Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

2 Pages V  < 1 2  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> 2009 Hurricane & Tropical Storm Season Forecasts, *Post All Hurricane Forecasts Here*
96blizzard22701
post Jul 14 2009, 05:56 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 944
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Culpeper Va.
Member No.: 17,491





Interesting disscusion from Dr. Postel.

""Hurricane Season Off to Slow Start
No signs yet of season heating up


Tropical sea surface temperatures are generally above average, but tropical storm activity is non-existent. Image courtesy NOAA's National Hurricane Center.

By Dr. Gregory Postel, Tropical Weather Expert

The long-range forecasts for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season have thus far come to a general consensus. They nearly unanimously agree on a near-average or slightly quieter-than-average season, with the number of named storms expected to be around 12 and the number of hurricanes about half that.

Now that these statistically based predictions have served their purpose by providing an estimation of what to expect, we can turn our attention to the shorter-term factors that strongly influence what we will actually get. While the developing El Nino may continue to play a significant role in creating a less-than-optimal setting over the Atlantic and Caribbean basins (see Andrew Freedman's post from July 8), there are other atmospheric processes we must watch on a daily/weekly basis that could ignite the otherwise sluggish start to this season.

Let's look at some of the factors that can affect tropical activity on time scales less than a month...

Certain phases of a pattern known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), for example, are known to foster tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic. Capable of altering rainfall (and the vertical circulations that go along with it) and wind shear (a change in wind direction with height in the atmosphere that can rip apart developing tropical systems), the MJO's influence over the tropical Atlantic can be linked with upswings and downswings in storm frequency during hurricane season.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, a north-south oscillation in atmospheric pressure over the Atlantic Ocean) is another large-scale driver of tropical cyclone patterns over the Western Hemisphere. Often cited for its ability to steer hurricanes, the NAO can also at times create a dusty, highly sheared environment hostile to tropical storm formation.

One way to look at the structure and evolution of the MJO and NAO is through the lens of the weather prediction models; those very same models that forecast whether or not it will rain on your town tomorrow. While there is obviously much more to the complicated puzzle of hurricane formation than just knowing the phase of the MJO/NAO (or the status of El Nino, for that matter), the weather models are not yet showing a favorable configuration in any of these factors for Atlantic development.

Despite the fact that the sea-surface temperatures are warm enough for storms to form, and in fact warmer than "normal" over large portions of the basin, the environmental conditions are just too windy, dry and dusty. And they will probably remain that way for at least the next week -- perpetuating the already quiet July. Stay tuned ...

Dr. Gregory Postel is the lead meteorologist for a weather-risk management firm in Overland Park, KS. He earned his Ph.D. in atmospheric sciences from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and conducted research on factors leading to the development of tropical cyclones. He's an avid hurricane chaser and has been known to drive more than a thousand miles to intercept land-falling hurricanes.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_AstroMet_*
post Jul 17 2009, 08:02 AM
Post #22







Guests








QUOTE(96blizzard22701 @ Jul 14 2009, 03:56 PM) *
Interesting disscusion from Dr. Postel.

""Hurricane Season Off to Slow Start
No signs yet of season heating up
Tropical sea surface temperatures are generally above average, but tropical storm activity is non-existent. Image courtesy NOAA's National Hurricane Center.

By Dr. Gregory Postel, Tropical Weather Expert

The long-range forecasts for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season have thus far come to a general consensus. They nearly unanimously agree on a near-average or slightly quieter-than-average season, with the number of named storms expected to be around 12 and the number of hurricanes about half that.

Now that these statistically based predictions have served their purpose by providing an estimation of what to expect, we can turn our attention to the shorter-term factors that strongly influence what we will actually get. While the developing El Nino may continue to play a significant role in creating a less-than-optimal setting over the Atlantic and Caribbean basins (see Andrew Freedman's post from July 8), there are other atmospheric processes we must watch on a daily/weekly basis that could ignite the otherwise sluggish start to this season.

Let's look at some of the factors that can affect tropical activity on time scales less than a month...

