Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

10 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Long Range Winter 2009/2010 Outlooks- Plains/MW/OV/GL
so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 26 2009, 07:32 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,642
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(BriSr @ Jul 26 2009, 08:44 PM) *
Yes, I'm working with Astrometeorology. Astromet turned me on to it, and so I decided to learn, and post what I see. Yes, I could easily misinterpret my models. But I was impressed with how accurate you can get with this method so far out in time. I don't look down on those whose use there own styles. Proof is in the pudding. Whether I end up being right or wrong, its all in the learning process. I put it here for all to see. Astromet has been doing this for years, and he gets much more involved than I do. There's a lot more to learn.

January is going to be the true Winter month this year. Dec and Feb are not so bad. (In this region, of course.) And because it is such a large area, I may not get it all right for everyone. The weather can differ quite a bit from the OV and the Upper Midwest. Just take into account your normals for your area. Winter is generally harsher up my way than down there.

Last winter was harsh around here, so I like the forecast I put out. It's not nearly as bad as last year.( Or good, depending on your perspective)

I did forecast the snowy, cold weather in Dec last year as well as the milder weather that ended the month. Also the bitter cold that hit in Jan. So I know it works.


Yes... i am also learning how to predict using astrometeorology. i have gotten the books and have just started!


--------------------
Tylor

Studying Meteorology
Millersville University
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
BriSr
post Jul 26 2009, 09:03 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,113
Joined: 18-January 08
From: Two Harbors,MN
Member No.: 12,681





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 26 2009, 08:32 PM) *
Yes... i am also learning how to predict using astrometeorology. i have gotten the books and have just started!

Glad to hear that. Keep up on your observations against what you see in your charts/ephemeris. You'll learn. Uranus's presence was strong this month in the lunar charts. It brings cold waves from the NW.


--------------------


Avatar: Winter in the Northland of MN.

Photo courtesy Dennis O'Hara of Northern Images Photography. Browse photos of the Duluth, and the surrounding area. Live web cam, also.

http://northernimages.smugmug.com/galleries
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 26 2009, 09:21 PM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,642
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(BriSr @ Jul 26 2009, 11:03 PM) *
Glad to hear that. Keep up on your observations against what you see in your charts/ephemeris. You'll learn. Uranus's presence was strong this month in the lunar charts. It brings cold waves from the NW.


I will keep that in mind... It actually sounds really interesting! Can't wait to learn more.


--------------------
Tylor

Studying Meteorology
Millersville University
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_CoolerByTheLake_*
post Jul 26 2009, 10:36 PM
Post #24







Guests








QUOTE(BriSr @ Jul 26 2009, 07:44 PM) *
Yes, I'm working with Astrometeorology. Astromet turned me on to it, and so I decided to learn, and post what I see. Yes, I could easily misinterpret my models. But I was impressed with how accurate you can get with this method so far out in time. I don't look down on those whose use there own styles. Proof is in the pudding. Whether I end up being right or wrong, its all in the learning process. I put it here for all to see. Astromet has been doing this for years, and he gets much more involved than I do. There's a lot more to learn.

January is going to be the true Winter month this year. Dec and Feb are not so bad. (In this region, of course.) And because it is such a large area, I may not get it all right for everyone. The weather can differ quite a bit from the OV and the Upper Midwest. Just take into account your normals for your area. Winter is generally harsher up my way than down there.

Last winter was harsh around here, so I like the forecast I put out. It's not nearly as bad as last year.( Or good, depending on your perspective)

I did forecast the snowy, cold weather in Dec last year as well as the milder weather that ended the month. Also the bitter cold that hit in Jan. So I know it works.


So are you in astromets camp when for the western lakes he see's a very mild winter and only about a real 2 wek period of winter and that's about it? He see's a powerhouse nino, do you? This astro stuff is neat and I'm sure has it's relevence, share your thoughts about Chicago-Detroit this winter.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
BriSr
post Jul 27 2009, 01:34 AM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,113
Joined: 18-January 08
From: Two Harbors,MN
Member No.: 12,681





QUOTE(CoolerByTheLake @ Jul 26 2009, 11:36 PM) *
So are you in astromets camp when for the western lakes he see's a very mild winter and only about a real 2 wek period of winter and that's about it? He see's a powerhouse nino, do you? This astro stuff is neat and I'm sure has it's relevence, share your thoughts about Chicago-Detroit this winter.

