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> Long Range Winter 2009/2010 Outlooks, Post All Mid-Atl/NE Here!
Removed_Member_CoolerByTheLake_*
post Mar 3 2009, 05:33 AM
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Wow were not over this winter and were already hyping next? Man let's enjoy spring for a while. But for what it's worth expect EL Nino conditions by the end of October and a warmer winter for the northern third and a stormy southern california..should be a moderate event and a strong event for winter 2010-11.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 3 2009, 06:31 AM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Mar 2 2009, 07:49 PM) *
It's hard to speculate what will happen 9 months from now.

The quasi-stationary La-Nina base state we are in has high resemblance towards last year's strong La-Nina. The SSW's that have caused this stationary La-Nina base are returning to normal.

[attachment=37733:image004.jpg]

GLAAM well entrenched in octants 2-3 of the GWO phase space, with octant 3 being La-Nina base state.

[attachment=37734:image002.jpg]

Similar analogs are last year's La-Nina. Drought conditions won't get any better for at the very least early spring in areas that are currently receiving little precip.

"The WB (2009) measure of the GWO during the last 40 days has ~2 sigma displacement toward octants 2-3 of phase space, essentially the La-Nina attractor. Not wanting to get too involved with the details of the current earth-atmosphere AAM budget (see plots), I think there may be another equilibrium "of sorts" of physical processes going on. For instance, the global frictional torque has recently spiked to ~plus 20 Hadleys, with most of that coming from enhanced trades. A portion of the latter may be coming from zonal mean negative AAM anomalies being brought down to the surface via mass circulations (enhancement of the Hadley cell; see earth AAM). In any case, this is an example of the atmosphere trying to get out of La-Nina, analogous to recent stimulus packages attempting to halt economic recession.

[attachment=37735:image004.jpg]

There has also been an abrupt poleward shift of zonal mean AAM transport from ~35N to 50N, with a weak subtropical source. The latter is not good news for Northern Hemispheric locations experiencing drought."

Much of this information is coming from the link below, I just added in the graphics.

Source

We all know that La-Nina comes in stages, usually of 2-3 years with each year it becomes progressively weaker. This year that La-Nina base state was at the same strength as last years. Had it not been for Rossby Wave Dispersion coming up from the troposphere into the stratosphere that disrupted the mean flow of the winds in the stratospheric Arctic, we would be seeing that blowtorch effect that La-Nina normally produces.

It is for these reasons that I am calling for a moderate to weak LA-NINA for the winter of 2009-2010 as my preliminary thoughts.

[attachment=37736:image004.jpg]

Fairly similar pattern next year as there was this year with the splitting of the Polar and Pacific Jets over the Pacific Ocean for most of the winter. Dominant northern branch will lead to mostly Miller B opportunities for the MA/NE and some GLC (yes Carlos, I'm re-opening the business). Temperatures will be about average to below average in December, and the begin to go above average by January and February.


I will watch this last statement... overall very good info being brought to the table from both u and atown! Im not going to get involved right now because 9+months is to far for me to do... i can try for three months without truly busting! lol

Well you better hope that we get a different pattern... lol because if it is the same then well just look at the past two months! sry.... its just funny.


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Tylor
Aspiring Meteorologist, Now living at millersville university


Computer models and other important sites: http://southeastpaweather.blogspot.com/
Average: 23"
2008-2009 34" 148% of normal
2009-2010 74" 322% of normal
2010-2011 42" 183% of normal
Coldest Temp: 10
Average: 40.1"
Rainfall...32.10" (may be off by 1-2") well above average this year... Havent updated since Late july!
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 3 2009, 06:38 AM
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Here is a website i like to use... i see weatherjunkie also used this as well!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec.../MJO/enso.shtml

If we look a this... scroll over the white words and you will see different charts. I still see signs of a weak La Nina sticking around still. It is weakening to neutral but we still have a lot of below normal temps (water that is) out in the pacific! Hmmm it makes you wonder...


--------------------
Tylor
Aspiring Meteorologist, Now living at millersville university


Computer models and other important sites: http://southeastpaweather.blogspot.com/
Average: 23"
2008-2009 34" 148% of normal
2009-2010 74" 322% of normal
2010-2011 42" 183% of normal
Coldest Temp: 10
Average: 40.1"
Rainfall...32.10" (may be off by 1-2") well above average this year... Havent updated since Late july!
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 3 2009, 08:00 AM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Mar 2 2009, 04:23 PM) *
Well with the 2008-2009 winter coming to an end within the next 2-3 weeks...My focus has shifted to next winter 2009-2010...

