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> Long Range Winter 2009/2010 Outlooks- Plains/MW/OV/GL
Removed_Member_max140_*
post Jul 17 2009, 11:56 AM
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Post your winter 09-10' outlooks and discuss this coming winter.
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BtownWxWatcher
post Jul 17 2009, 11:59 AM
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Overall I see a Weak to Moderate El Nino for this winter.


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Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niņo? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
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Removed_Member_max140_*
post Jul 17 2009, 12:02 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Jul 17 2009, 12:59 PM) *
Overall I see a Weak to Moderate El Nino for this winter.

yea, but that isnt good for the upper and western midwest
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Removed_Member_max140_*
post Jul 17 2009, 12:09 PM
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East North central Midwest
Average to Above average temperatures
Average Snowfall.

West North central Midwest
Above average temperatures.
Bellow average Snowfall.




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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Jul 17 2009, 12:42 PM
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We really only need one winter thread IMO but if the mods want separate ones than so be it I guess rolleyes.gif
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Removed_Member_max140_*
post Jul 17 2009, 12:43 PM
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QUOTE(OHweather2 @ Jul 17 2009, 01:42 PM) *
We really only need one winter thread IMO but if the mods want separate ones than so be it I guess rolleyes.gif

but the other thread is for the north east.
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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Jul 17 2009, 01:11 PM
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QUOTE(max140 @ Jul 17 2009, 01:43 PM) *
but the other thread is for the north east.


Ya, I know but there can be one big thread for all care (I'd actually prefere it) because it's a pain in the *bleep* to have to post in two different threads, two completely different discussions and what not. Especially because the northeast thread will be 10 times more active because winter there gets so much more fan-fair than it does here even though recently winter there has hardly been anything interesting and winter here is 10 times more harsh most years with colder temps and more snow.
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Removed_Member_CoolerByTheLake_*
post Jul 18 2009, 09:42 PM
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Mods close thos thread and consolidate it to one thread. This is to much.

Max, your maps are good but don't expect to see normal snow for the east north central, You will be lucky to see 75% of normal. It's gonna be dry winter this year.
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kab2791
post Jul 18 2009, 10:29 PM
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QUOTE(CoolerByTheLake @ Jul 18 2009, 11:42 PM) *
Mods close thos thread and consolidate it to one thread. This is to much.

Max, your maps are good but don't expect to see normal snow for the east north central, You will be lucky to see 75% of normal. It's gonna be dry winter this year.


Wow, its quite early to be saying that kind of percentage, though I do think the snowfall will be slightly below average in Michigan. As long as I get a couple nice snowstorms (>5") snow, and less rain/warmups, I'd be happy.


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Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor


DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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Removed_Member_max140_*
post Jul 19 2009, 12:36 PM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ Jul 18 2009, 11:29 PM) *
Wow, its quite early to be saying that kind of percentage, though I do think the snowfall will be slightly below average in Michigan. As long as I get a couple nice snowstorms (>5") snow, and less rain/warmups, I'd be happy.

yea
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BriSr
post Jul 24 2009, 04:33 PM
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Here's my thinking for the winter with my models.

December
Mostly mild for the majority of region, exception being the Lakes, where it could end up being more seasonable to cooler. Couple strong, windy storms around the 7th, and 21st. A couple strong cold shots around 16th, and 24th. A very mild end to the month.

January
Very mild start to the month, but winter will set in with on 5th and be a very cold, stormy, and windy 3 weeks. Around the 25th, look for a cold, clipper pattern. Your gonna love this month.

February
Continued clipper pattern becoming milder around the 6th with some rain, snow, ice for about a week. Then back over to a colder, clipper pattern for a week. Then look for quick changes in the pattern until about the 25th, when a strong system moves in, and cuts off over the Lakes to end the month.




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Avatar: Winter in the Northland of MN.

Photo courtesy Dennis O'Hara of Northern Images Photography. Browse photos of the Duluth, and the surrounding area. Live web cam, also.

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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Jul 24 2009, 04:49 PM
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Good luck with your forecast it would be nice if it verified...given the Nino I would lean warm for this region but hey you never know smile.gif
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kab2791
post Jul 25 2009, 07:55 PM
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QUOTE(BriSr @ Jul 24 2009, 06:33 PM) *
Here's my thinking for the winter with my models.

December
Mostly mild for the majority of region, exception being the Lakes, where it could end up being more seasonable to cooler. Couple strong, windy storms around the 7th, and 21st. A couple strong cold shots around 16th, and 24th. A very mild end to the month.

January
Very mild start to the month, but winter will set in with on 5th and be a very cold, stormy, and windy 3 weeks. Around the 25th, look for a cold, clipper pattern. Your gonna love this month.

February
Continued clipper pattern becoming milder around the 6th with some rain, snow, ice for about a week. Then back over to a colder, clipper pattern for a week. Then look for quick changes in the pattern until about the 25th, when a strong system moves in, and cuts off over the Lakes to end the month.