I do not know how to forecast Ninos. Someday.

This Winter won't be as cold as last year, which was very brutal up here. As I said, Dec will be on the milder side with some colder weather. Jan is when winter takes off, and the cold makes it farther to the south. Lake effect will be heaviest this month, as well. Feb will see winter mellow out a bit. Milder Dec, colder Jan, and avg to warmer Feb.

I didn't really look over Theo's forecast for the region. In fact, just read over it and it sounds pretty close to what I'm saying.





--------------------


Avatar: Winter in the Northland of MN.

Photo courtesy Dennis O'Hara of Northern Images Photography. Browse photos of the Duluth, and the surrounding area. Live web cam, also.

http://northernimages.smugmug.com/galleries
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
BriSr
post Jul 27 2009, 05:47 PM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,113
Joined: 18-January 08
From: Two Harbors,MN
Member No.: 12,681





QUOTE(BriSr @ Jul 24 2009, 05:33 PM) *
Here's my thinking for the winter with my models.

December
Mostly mild for the majority of region, exception being the Lakes, where it could end up being more seasonable to cooler. Couple strong, windy storms around the 7th, and 21st. A couple strong cold shots around 16th, and 24th. A very mild end to the month.

January
Very mild start to the month, but winter will set in with on 5th and be a very cold, stormy, and windy 3 weeks. Around the 25th, look for a cold, clipper pattern. Your gonna love this month.

February
Continued clipper pattern becoming milder around the 6th with some rain, snow, ice for about a week. Then back over to a colder, clipper pattern for a week. Then look for quick changes in the pattern until about the 25th, when a strong system moves in, and cuts off over the Lakes to end the month.

Modify the Outlook just a little.

December
Very mild the first week. Winter storm moves in 7th-9th with colder air behind. Warms up again with another storm 14th-16th with colder air behind that moderates some. Looks like a double hit 21st-25th. N areas first, then S areas. Wet X-mas snows for the S areas? Very possible. Then a very mild end to month. These systems have plenty of wind associated with them.

Dec still mild overall, but winter does make an effort.

January
The only thing to really add here is some warmer air moving in around 20th to bring temps back to more seasonable levels. Maybe even a little warmer in the S areas.

February
Nothing more add for this month.



This post has been edited by BriSr: Jul 27 2009, 11:29 PM


--------------------


Avatar: Winter in the Northland of MN.

Photo courtesy Dennis O'Hara of Northern Images Photography. Browse photos of the Duluth, and the surrounding area. Live web cam, also.

http://northernimages.smugmug.com/galleries
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_AstroMet_*
post Jul 27 2009, 06:13 PM
Post #27







Guests








QUOTE(BriSr @ Jul 26 2009, 04:44 PM) *
Yes, I'm working with Astrometeorology. Astromet turned me on to it, and so I decided to learn, and post what I see. Yes, I could easily misinterpret my models. But I was impressed with how accurate you can get with this method so far out in time. I don't look down on those whose use there own styles. Proof is in the pudding. Whether I end up being right or wrong, its all in the learning process. I put it here for all to see. Astromet has been doing this for years, and he gets much more involved than I do. There's a lot more to learn.

January is going to be the true Winter month this year. Dec and Feb are not so bad. (In this region, of course.) And because it is such a large area, I may not get it all right for everyone. The weather can differ quite a bit from the OV and the Upper Midwest. Just take into account your normals for your area. Winter is generally harsher up my way than down there.

Last winter was harsh around here, so I like the forecast I put out. It's not nearly as bad as last year.( Or good, depending on your perspective)

I did forecast the snowy, cold weather in Dec last year as well as the milder weather that ended the month. Also the bitter cold that hit in Jan. So I know it works.