I am calling for a Weak El Nino Winter...possibly gaining strength to a moderate to strong by the end of the winter season but not completely sold on that idea however.

As you can see this is the jet stream depicted in a typical el nino winter

[attachment=37723:nawinter.gif]

So here is the outlook
November
[attachment=37724:CURRENTF...IMAGE4_2.png]
December
[attachment=37725:CURRENTF...GE4_2DEC.png]
Jan
[attachment=37727:CURRENTF...GE4_2JAN.png]
Feb-March
[attachment=37726:CURRENTF..._2FEBMAR.png]

With a weak el nino expected seasonal to above normal temperatures can be expected...

Also with a weak el Nino I am expecting more snowfall then this winter..despite the temperature departures shown above.

Here is a graph showing el nino winter snowfalls for Philadelphia
[attachment=37729:phisnowandenso.jpg]

So even though the temperatures will be seasonal to above normal I am anticipating more snowfall and more bigger storms from the GOM.....

As i research more I will add more to this thread.


Great outlook. I definitely agree with this. I'm thinking a weak to moderate El Nino takes shape, but early winter may possibly be neutral as the weak La Nina dissipates. Then into the longer range I'd say the El Nino stays through 2011.
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Removed_Member_iceman1_*
post Mar 3 2009, 10:44 AM
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yea right ! you guys CANT get it right 4days let alone 1 year give me a break
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Mar 3 2009, 11:59 AM
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QUOTE(iceman1 @ Mar 3 2009, 11:44 AM) *
yea right ! you guys CANT get it right 4days let alone 1 year give me a break

Results of 9 months in advance forecasting....

Actual departures....
Attached File  30dTDeptNRCC.png ( 21.67K ) Number of downloads: 4


My forecast 9 months in advance...
Attached File  Feb2009Preliminary.png ( 61.04K ) Number of downloads: 3


That is essentially 100% spot on 9 months in advance...

I been doing this type of forecasting since 1988 smile.gif since my teacher had us do a project that was 2 months in advance.. Ever since my passion grew

This post has been edited by AtownWxWatcher: Mar 3 2009, 12:00 PM
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Removed_Member_Bl1zzard_*
post Mar 3 2009, 12:11 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Mar 3 2009, 12:59 PM) *
Results of 9 months in advance forecasting....

Actual departures....
Attached File  30dTDeptNRCC.png ( 21.67K ) Number of downloads: 4


My forecast 9 months in advance...
Attached File  Feb2009Preliminary.png ( 61.04K ) Number of downloads: 3


That is essentially 100% spot on 9 months in advance...

I been doing this type of forecasting since 1988 smile.gif since my teacher had us do a project that was 2 months in advance.. Ever since my passion grew


That graph of actual departures you posted isn't accurate for my area in Michigan. It shows us being about 2 degrees above average for the period while in actuality we are still a fair bit below. January was -5.6 degrees from average, February +3.3 and March so far (which has little effect) is -14.2. That does not come out to 3 degrees above average.

I'm not saying that makes your prediction wrong, and frankly, it appears it was spot on to me. I'm merely pointing out that the data of that image is not accurate for my immediate locale.

This post has been edited by Bl1zzard: Mar 3 2009, 12:11 PM
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Mar 3 2009, 12:33 PM
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QUOTE(Bl1zzard @ Mar 3 2009, 01:11 PM) *
That graph of actual departures you posted isn't accurate for my area in Michigan. It shows us being about 2 degrees above average for the period while in actuality we are still a fair bit below. January was -5.6 degrees from average, February +3.3 and March so far (which has little effect) is -14.2. That does not come out to 3 degrees above average.

I'm not saying that makes your prediction wrong, and frankly, it appears it was spot on to me. I'm merely pointing out that the data of that image is not accurate for my immediate locale.

The images come from here

Images
Which is a data source that the pro mets use as well....

This is for your area and it looks to show you in the range of +2-+4 for the time period
Attached File  30dTDeptMRCC.png ( 21.91K ) Number of downloads: 4

The view you were questioning was from the Northeast and mid atlantic and barely got michigan into the picture..

The whole point of that last post was to show that long range forecasting can be done and can be done with a skill of accuracy..
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Removed_Member_Bl1zzard_*
post Mar 3 2009, 12:55 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Mar 3 2009, 01:33 PM) *
The images come from here

Images
Which is a data source that the pro mets use as well....

