with that forecast i should double my order for road salt next season,(this season 175 tons used so far) blink.gif

This post has been edited by fisherboy: Mar 2 2009, 07:41 PM


--------------------
Snowplowing events- 1
Ice control events 1

Total snowfall 2011-12 35.5


Snowfighters are not miracle works.
We are dedicated, hardworking human beings
who pit their will against the forces of nature.
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Mar 3 2009, 12:57 AM
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QUOTE(crankee yankee @ Mar 2 2009, 06:12 PM) *
whoa!! why are we throwin the word el nino around anyway..most ppl on here said THIS winter wasnt to be a la nina (even as late as dec of this year) and..it was a la nina...so how can we be sure of this? are water temps rising in east pacific? any way...winter of 2002-03 was a weak/mod el nino...and i banged out 80" of snow that year including 12-15" on christmas day of 2002 and a presidents day storm of 18-19"..so i could settle for that again...i am sick of GLC's anyway

Well i made my outlook 9 months in advance for this winter that we are currently in and called for a neutral enso with the chance of developing into a weak la nina. That was 9 months in advance. So this year i decided to come out with my seasonal outlook when I normally would make and issue it. I am not going to reveal the hows of how I come to the conclusions that I have and do. I am using the words El Nino because that is what i see the winter of 2009-2010 as being ....
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 3 2009, 02:10 AM
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This is a good site to show u 9 cities in the NE avgs , and what the effects of la nina, el nina and neutral

http://www.northcountryweather.com/neen_3.html


--------------------
western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.8"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"
2014 - 2015: 0.00"
[/size][/color]

[img]http://www.wunderground.com/swf/Rapid_Fire.swf?units=metric&station=KNJFREEH10.gif[img]
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