Certain phases of a pattern known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), for example, are known to foster tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic. Capable of altering rainfall (and the vertical circulations that go along with it) and wind shear (a change in wind direction with height in the atmosphere that can rip apart developing tropical systems), the MJO's influence over the tropical Atlantic can be linked with upswings and downswings in storm frequency during hurricane season.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, a north-south oscillation in atmospheric pressure over the Atlantic Ocean) is another large-scale driver of tropical cyclone patterns over the Western Hemisphere. Often cited for its ability to steer hurricanes, the NAO can also at times create a dusty, highly sheared environment hostile to tropical storm formation.

One way to look at the structure and evolution of the MJO and NAO is through the lens of the weather prediction models; those very same models that forecast whether or not it will rain on your town tomorrow. While there is obviously much more to the complicated puzzle of hurricane formation than just knowing the phase of the MJO/NAO (or the status of El Nino, for that matter), the weather models are not yet showing a favorable configuration in any of these factors for Atlantic development.

Despite the fact that the sea-surface temperatures are warm enough for storms to form, and in fact warmer than "normal" over large portions of the basin, the environmental conditions are just too windy, dry and dusty. And they will probably remain that way for at least the next week -- perpetuating the already quiet July. Stay tuned ...

Dr. Gregory Postel is the lead meteorologist for a weather-risk management firm in Overland Park, KS. He earned his Ph.D. in atmospheric sciences from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and conducted research on factors leading to the development of tropical cyclones. He's an avid hurricane chaser and has been known to drive more than a thousand miles to intercept land-falling hurricanes.


Thanks for the update '96blizzard. Again, I've seen an active season, and expected this, since we've recently emerged out of a cooler than normal spring. I still maintain that this summer's weather for the United States will be very warm, and above average through to late autumn.

Moreover, the hurricane season is just getting started and we should be seeing some invests off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic already, with more tracking likely for the coasts of the Southeastern U.S., with tracking also along the Eastern seaboard this year. Late July, August, September, and October all look like very active months.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Glsbnewt1
post Jul 17 2009, 06:01 PM
Post #23




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 87
Joined: 26-January 08
Member No.: 13,180





What is that based on? In your first post, you say, "based on my calculations there will be a very active tropical season, and it will have an early start."

Well, we're off to an unusually late start actually. Now you're saying "looks like late July, August, September..." will be very active. Actually we're already in late July and it looks like there's no signs of development, so how can you say it looks "active?"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_AstroMet_*
post Jul 21 2009, 10:50 AM
Post #24







Guests








QUOTE(Glsbnewt1 @ Jul 17 2009, 04:01 PM) *
What is that based on? In your first post, you say, "based on my calculations there will be a very active tropical season, and it will have an early start."

Well, we're off to an unusually late start actually. Now you're saying "looks like late July, August, September..." will be very active. Actually we're already in late July and it looks like there's no signs of development, so how can you say it looks "active?"


I use the words "early start" for a reason. In atmospheric forecasting, it is important to look at what the climate is going to do during new seasons, and if you look at the atmosphere, you will see that we've been in a transitional period from the late, cooler-than-average spring, and now, we will begin to see a higher Atlantic Ridge, further north than usual, which will allow tropical flow up through the entire eastern coastline. This is one of my reasons for calling for an active tropical season this year.

Also, if you look at my hurricane forecast, you will see that I highlighted the months of August and September as active - try some patience, and look at the developments of higher humidity, and more precipitation, as this season is just getting started.

This post has been edited by AstroMet: Jul 21 2009, 10:56 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_AstroMet_*
post Jul 21 2009, 11:06 AM
Post #25







Guests








QUOTE(weatherpredictor123 @ Jun 16 2009, 01:01 PM) *
So wierd though because in december they were expecting a above average season then in april a average season and now a below average season. I do think this summer will not be good for hurricanes because of this el nino and don't expect that many landfalls either dry.gif .


I expect enough decent landfalls to affect the Southeastern and eastern coastlines this year. What we will see, particularly in late July into August is a more northern Atlantic Ridge, allowing tropical moisture and humidity to flow north, into the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic states. We also should see some action, say off the coast of northern regions of the Bahama islands, with bursting happening from here since surface pressure will be high.

We will see much better organization of these tropical bursts in August turning into tropical cyclones. These will get larger in August, and September, active months, and I expect it to rain heavily at times, with constant storms and an electrically-charged atmosphere along the east coast through the next two months - we should see several tropical storms and hurricane development that will impact the Southeastern, and eastern coastlines this summer. It's going to be wet and humid from this point on into September.