This is for your area and it looks to show you in the range of +2-+4 for the time period
Attached File  30dTDeptMRCC.png ( 21.91K ) Number of downloads: 4

The view you were questioning was from the Northeast and mid atlantic and barely got michigan into the picture..

The whole point of that last post was to show that long range forecasting can be done and can be done with a skill of accuracy..


I fully understand the point of your post and I think it is a pretty good demonstration of that fact.

Never mind my original complaint anyway. On the reduced version of the image that's in your post it looks like it says 1/3 and not 1/31. My mistake.

This post has been edited by Bl1zzard: Mar 3 2009, 12:55 PM
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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 3 2009, 02:25 PM
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Here is my reasoning of a neutral to weak el nino winter.
Attached File  ENSO_FEB_2009.gif ( 19.07K ) Number of downloads: 0

As you can see,we are in a weak la nina state right now,the consensus of the forecast's are taking this to neutral and staying put,then i believe it will go to a weak el nino proving my statement.
Source


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Winter 2014-2015:Moderate/Strong El Niņo? Stay Tuned
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Mar 3 2009, 02:36 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Mar 3 2009, 03:25 PM) *
Here is my reasoning of a neutral to weak el nino winter.
Attached File  ENSO_FEB_2009.gif ( 19.07K ) Number of downloads: 0

As you can see,we are in a weak la nina state right now,the consensus of the forecast's are taking this to neutral and staying put,then i believe it will go to a weak el nino proving my statement.
Source

Well you are on the same page as me I would believe with thinking a weak el nino will be in place for the winter.

However..I want to clarify something here...

While conditions are in a weak la nina state now..that would not classify this winter season of 2008-09 as a weak la nina. It is possible to be in a state of a weak la nina but not have the winter season classified as a LA NINA. I think this is where people are getting confused...

See the following...

QUOTE
The most recent weekly SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region is -0.7 C, indicating weak La Niņa conditions in the tropical Pacific. What are the probabilities for achieving a La Niņa event (i.e. an "event" refers to La Niņa conditions persisting for approximately 5 months) in early 2009? Persistent and large-scale easterly wind anomalies along the equator in the western-to-central Pacific since early October now have become coupled to changes in the upper ocean, but only after two to three months of relative oceanic unresponsiveness from September to November 2008. The thermocline, which contitutes the main element of the tropical Pacific system imparting ENSO predictability, is shallow in the eastern part of the Pacific, but deep anomalies in the west loom ready to reverse the current cooling.

It is possible that the negative anomalies in the east-central Pacific could persist or even strengthen slightly as the recently stronger sub-surface anomaly structure infuences the surface in the coming month. However, the intensity of enhancement of the Trade Winds has not increased, and even appears to have slightly weakened, since its late-November maximum and recent late January secondary maximum. Additionally, as the ITCZ moves closer to the equator, the Trade Winds weaken and the seasonal warming of the eastern Pacific ensues, it will become more difficult for the atmosphere to maintain cold oceanic conditions. The models, both dynamical and statistical, suggest a tendency towards neutral conditions beginning from the first season.


So as you can see the true definition of a La Nina event is persisting for 5 months...So while we have a la nina type atmosphere currently..the chances of this being a La Nina winter are quite low...

Source

This post has been edited by AtownWxWatcher: Mar 3 2009, 02:37 PM
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Weatherjunkie
post Mar 3 2009, 02:36 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Mar 3 2009, 03:25 PM) *
Here is my reasoning of a neutral to weak el nino winter.
Attached File  ENSO_FEB_2009.gif ( 19.07K ) Number of downloads: 0

As you can see,we are in a weak la nina state right now,the consensus of the forecast's are taking this to neutral and staying put,then i believe it will go to a weak el nino proving my statement.
Source


It's not La-Nina officially. But yes, the pattern is highly similar. Something I've been trying to get at for a while now. If there wouldn't be any SSW's, then we would have been nearing a moderate/strong La-Nina by now because there would have been nothing to weaken it.

I've been watching these model output forecasts since late fall. Let me tell you something, a good portion of them screwed it up.

Here's Novemer's outlook.

Attached File  image001.gif ( 19.39K ) Number of downloads: 0


As you can see, all but 3 predicted it to be at -1 or lower for this time period.

La-Nina usually comes in spurts of 2-3 years. This winter ('09-'10) will be the third IMO. A weaker La-Nina.