By the way Brian, you did a good job on last winter in your region. I also agree with your outlook for this winter around the Great Lakes, and Upper Midwest. January 2010 is the month for winter this coming season.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
BriSr
post Jul 27 2009, 06:25 PM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,113
Joined: 18-January 08
From: Two Harbors,MN
Member No.: 12,681





QUOTE(AstroMet @ Jul 27 2009, 07:13 PM) *
By the way Brian, you did a good job on last winter in your region. I also agree with your outlook for this winter around the Great Lakes, and Upper Midwest. January 2010 is the month for winter this coming season.

Thanks, Theo.


--------------------


Avatar: Winter in the Northland of MN.

Photo courtesy Dennis O'Hara of Northern Images Photography. Browse photos of the Duluth, and the surrounding area. Live web cam, also.

http://northernimages.smugmug.com/galleries
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_CoolerByTheLake_*
post Jul 28 2009, 11:50 AM
Post #29







Guests








Winter should be very short and I mean very short this season so it is January or bust. But before we solidify that beleif in stone, thte trough pattern must break down, if not, this winter will be a bear. The fall will be the indicator, I am expecting the trough pattern to break down completelty in late August early Septemebr setting the region up for a spectacular fall right through Novemeber. I will issue a forecast in mid Septemebr, a comprhnsive one outlining a month to month with date targeted occureneces of activity calender Snowfall is the key this winter nad it will be the lack of it.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Jul 28 2009, 12:54 PM
Post #30







Guests








Atown expects the trough to leave the lakes and retrograde back east the question right now is when...All I can say is I certainly hope so.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 28 2009, 01:08 PM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,642
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(Garrett @ Jul 28 2009, 02:54 PM) *
Atown expects the trough to leave the lakes and retrograde back east the question right now is when...All I can say is I certainly hope so.


I want to say around sometime in august. Most likely the middle of august.

What we need is the CAR to weaken and it seems as though it may be happening.


--------------------
Tylor

Studying Meteorology
Millersville University
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Jul 28 2009, 01:36 PM
Post #32







Guests








QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 28 2009, 03:08 PM) *
I want to say around sometime in august. Most likely the middle of august.

What we need is the CAR to weaken and it seems as though it may be happening.


Well the SE ridge as it is frequently called has been extremely weak for nearly a year now so I see no reason for it to smother those east of the Mississippi with another excessively mild and droughty winter again.

The ENSO definitely does not support the return of a Bermuda high from Hades.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 28 2009, 03:55 PM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,642
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(Garrett @ Jul 28 2009, 03:36 PM) *
Well the SE ridge as it is frequently called has been extremely weak for nearly a year now so I see no reason for it to smother those east of the Mississippi with another excessively mild and droughty winter again.

The ENSO definitely does not support the return of a Bermuda high from Hades.


Attached File  sat_wv_hem_loop_12.gif ( 120.93K ) Number of downloads: 3


Here you go...This is what we have to play with right now. We have an area of high pressure west of Greenland putting us not fully in a trough but not fully in a ridge which is happening right now. We have a broad trough right over the area with the main focus towards western GL.

The CAR or SE ridge is expected to move. There is an UL to the south or south west of this CAR and is moving to the south. This will allow the CAR to relax and move back to its original location within the next week or two. So if you can stick it out for another week or so than you we shall be back to the old pattern of cool and periods of rain. The only thing that this UL will hamper is the tropics but i don't think anyone is complaining except the ones that like to track them. rolleyes.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html


--------------------
Tylor

Studying Meteorology
Millersville University
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_CoolerByTheLake_*
post Jul 28 2009, 10:03 PM
Post #34







Guests








QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 28 2009, 04:55 PM) *
Attached File  sat_wv_hem_loop_12.gif ( 120.93K ) Number of downloads: 3


Here you go...This is what we have to play with right now. We have an area of high pressure west of Greenland putting us not fully in a trough but not fully in a ridge which is happening right now. We have a broad trough right over the area with the main focus towards western GL.