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SWOhioweather
post Jul 21 2009, 09:23 PM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,538
Joined: 24-January 09
From: Beavercreek/Columbus, OH
Member No.: 17,080





After recent weather patterns I am going with:

6 Named Storms
3 Hurricanes
1 Major Hurricane


--------------------
Alec Butner
The Ohio State University
Atmospheric Science ('16)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
hckyplayer8
post Aug 6 2009, 07:16 PM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,184
Joined: 13-November 08
From: Chicken Capital,PA
Member No.: 16,148






</h2>
QUOTE
<h2>NOAA Lowers Hurricane Season Outlook, Cautions Public Not to Let Down Guard
August 6, 2009

Animation of El Niño in Pacific.

El Niño animation (Credit: NOAA)

According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Niño continue to develop. But scientists say the season’s quiet start does not guarantee quiet times ahead. The season, which began June 1, is entering its historical peak period of August through October, when most storms form.

“While this hurricane season has gotten off to quiet start, it’s critical that the American people are prepared in case a hurricane strikes,” said Commerce Secretary Gary Locke.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, now predicts a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5).

The main change from the May outlook is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes. The May outlook called for nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. During an average season, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater and two of those become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.

In recent weeks, forecasts for the return of El Niño – warmer than normal waters along the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean – have come to fruition.

“El Niño continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms.”

“El Niño may mean fewer storms compared to recent seasons, but it doesn’t mean you can let your guard down,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “History shows that hurricanes can strike during an El Niño.” Some examples include Betsy in 1965, Camille in 1969, Bob in 1991, Danny in 1997 and Lili in 2002.

Even though El Niño tends to decrease the number of storms, other climate factors may help to create some storms. As predicted in May, conditions associated with the high-activity era that began in 1995 are in place, and include enhanced rainfall over west Africa and warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean water, which favor storm development.

The calm start to this hurricane season is not a reliable indicator of the overall activity for the entire season. The 1992 Atlantic hurricane season, for example, had a below-normal number of named storms and hurricanes. The first storm did not form until late August, when Hurricane Andrew hit southern Florida as a destructive Category 5 storm.

Hurricane Andrew slams into South Florida in August 1992 during a hurricane season that began late.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“These outlooks are extremely valuable when determining cycles and trends for the season, however they don’t tell us when the next storm will occur or where it may strike,” said FEMA administrator Craig Fugate. “It only takes one storm to put a community at risk. That is why we need to take action and prepare ourselves and our families before the next storm hits, including developing a family disaster plan. By taking a few simple steps now we can help ensure that we are better prepared and that our first responders are able to focus on our most vulnerable citizens.”

Predicting where and when a storm may hit land depends on the weather conditions in place at the time the storm approaches. Therefore NOAA’s seasonal outlook, which spans multiple months, does not include landfall projections. But once a storm appears to be forming, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will issue track and intensity forecasts.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.


--------------------
The views and opinions expressed in my posts are of my own and do not reflect the views of the USAF.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
mikete90
post Aug 13 2009, 10:21 AM
Post #28




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 158
Joined: 28-August 08
From: San Diego
Member No.: 15,474





7 Named storms
3 TS
2 Cat 1
1 Cat 2
1 Cat 5

Yes i know thats a wild prediction well see at the end of the year how crazy it really was tongue.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_AstroMet_*
post Aug 15 2009, 10:26 PM
Post #29







Guests








QUOTE(mikete90 @ Aug 13 2009, 08:21 AM) *
7 Named storms
3 TS
2 Cat 1
1 Cat 2
1 Cat 5

Yes i know thats a wild prediction well see at the end of the year how crazy it really was tongue.gif


The season will continue to be active this month, and into September as well. The summer season is just starting, and will extend deep into autumn.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Aug 17 2009, 05:42 AM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 33,124
Joined: 29-August 08
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jun 16 2009, 05:23 PM) *
The el nino looks like it's intensifying faster than I thought, and with the inactivity so far, I reduced my forecast. This hurricane season looks a little similar to 2006 with the el nino.