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Mar 3 2009, 02:38 PM


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The only way of finding the limits of the possible is by going beyond them into the impossible. ~Arthur C Clarke

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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 3 2009, 02:43 PM
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Now let me review my winter 2008-2009 forecast that i made 5 months ago.

QUOTE
Here Is My Winter 2008-2009 Forecast For The Northeast

Well,It Is November 3 2008 A Day Before Election Day And Normally Election Day Is The Start Of Winters With St Patricks Days Or Easters Ending Them.This Winter Will Be MUCH Better And MUCH Longer Than The Last.

Winter 2007-2008 Recap-This Winter Was Not A Good One If You Lived South Of New York City And East Of The Appalachian Mountains,There Was A Consistent Moderate To Strong La Nina For The Whole Winter And It Caused Warm,Dry And Snowless Conditions,For Example At My House I Normally Get About 20 Inches Of Snow,Instead I Got 10 Inches Of Snow,The Storm Track Was Always Going Through The Appalachians,Ohio Valley And Great Lakes So We Got Rain And Ice.

NOW,This Winter Will Start Early At About November 22,2008 And End Around April 12,2009,So It Will Be About A 4 Month Winter,Anyways,Lets Start Off With The Prevailing Factors For This Winter

NAO-The Nao Lately Has Been Negative For A While Which Was Not Mainly The Case Last Winter Where It Was Mainly Positive,This Winter Everyone Will Be Happy As The NAO Will Be Mainly Negative Bringing Colder Than Normal Tempatures.

PDO-The Pdo Has Been The Same Way As The Nao And This Winter It Will Be Negative Most Of The Time Bringing More Precipatation Than Normal.

PNA-The Pna Will Be Mainly Positive This Winter Also Bringing More Rain And Snow Than Normal.

ENSO-The Enso Has Been On The La Nina Side Lately,Last Winter The La Nina Was At Moderate To Strong Stage Bringing A Westward Storm Track,Right Now It Is Neutral And For This Winter It Could Stay Neutral Or Even Go To A Weak La Nina But Nothing Like Last Winter.

MONTH BY MONTH FORECAST

NOVEMBER 2008-This Month Will Start Off Warm,BUT At The End Of The Month A Big Trough Will Come Bringing Very Cold And Very Rainy And Snowy Weather With A Potential Snowstorm For Everybody.

Average Tempature-Slightly Below Average
Average Rainfall-Slightly Above Average
Average Snowfall-Slightly Above Average
NAO-Mainly Negative
Mainly Trough

DECEMBER 2008-This Month Will Be Cold And Snowy Generally,Maybe A Small Break Near Mid Month So If Anyone Did Not Get Snow In November,They Will Get It This Month,Trough Dominates.

Average Tempature-Below Average
Average Rainfall-Slightly Above Average
Average Snowfall-Above Average
NAO-Mainly Negative
Mainly Trough

JANUARY 2009-This Will Be The Warmest Month Of The Winter,The Beggining Of The Month Will Be Cold But The Rest Of The Month Will Be Rather Warm And Dry With A Pretty Big Ridge,So This Should Be Our Traditional January Thaw.

Average Tempature-Slighty Above Average
Average Rainfall-Near Average
Average Snowfall-Slightly Below Average
NAO-Mainly Positive
Mainly Ridge

FEBRUARY 2009-The Begginning Of The Month May Continue To Be Warm And Dry But After That,Winter Will Return With A Trough Coming Back Bringing More Rain And Snow Than Normal With Colder Than Normal Tempatures,Although At The End Of The Month,Normal Weather Will Come.

Average Tempatures-Near Average
Average Rainfall-Slightly Above Average
Average Snowfall-Near Average
NAO-Near Neutral
About Equal Trough And Ridge

MARCH 2009-Remember The Rule,In Like A Lamb Out Like A Lion,Will The Lion Will Be Here The Whole Month,Spring 2009 Could Get Delayed,So That Means This Month Will Feel Like Mid Winter Bringing Colder Than Normal Tempatures For The Whole Month And Wetter And Snowier Than Normal Weather For The Whole Month,Once Again Trough Dominates.

Average Tempatures-Below Average
Average Rainfall-Slightly Above Average
Average Snowfall-Above Average
NAO-Mainly Negative
Mainly Trough

APRIL 2009-This Will Be The Presumed Start Of Spring 2009,But Up Until About Easter,Winters Wrath Will Be Continuing With January Like Tempatures And Very Wet,Windy And Snowy Weather,BUT,Around The 20th,Winter Will End Rapidly With A Severely Strong Warm Up To Temps In The 60s,70s And Even 80s And Drier Than Normal Weather,So A Big Trough Will Be Rapidly Be Replaced With A Big Ridge.

