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> Long Range Winter 2009/2010 Outlooks- Plains/MW/OV/GL
so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 29 2009, 10:08 PM
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QUOTE(CoolerByTheLake @ Jul 29 2009, 04:43 PM) *
HA-HA I won't curse you...lol, I think this year you'll be in good shape. I honsetly see winter coming in brief firece spurts with 10 day periods of cold and snow but also followed by just as quick thaw type warmth and snow melting rains. The real big deal this winter will be flooding form NY through Jersey and into the Deleware Valley. The real firecracker month will be January, most the month should be active. Winter slow to arrive, then a solid 6-8 week season and then a quick flip to spring, nothing like this past spring. Snows should equate to above normal all along the east with paltry amounts and lot's of mild air invading the northern plains, mid west and great lakes, in particular the western lakes.


Im sorry but i love it... You for the longest time were predicting that areas in the east won't have a snowy winter or cold at that. Now all the sudden there is a change in your thinking. Why so??


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post Jul 30 2009, 12:03 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 29 2009, 11:08 PM) *
Im sorry but i love it... You for the longest time were predicting that areas in the east won't have a snowy winter or cold at that. Now all the sudden there is a change in your thinking. Why so??



Now I said the midwest not the east. Go look in the archives and you will CLEARLY see that. The southern jet should be more active and you should see more coastal storms. The losers will be the plains/mw/gl the winners will be the eastern seaboard and especially interior new england. It just will not be a locked in winter, things will vary quite a bit with 10-14 day periods of winter followed by thaws and foolowed by rains and followed by snows. It will be a fun winter, although I think an ice event or two is likely due to some real borderline temps. No doubt your part of the country is due, it has been a few years. I still want to see where we are at mid Septemeber though, simply to many factors not etched in stone to make a definitive call. If I ahd to bet the farm on something right now it would be the the easte getting the brunt of the action.
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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Jul 30 2009, 12:18 PM
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Well, something I thought about is how extreme the weather is across the country right now with the Jet Stream being further south than normal and the southern jet being further north.

Crrrrazzzy temperatures swings and the East and SE keep getting pounded with wave after wave of sever weather.

With the southern Jet Stream more active this year I can definitely see how the eastern seaboard would see the most action in terms of the frequency of storms whether they be ice, snow, or rain storms.
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snowstorm madman
post Aug 18 2009, 09:39 PM
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this thread is dead....no one knows!


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copper
post Aug 28 2009, 02:08 AM
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I'll beg for forgiveness in advance, because I am sure that you're bombarded with fall/winter predictions about this time of year. I live in southern Missouri, and the weather here can go from one extreme to the other in less than a day. I'm a cool weather guy and the past couple of weeks Mother Nature has been teasing me with lows in the 50's and highs in the 70's with low humidity. Is this a prelude of things to come? We had a so-so winter last year with a couple of good snow storms, but more ice than anything. I'm hoping for a repeat of (and have been ever since) of the 2002-2003 winter when we had 37.4 inches of snow for the season. Ahh, that was a good winter. Anyhow, your thoughts on this upcoming fall/winter and the effect of El Nino on southern Missouri would be greatly appreciated!!!
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Brian Reeves
post Aug 29 2009, 12:56 AM
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From 5 Eyewitness News Weather Team Minnesota Winter Forecast 2009-2010
I personally meet Dave Dahl at the Minnesota State Fair and asked him for his winter forecast 2009-2010.From Source:http://kstp.com/Weather/Meteorologist Dave Dahl

100% Accurate Forecast!!!! From Saint Cloud, Duluth, International Falls Forecast:will have below average snowfall, above average temps. From Minneapolis, Saint Paul, Rochester Forecast: Will Have below average temps, Above average Snowfall. The reason being is for the southern cities to be closer to the storm track this winter but last winter the storm track was further north. I still think accuweather winter forecast is a Big IF and Hype!!!! If you want an accurate forecast go to your local news weather team and asked them.
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wx140
post Aug 29 2009, 09:52 AM
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I was wondering if anybody here has the 2010 old farmers almanac and if you do can you post what type of winter they are forecasting for the great lakes region because I can't fing it anywhere Thanks
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post Aug 29 2009, 10:21 AM
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i heard that its being released to the public on august 31st
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Terra
post Aug 31 2009, 07:48 AM
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It's Aug 31st. Anything yet?


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post Aug 31 2009, 07:54 AM
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QUOTE(Terra @ Aug 31 2009, 08:48 AM) *
It's Aug 31st. Anything yet?

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/fr...nter-weather-be
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 31 2009, 08:05 AM
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QUOTE(Terra @ Aug 31 2009, 08:48 AM) *
It's Aug 31st. Anything yet?