8-11 named storms
2-5 hurricanes
0-2 major hurricanes

Landfalls in US:
1-3 tropical storms
0-1 hurricanes (in GOM or SE coast)

The hurricane season came roaring in with 3 tropical storms active at once (Ana, Bill, Claudette), and after the tropics calming down a bit after Claudette, I expect activity to pick up once again, but then quickly come to an end as el nino's can cause hurricane seasons to end earlier than usual (2006, Isaac ended the season in early October). For my late summer update, I am making a few revisions to my forecast, making it more similar to my first forecast:

9-12 named storms (3 so far)
3-6 hurricanes (1 so far)
1-2 major hurricanes (0 so far)

Landfalls in US:
2-4 tropical storms
0-2 hurricanes (in GOM or SE coast)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Glsbnewt1
post Aug 24 2009, 06:07 PM
Post #31




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 87
Joined: 26-January 08
Member No.: 13,180





Listen astromet, it's absolutely silly that you keep on saying, "This is going to happen... that is going to happen," and when it fails to happen, you ignore it. You were very wrong, you said early start to the season, and we've had an unusually late start. It can't get more wrong than that. I hate to break it to you but it looks like your "astroMeteorology" has been debunked!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_AstroMet_*
post Aug 25 2009, 12:33 PM
Post #32







Guests








QUOTE(Glsbnewt1 @ Aug 24 2009, 04:07 PM) *
Listen astromet, it's absolutely silly that you keep on saying, "This is going to happen... that is going to happen," and when it fails to happen, you ignore it. You were very wrong, you said early start to the season, and we've had an unusually late start. It can't get more wrong than that. I hate to break it to you but it looks like your "astroMeteorology" has been debunked!


I don't know where you get all this, and you've "debunked" nothing. Astrometeorology has been around for a very long time and will continue to be as well. The season will extend well into fall this year as outlined in my forecast.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_AstroMet_*
post Aug 25 2009, 12:36 PM
Post #33







Guests








QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Aug 17 2009, 03:42 AM) *
The hurricane season came roaring in with 3 tropical storms active at once (Ana, Bill, Claudette), and after the tropics calming down a bit after Claudette, I expect activity to pick up once again, but then quickly come to an end as el nino's can cause hurricane seasons to end earlier than usual (2006, Isaac ended the season in early October). For my late summer update, I am making a few revisions to my forecast, making it more similar to my first forecast:

9-12 named storms (3 so far)
3-6 hurricanes (1 so far)
1-2 major hurricanes (0 so far)

Landfalls in US:
2-4 tropical storms
0-2 hurricanes (in GOM or SE coast)


Looks about right for the climate I've seen astronomically NYC. We should see this season extend well into autumn before we see a return to El Nino conditions later this year as the Earth transits closer to the Sun by late December/early January.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Aug 25 2009, 01:23 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 33,124
Joined: 29-August 08
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(AstroMet @ Aug 25 2009, 01:36 PM) *
Looks about right for the climate I've seen astronomically NYC. We should see this season extend well into autumn before we see a return to El Nino conditions later this year as the Earth transits closer to the Sun by late December/early January.

Agreed, I also see this summer being extended into fall, then we should have a rather warm fall, and afterwards I am expecting a slightly delayed start to winter.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Aug 28 2009, 01:06 AM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 17,845
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Aug 25 2009, 02:23 PM) *
Agreed, I also see this summer being extended into fall, then we should have a rather warm fall, and afterwards I am expecting a slightly delayed start to winter.


Bill was a major hurricane. Reached CAT 4 status.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Sep 20 2009, 04:57 AM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 33,124
Joined: 29-August 08
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Aug 17 2009, 06:42 AM) *
The hurricane season came roaring in with 3 tropical storms active at once (Ana, Bill, Claudette), and after the tropics calming down a bit after Claudette, I expect activity to pick up once again, but then quickly come to an end as el nino's can cause hurricane seasons to end earlier than usual (2006, Isaac ended the season in early October). For my late summer update, I am making a few revisions to my forecast, making it more similar to my first forecast:

My forecast is not performing well so far... Surprisingly 2009 was even less active than 2006 so far!

Aug 17 forecast (actual so far):

9-12 named storms (6 so far)
3-6 hurricanes (2 so far)
1-2 major hurricanes (2 so far)

Landfalls in US:
2-4 tropical storms (1 so far)
0-2 hurricanes (none)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

2 Pages V  < 1 2
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 19th December 2014 - 07:07 PM