Average Tempatures-Average To Slightly Above Average
Average Rainfall-Near Average
Average Snowfall-Average To Slightly Below Average
NAO-Near Neutral Leaning Positive
About Equal Leaning Toward More Of A Ridge But In Total Time There Should Be A Trough For The Main Period Of The Month


So In Average,This Winter Will Hold Mainly Below Average Temps With Isolated Periods Of Normal To Warmer Than Normal Tempatures But Tempatures Will Mainly Stay Below Average.For Rainfall,Excpect It To Be Above Average A Lot Of The Time With Periods Of Average Rainfall,It Really Wont Get Below Average Much,Maybe Once.For Snowfall,Like Rainfall It Will Also Be Mainly Above Average With Isolated Periods Of Normal To Below Normal Snowfall,If You Like Sledding,This Will Be Your Winter.

First Early Long Range Winter 2009-2010 Outlook
Temps-Near To Slightly Below Average
Rainfall-Slightly Above Average
Snowfall-Near To Slightly Above Average
ENSO-Weak To Moderate El Nino

Snowfall Map

Attached File  WINTER1.jpg ( 234.3K ) Number of downloads: 4


Predicted Snowfall Accumulations This Winter
Washington DC-24 To 34 Inches
Baltimore MD-26 To 35 Inches
Philadelphia PA-30 To 40 Inches
New York City NY-32 To 43 Inches
Boston MA-35 To 47 Inches

Snowfall Percentage Map

Attached File  WINTER2.jpg ( 74.73K ) Number of downloads: 2


So Snowfall Percentages Will Average 125 To 200%

There Will Be About 1 To 3 Snowstorms A Month This Winter.

Storm Tracks

Attached File  WINTER3.jpg ( 44.83K ) Number of downloads: 3


Snow Day Forecast

Attached File  WINTER4.jpg ( 80.88K ) Number of downloads: 3


So Let Me Recap This Winter

Below Average Tempatures
Above Average Rainfall
Above Average Snowfall
Neutral To Weak La Nina ENSO
Mainly Negative NAO
Mainly Negative PDO
Mainly Positive PNA
1 To 3 Snowstorms A Month

So,That Is My Forecast,If You Would Like To Compliment Or If You Think Something Is Wrong,Ask Me.

Source



--------------------
No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
twitter: @nicksterdude010
Polar Vortex, don't let it continue, 4 BWI 3/4/14 FTW

Winter 2014-2015:Moderate/Strong El Niņo? Stay Tuned
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Mar 3 2009, 02:51 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Mar 3 2009, 03:36 PM) *
It's not La-Nina officially. But yes, the pattern is highly similar. Something I've been trying to get at for a while now. If there wouldn't be any SSW's, then we would have been nearing a moderate/strong La-Nina by now because there would have been nothing to weaken it.

I've been watching these model output forecasts since late fall. Let me tell you something, a good portion of them screwed it up.

Here's Novemer's outlook.

Attached File  image001.gif ( 19.39K ) Number of downloads: 0


As you can see, all but 3 predicted it to be at -1 or lower for this time period.

La-Nina usually comes in spurts of 2-3 years. This winter ('09-'10) will be the third IMO. A weaker La-Nina.

While sometimes that thought of 2-3 years is true..other times it is not...
For example...
1984 was a la nina winter
1985 was neutral
1988 was a la nina winter
1989 was neutral
1995 was a la nina winter
1996 was neutral
2007 was a la nina winter
2008 thus far is considered neutral...

Examples for what you are saying...
1954,55,56 were all la nina
1973,74,75 were all la nina
1998,99, 2000 were all la nina

However..if one were to go back and check the patterns of when you had a la nina followed by neutral conditions....You would find the following pattern
1984 la nina
1985 neutral
1986 el nino

1995 la nina
1996 neutral
1997 el nino

So as you can see pattern suggests that the winter up coming would be a el nino winter...

Now if this winter (2008-09) would somehow become an official La Nina then i would say that your thinking of another La Nina winter would be correct cause that would correlate quite well in the pattern....

However..as noted..the chances of that happening are indeed quite small....so thats why and how I can come to the conclusion of an el nino winter....