The Farmer's Almanac (FA), not the Old Farmer's Almanac (OFA), has been released on August 25 (just about last week). I think that the Old Farmer's Almanac last year was released around September/October, something around that time period.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Aug 31 2009, 08:06 AM
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CrazyDon
post Sep 1 2009, 12:28 PM
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QUOTE(max140 @ Aug 31 2009, 06:54 AM) *


They said basically the same thing for the Pacific Northwest last winter, and we obliterated a century's old seasonal snowfall record with 98" of snow.

Can't help but feel their methodology is slow to catch on to a potential El Nino unless they're betting on atmospheric conditions lagging for much of the winter--which is a possibility but not one worth betting on wholeheartedly.

This post has been edited by CrazyDon: Sep 1 2009, 12:28 PM
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Leewxman
post Sep 1 2009, 08:55 PM
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QUOTE(CrazyDon @ Sep 1 2009, 02:28 PM) *
They said basically the same thing for the Pacific Northwest last winter, and we obliterated a century's old seasonal snowfall record with 98" of snow.

Can't help but feel their methodology is slow to catch on to a potential El Nino unless they're betting on atmospheric conditions lagging for much of the winter--which is a possibility but not one worth betting on wholeheartedly.


Agree wholeheartedly! With the low sunspot activity and an El nino along with what appears to be a favorable Atlantic setting up for the likelihood of the NAO being predominately negative, I just don't see how they could of derived such an outlook. In many ways it appears rather La nina'ish. The predicted dryness cracked me up.??. what's with that?

A couple of other Almanacs came out today and oddly enough, they were similar irt Temp. outlooks. hmmm. Makes you wonder doesn't it?. lol.

If you want a cold and snowy Winter in the MA or South, you had better hope they're off their rocker,( as they appear) or you're out of luck once again.
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Brian Reeves
post Sep 1 2009, 09:51 PM
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Minneasota Winter Outlook 2009-2010

From Noaa:Predicting Warmer Temps and moderate snowfall

From the Farmers Alamanic 2009-2010: Dry and very cold temps.

From 5 Eyewitness News Weather Team 2009-2010: Below Average Temps and Above Average Snowfall.

From Accuweather:Less snow and Less Cold
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jgeddings
post Sep 1 2009, 10:07 PM
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QUOTE(Leewxman @ Sep 1 2009, 10:55 PM) *
Agree wholeheartedly! With the low sunspot activity and an El nino along with what appears to be a favorable Atlantic setting up for the likelihood of the NAO being predominately negative, I just don't see how they could of derived such an outlook. In many ways it appears rather La nina'ish. The predicted dryness cracked me up.??. what's with that?

A couple of other Almanacs came out today and oddly enough, they were similar irt Temp. outlooks. hmmm. Makes you wonder doesn't it?. lol.

If you want a cold and snowy Winter in the MA or South, you had better hope they're off their rocker,( as they appear) or you're out of luck once again.


We are always out of luck in the south. we hardly even get a winter.


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CrazyDon
post Sep 2 2009, 12:19 AM
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QUOTE(jgeddings @ Sep 1 2009, 09:07 PM) *
We are always out of luck in the south. we hardly even get a winter.


I know your pain. Believe me, I do. Every once in a blue moon, you will get a decent winter. More often than not, however, everything has to be just right or it fails to pan out in the final hour. I've been there... it often times felt as though some demonic force was keeping the snow away. Seen the snow storms miss us to the north, miss us to the south, miss us to the west, and miss us to the east... warm punches of air gliding up from the gulf of Mexico pushing just far enough north to cause it to rain while everyone else just north of us got snow.

Yep. It would be a good idea for you to move to a more favorable spot when you get the opportunity.
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snowstorm madman
post Sep 2 2009, 07:40 AM
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QUOTE(jgeddings @ Sep 2 2009, 12:07 AM) *
We are always out of luck in the south. we hardly even get a winter.

move north tongue.gif


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pinkelephants
post Sep 2 2009, 07:50 AM
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i usually just read the threads on here....but because i have something useful, im going to finally post......

heres what i found.....

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/fr...nter-weather-be
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liweather13
post Sep 2 2009, 08:21 AM
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Hi Does anyone know what the winter is going to be like in southeast NY???

Please reply!!

Thanks,

Tyler


http://nyweather.ning.com/


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post Sep 2 2009, 08:28 AM
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QUOTE(jgeddings @ Sep 1 2009, 11:07 PM) *
We are always out of luck in the south. we hardly even get a winter.

your not supposed to have winter, if you want winter move north.
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