Hey you know what, some of your forecast sounds like what happened last year, especially what you said about late Dec and Jan. Your forecast is okay with me. I never make predictions though about a season a few months away because I have no idea what will happen. All we have is indications to what happeed in past la nina to el nino winters. Remember when many said that this summer in the midwest would be hot; well we all know how that forecast ended up. laugh.gif


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University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor


DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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Removed_Member_CoolerByTheLake_*
post Jul 26 2009, 12:49 AM
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QUOTE(BriSr @ Jul 24 2009, 05:33 PM) *
Here's my thinking for the winter with my models.

December
Mostly mild for the majority of region, exception being the Lakes, where it could end up being more seasonable to cooler. Couple strong, windy storms around the 7th, and 21st. A couple strong cold shots around 16th, and 24th. A very mild end to the month.

January
Very mild start to the month, but winter will set in with on 5th and be a very cold, stormy, and windy 3 weeks. Around the 25th, look for a cold, clipper pattern. Your gonna love this month.

February
Continued clipper pattern becoming milder around the 6th with some rain, snow, ice for about a week. Then back over to a colder, clipper pattern for a week. Then look for quick changes in the pattern until about the 25th, when a strong system moves in, and cuts off over the Lakes to end the month.


Amazing that it's July and you already have dates and stroms and patterns down to a science. Could you elaborate for me and others how you came up with this? How do you think in an el nino we are going to be that wintry and cold? I'm sorry to call you out on this but this has some wishing behind it. Prove the dates and science to me in the month of July. There is no way this verifies, sorry to call you out but show me proof.
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Removed_Member_CoolerByTheLake_*
post Jul 26 2009, 12:51 AM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ Jul 25 2009, 08:55 PM) *
Hey you know what, some of your forecast sounds like what happened last year, especially what you said about late Dec and Jan. Your forecast is okay with me. I never make predictions though about a season a few months away because I have no idea what will happen. All we have is indications to what happeed in past la nina to el nino winters. Remember when many said that this summer in the midwest would be hot; well we all know how that forecast ended up. laugh.gif


Most mets in spring including myself called for a cool summer and I even saud the hottest weather would occur in June and July would be below and August way below normal. Most pro mets called for a cool spring even Joe B.
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Jul 26 2009, 01:18 AM
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QUOTE(CoolerByTheLake @ Jul 26 2009, 02:49 AM) *
Amazing that it's July and you already have dates and stroms and patterns down to a science. Could you elaborate for me and others how you came up with this? How do you think in an el nino we are going to be that wintry and cold? I'm sorry to call you out on this but this has some wishing behind it. Prove the dates and science to me in the month of July. There is no way this verifies, sorry to call you out but show me proof.

I could be wrong but he or /she (sorry did not look) , has been learning Astrometeorology from Astro Met ...so they are probably calling this by what they see in the alignment of the different planets etc....

The most one can do is sit back and read it and make note of it and see how well the person has grown in the knowledge of what they been taught and learned...

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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Jul 26 2009, 01:22 AM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jul 26 2009, 02:18 AM) *
I could be wrong but he or /she (sorry did not look) , has been learning Astrometeorology from Astro Met ...so they are probably calling this by what they see in the alignment of the different planets etc....

The most one can do is sit back and read it and make note of it and see how well the person has grown in the knowledge of what they been taught and learned...

Yes that is the case. It's a he BTW
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Removed_Member_CoolerByTheLake_*
post Jul 26 2009, 04:55 PM
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Works for me...Still don't think we get a handle on things till Septemeber. I am still seeing a weak to mild event falling apart but not until late Feb.
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BriSr
post Jul 26 2009, 06:44 PM
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Yes, I'm working with Astrometeorology. Astromet turned me on to it, and so I decided to learn, and post what I see. Yes, I could easily misinterpret my models. But I was impressed with how accurate you can get with this method so far out in time. I don't look down on those whose use there own styles. Proof is in the pudding. Whether I end up being right or wrong, its all in the learning process. I put it here for all to see. Astromet has been doing this for years, and he gets much more involved than I do. There's a lot more to learn.

January is going to be the true Winter month this year. Dec and Feb are not so bad. (In this region, of course.) And because it is such a large area, I may not get it all right for everyone. The weather can differ quite a bit from the OV and the Upper Midwest. Just take into account your normals for your area. Winter is generally harsher up my way than down there.

Last winter was harsh around here, so I like the forecast I put out. It's not nearly as bad as last year.( Or good, depending on your perspective)

I did forecast the snowy, cold weather in Dec last year as well as the milder weather that ended the month. Also the bitter cold that hit in Jan. So I know it works.



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Avatar: Winter in the Northland of MN.

Photo courtesy Dennis O'Hara of Northern Images Photography. Browse photos of the Duluth, and the surrounding area. Live web cam, also.

http://northernimages.smugmug.com/galleries
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snowstorm madman
post Jul 26 2009, 07:27 PM
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I have been pondering my long range thoughts for this winter:

Based upon two points: What usually follows a unusually cool summer? A mild winter.? What do the analogs have to say about this? As my memory serves me it usually is a mild winter. So with the weak to mod ENSO event I believe overall the winter will end up average or slightly above average temp wise with slightly above normal precip.

If anyone has the analog data on years with a cool summer coupled with a weak to mod ENSO event, please post!!


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