The CAR or SE ridge is expected to move. There is an UL to the south or south west of this CAR and is moving to the south. This will allow the CAR to relax and move back to its original location within the next week or two. So if you can stick it out for another week or so than you we shall be back to the old pattern of cool and periods of rain. The only thing that this UL will hamper is the tropics but i don't think anyone is complaining except the ones that like to track them. rolleyes.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html


Cool wet period in a week??? I see some signs of a real summer push ( a little above normal) on or after the 8th of August lasting for a about a week. Seems like the ridge out wet will slide east at that time and that is when I expect the first of a couple of tropical type events to begin, the season will be short but around the 8th-14th is when I expect the first storm an atlantic storm to haed out over open waters into the north atlantic. I see a brief week( 4-7 days) of warmth and hopefully at that time we can get a major tropical event to take place and finally break this pattern so we can have a great fall and warmer winter. I'm banking on things to really shift late August into early Setember, I do not expect this pattern to continue beyond next month.

This post has been edited by CoolerByTheLake: Jul 28 2009, 10:06 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 28 2009, 10:56 PM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,642
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(CoolerByTheLake @ Jul 29 2009, 12:03 AM) *
Cool wet period in a week??? I see some signs of a real summer push ( a little above normal) on or after the 8th of August lasting for a about a week. Seems like the ridge out wet will slide east at that time and that is when I expect the first of a couple of tropical type events to begin, the season will be short but around the 8th-14th is when I expect the first storm an atlantic storm to haed out over open waters into the north atlantic. I see a brief week( 4-7 days) of warmth and hopefully at that time we can get a major tropical event to take place and finally break this pattern so we can have a great fall and warmer winter. I'm banking on things to really shift late August into early Setember, I do not expect this pattern to continue beyond next month.


The CAR will shift back east or just flat out weaken. Also to tell you the truth there can be no Tropical activity with SAL in the way and not only that but cool SST's and also there will be shear in the presence. So in a week we will begin to cool off and then after that is when we get into the pattern. Not saying it will be fully wet but considering every time we have had a trough come into the region we tend to get a wet period. Also if the high were to come east from the west it would then be replaced with a trough. There is still a +PNA for the whole time period. I don't tend to look at the NAO anymore. For the past month, the NAO has been forecasted to get closer to neutral it hasn't and has stayed negative.

Here is an animation of the troughs and ridges across both the north and the south (hemisphere).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intr.../z200anim.shtml

I don't see where the ridge or area of high pressure will come east? It looks to be staying in place

Here is another one
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intr...0_nh_anim.shtml

I must be missing something.
Attached File  sat_wv_hem_loop_12.gif ( 1.41MB ) Number of downloads: 0


Here is a WV. Do you see that swirl south of the area of high pressure affecting the east. That swirl, though slowly moving south to south west, is looking to go near the ITCZ so where are storms able form. There is also a decent amount of dry air over that area.

I can't get a map for shear over that area as i do not know where to get it.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jul 28 2009, 10:57 PM


--------------------
Tylor

Studying Meteorology
Millersville University
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Jul 28 2009, 11:18 PM
Post #36







Guests








QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 29 2009, 12:56 AM) *
The CAR will shift back east or just flat out weaken. Also to tell you the truth there can be no Tropical activity with SAL in the way and not only that but cool SST's and also there will be shear in the presence. So in a week we will begin to cool off and then after that is when we get into the pattern. Not saying it will be fully wet but considering every time we have had a trough come into the region we tend to get a wet period. Also if the high were to come east from the west it would then be replaced with a trough. There is still a +PNA for the whole time period. I don't tend to look at the NAO anymore. For the past month, the NAO has been forecasted to get closer to neutral it hasn't and has stayed negative.

Here is an animation of the troughs and ridges across both the north and the south (hemisphere).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intr.../z200anim.shtml

I don't see where the ridge or area of high pressure will come east? It looks to be staying in place

Here is another one
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intr...0_nh_anim.shtml

I must be missing something.
Attached File  sat_wv_hem_loop_12.gif ( 1.41MB ) Number of downloads: 0


Here is a WV. Do you see that swirl south of the area of high pressure affecting the east. That swirl, though slowly moving south to south west, is looking to go near the ITCZ so where are storms able form. There is also a decent amount of dry air over that area.

I can't get a map for shear over that area as i do not know where to get it.

