97/98 winter? Options

[mikesnow23]

what was so good about the 97/98 winter i can't find anything on it and people say this winter will be like the 97/98 winter. also is that good for the southeast?

[Ackman]

what was so good about the 97/98 winter i can't find anything on it and people say this winter will be like the 97/98 winter. also is that good for the southeast?

No, 97/98 was HORRIBLE. Very few snowfalls. Extremely mild for most of the country. It seemed that all the snow events unraveled into cold rains.

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[mnwx]

I remember that winter quite vividly up here in MN. It was warm and dry. I hated it. There was a huge storm that developed in the Rockies that year and just pounded areas in Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas with blizzard conditions in October. I will never forget the disappointment I had when I learned it was going south of me. It will haunt me the rest of my life.

[snowguy716]

97/98 was a terrible winter here. It got off to a good start in November with decent snows and cold weather, but quickly turned around with unusual December warmth that melted much of the snow. Some snow fell during the month and by new Years it did get cold.. but even the first true Arctic blast of the season in early January couldn't keep the month below normal. February was the warmest ever for that month with temps up to 55˚F that melted all the snow.. which was then followed by an Arctic blast with several inches of snow that led to March being colder than February.

The rest March, April, and early May were very warm... it wasn't until Memorial weekend that a last blast of unusually cold air came down causing late season frosts and very cold weather. As is often the case in El Niños, the winter was very mild, but summer took its sweet time getting here (basically, the period between the snow melting and things getting nice and green is lengthened.. not great).

[Beck]

Depends on where in the country you live.

Regarding the Midwest & Northeast, yes, extraordinarily mild winter.
Here in the Southwest, El Nino pounded us with heavy, extensive, damaging winter storms.

That was a very strong El Nino though, not anything like the current one- this one is currently moderate, with only a slight chance of reaching strong.
The strength of the El Nino doesn't seem to always be a factor though, it's effects on US weather vary.

[snowguy716]

The stronger the El Niño is, the easier it is to predict its impacts since it tends to dominate all other variables when it is very strong.

But you also have to factor in the PDO, which can either enhance or mask the effects of El Niño (and La Niña as well). The PDO was negative all through the winter and spring this year and has been slightly positive (more a product of the El Niño than anything).. but is trending back towards negative again despite the strengthening El Niño.

This could mean many things.. but it will ultimately mean this winter is nothing like 1997/98!

If this El Niño does get stronger, it will look more and more like 1972/73... which was a strong El Niño despite a PDO that only went slightly positive during fall 1972 before going negative again during the peak of the El Niño.

But other variables are different this year than in 1972/73. The PNA was neutral to slightly negative for much of 1972/73 which is what allowed cold air to dump into the southwest. This winter the indications are for a positive PNA which favors a ridge across the west with the heart of the cold in the southeast.

On top of that, if the PDO does go negative again, it could stifle the excess rainfall that El Niño usually brings to the southwest.. much like 2006/07 which was the first El Niño in a long time to have a neutral to negative PDO.