Source
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WNYLakeEffect
post Mar 3 2009, 02:51 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Mar 3 2009, 03:43 PM) *
Now let me review my winter 2008-2009 forecast that i made 5 months ago.
Source

Hmm...You busted more than you succeeded, but still got some things right. Not bad overall. However, I'm baffled why you had some areas(mine included) getting 9+ snowdays. In most of those areas, it take 1'+ to close schools...I've had 2 snowdays and a 2 hour delay, but the delay was for ice and one snowday busted big time, but I digress and babble.


--------------------
Winter 2010-11 Snow: 148.0"
Winter 2009-10 Snow: 128.3"
Winter 2008-09 Snow: 175.0"
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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 3 2009, 02:54 PM
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QUOTE(WinterStromDrought @ Mar 3 2009, 03:51 PM) *
Hmm...You busted more than you succeeded, but still got some things right. Not bad overall. However, I'm baffled why you had some areas(mine included) getting 9+ snowdays. In most of those areas, it take 1'+ to close schools...I've had 2 snowdays and a 2 hour delay, but the delay was for ice and one snowday busted big time, but I digress and babble.

I know,i busted quite a bit,although i did get the ENSO right.

I am thinking a more normal winter this year.


--------------------
No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
twitter: @nicksterdude010
Polar Vortex, don't let it continue, 4 BWI 3/4/14 FTW

Winter 2014-2015:Moderate/Strong El Niņo? Stay Tuned
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Weatherjunkie
post Mar 3 2009, 02:58 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Mar 3 2009, 03:51 PM) *
While sometimes that thought of 2-3 years is true..other times it is not...
For example...
1984 was a la nina winter
1985 was neutral
1988 was a la nina winter
1989 was neutral
1995 was a la nina winter
1996 was neutral
2007 was a la nina winter
2008 thus far is considered neutral...

Examples for what you are saying...
1954,55,56 were all la nina
1973,74,75 were all la nina
1998,99, 2000 were all la nina

However..if one were to go back and check the patterns of when you had a la nina followed by neutral conditions....You would find the following pattern
1984 la nina
1985 neutral
1986 el nino

1995 la nina
1996 neutral
1997 el nino

So as you can see pattern suggests that the winter up coming would be a el nino winter...

Now if this winter (2008-09) would somehow become an official La Nina then i would say that your thinking of another La Nina winter would be correct cause that would correlate quite well in the pattern....

However..as noted..the chances of that happening are indeed quite small....so thats why and how I can come to the conclusion of an el nino winter....

Source


I consider La-Nina and a masked La-Nina to be the same thing. Similarities would be:

Split flow out in the Pacific with a dominant and progressive northern branch with the occasional southern branch system.

Southeast ridge will pop it's head out every once in a while.

Fact of the matter is, we were heading for a moderate/strong La-Nina like last year until February when all heck broke loose in the stratosphere. It was a major stratospheric warming event that basically neutralized the La-Nina.

What I am trying to get at is, this year's ghost like La-Nina was in a moderate phase for 2/3 of winter. And with that being said, I think it will take 1 more winter until we go neutral to El-Nino. Of course, this is all in my opinion.

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Mar 3 2009, 02:59 PM


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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Mar 3 2009, 03:03 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Mar 3 2009, 03:58 PM) *
I consider La-Nina and a masked La-Nina to be the same thing. Similarities would be:

Split flow out in the Pacific with a dominant and progressive northern branch with the occasional southern branch system.

Southeast ridge will pop it's head out every once in a while.

Fact of the matter is, we were heading for a moderate/strong La-Nina like last year until February when all heck broke loose in the stratosphere. It was a major stratospheric warming event that basically neutralized the La-Nina.

What I am trying to get at is, this year's ghost like La-Nina was in a moderate phase for 2/3 of winter. And with that being said, I think it will take 1 more winter until we go neutral to El-Nino. Of course, this is all in my opinion.

Not sure how you can say we were heading for a moderate strong La Nina when the reading for the months of nov/dec/jan was -0.6....? Would have to wait to see what the readings for the next set of months is.....
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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 3 2009, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Mar 3 2009, 04:03 PM) *
Not sure how you can say we were heading for a moderate strong La Nina when the reading for the months of nov/dec/jan was -0.6....? Would have to wait to see what the readings for the next set of months is.....

I would have to admit your right,we have not been in no true la nina mode this winter.

Anyways can you bring back your forecast from last year and review it?


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yankees
post Mar 3 2009, 03:08 PM
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Hey matt do you think i will get above average snow next year or no as this year was average. Also do you see possiblly us in the tri state seeing a memorable blizzard next year


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