These last couple posts really belong in the pattern thread in Current weather, not so much here...However..lets look at the steering currents and you can clearly see what is where..
Attached File  wg8dlm1.GIF ( 181.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Big time swirling high pressure in the Atlantic. That is your western Central Atlantic Ridge..Its also influencing the east coast as you can see the ridging along the coast..
The trough-over the great lakes where it has been now for about 1-2 weeks....
Like i said I think this aspect should be moved into the pattern thread...not so much here in a winter thread...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 28 2009, 11:27 PM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,642
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jul 29 2009, 01:18 AM) *
These last couple posts really belong in the pattern thread in Current weather, not so much here...However..lets look at the steering currents and you can clearly see what is where..
Attached File  wg8dlm1.GIF ( 181.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Big time swirling high pressure in the Atlantic. That is your western Central Atlantic Ridge..Its also influencing the east coast as you can see the ridging along the coast..
The trough-over the great lakes where it has been now for about 1-2 weeks....
Like i said I think this aspect should be moved into the pattern thread...not so much here in a winter thread...


I know... And i like to use those aswell! I was going to post them a series of them but it would be too much for me. Im kinda lazy!


--------------------
Tylor

Studying Meteorology
Millersville University
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Jul 29 2009, 09:43 AM
Post #38







Guests








QUOTE(CoolerByTheLake @ Jul 29 2009, 12:03 AM) *
Cool wet period in a week??? I see some signs of a real summer push ( a little above normal) on or after the 8th of August lasting for a about a week. Seems like the ridge out wet will slide east at that time and that is when I expect the first of a couple of tropical type events to begin, the season will be short but around the 8th-14th is when I expect the first storm an atlantic storm to haed out over open waters into the north atlantic. I see a brief week( 4-7 days) of warmth and hopefully at that time we can get a major tropical event to take place and finally break this pattern so we can have a great fall and warmer winter. I'm banking on things to really shift late August into early Setember, I do not expect this pattern to continue beyond next month.


Why must you curse the east so with a warm winter?

It's not very kind you know. Now, living where you live I can see why you might want a warm winter there but on the east coast we do things a lil differently. Most of us want a cold and snowy winter. rolleyes.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_CoolerByTheLake_*
post Jul 29 2009, 02:43 PM
Post #39







Guests








QUOTE(Garrett @ Jul 29 2009, 10:43 AM) *
Why must you curse the east so with a warm winter?

It's not very kind you know. Now, living where you live I can see why you might want a warm winter there but on the east coast we do things a lil differently. Most of us want a cold and snowy winter. rolleyes.gif



HA-HA I won't curse you...lol, I think this year you'll be in good shape. I honsetly see winter coming in brief firece spurts with 10 day periods of cold and snow but also followed by just as quick thaw type warmth and snow melting rains. The real big deal this winter will be flooding form NY through Jersey and into the Deleware Valley. The real firecracker month will be January, most the month should be active. Winter slow to arrive, then a solid 6-8 week season and then a quick flip to spring, nothing like this past spring. Snows should equate to above normal all along the east with paltry amounts and lot's of mild air invading the northern plains, mid west and great lakes, in particular the western lakes.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowstorm madman
post Jul 29 2009, 10:00 PM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,307
Joined: 24-January 08
From: Southern Indiana
Member No.: 12,966





QUOTE(CoolerByTheLake @ Jul 29 2009, 04:43 PM) *
HA-HA I won't curse you...lol, I think this year you'll be in good shape. I honsetly see winter coming in brief firece spurts with 10 day periods of cold and snow but also followed by just as quick thaw type warmth and snow melting rains. The real big deal this winter will be flooding form NY through Jersey and into the Deleware Valley. The real firecracker month will be January, most the month should be active. Winter slow to arrive, then a solid 6-8 week season and then a quick flip to spring, nothing like this past spring. Snows should equate to above normal all along the east with paltry amounts and lot's of mild air invading the northern plains, mid west and great lakes, in particular the western lakes.


Explain your 10 day spurt theory a little more in depth please. If the jet gets this active then there are bound to be some bombs develop.


--------------------
HEAVY SNOW ADVOCATE / SNOW STORM LOBBYIST
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

10 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 20th December 2014 - 06:41 PM