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> Long Range Winter 2010/2011 Outlooks, All Winter Questions Here - Nov-Mar
Torontoweather
post Jul 14 2010, 07:51 AM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jul 13 2010, 09:18 PM) *
Using CPC i went and looked up all the La Nina Winters and this is what I came up with!

1954-1955
[attachment=98461:1955.gif]
1956-1957
[attachment=98462:1957.gif]
1962-1963
[attachment=98463:1963.gif]
1967-1968
[attachment=98464:1968.gif]

1970-1971
[attachment=98465:1971.gif]
1971-1972
[attachment=98466:72.gif]
1973-1974
[attachment=98475:74.gif]
1974-1975
[attachment=98467:1975.gif]

1975-1976
[attachment=98468:1976.gif]
1988-1989
[attachment=98469:1989.gif]
1995-1996

[attachment=98470:1996.gif]
1998-1999
[attachment=98471:1999.gif]
1999-2000
[attachment=98472:2000.gif]
2000-2001
[attachment=98473:2001.gif]
2007-2008
[attachment=98474:2008.gif]

7 out of 15 years were normal to above normal. Only two years were super warm across the whole nation and i am not quite sure but i think those were west based La Nina years and also strong La Nina years. If you eliminate those two years then you are left with 5 years that were normal to above normal and not anyone of those years besides the two that are excluded were warm across the whole nation as a whole.

Now, my personal opinion is that going by 1950-2009 and only having 15 years is really too small of a sample size to use to try and prepare any type of outlook if we are indeed heading into a La Nina.

So if we go back further and look at some other years...
1903-1904 was below normal across the NE and Mid Atlantic
1906-1907 was below normal in the NE and above normal in the Mid Atlantic
1908-1909 was above normal
1916-1917 was below normal to near normal
1920-1921 was above normal
1924-1925 normal to below normal MD north
1928-1929 normal to above normal (above normal only in three states in the NE) so basically normal
1931-1932 was a record warmest on the east coast
1938-1939 was above normal
1942-1943 was normal to below normal

So if we add the above years on to the 15 above you now come out with 25 years that were La Nina years. Adding the above normal years to the previous 5 you come up with 9 out of 25 years that were La Nina and ended up being above normal or slightly above normal and one year which was a record warmest...

So, even if we are heading into a La Nina ..history would favor more of a normal to below normal winter in the mid atlantic to the NE. Also we find the support for a La Nina where the whole nation is warm as a whole is generally limited to those 2 particular years. So the chances of a La Nina being warm across the nation as a whole are more of a rarity then an actual La Nina occurrence...

This is not a forecast just research for La Nina winters thru out history!


I believe you may have missed one or a few(I.e. 1964-65); here is a little reasearch I did concerning the data from 1950-2010:

If you look at winters(the December January February trimonthly of the SST anomalies in the equatorial pacific) since 1950, there have been 18 years where the December January February was considered in an El Nino state, there have been 20 years where the December January February trimonthly was considered in a La Nina state, and therefore there have been 23 years which have been considered in a neutral state(whether negative or positive neutral). Therefore, on average over the past 61 winters/years El Nino occurs once every 2.8 years, La Nina occurs once every 2.5 years and neutral conditions occur once every 2.17 years. If you want to just look at the past 21 years(since 1990), since that is about the time I have been around or so(give or take 4-5 years laugh.gif wink.gif ), then there have been 7 years where the December January February trimonthly was considered in an El Nino state, 5 in which have been considered a La Nina state, and therefore 9 in which have been considered in a neutral state. So therefore, recently, over the past 21 years, El Nino occurs on average once every 3 years, La Nina occurs on average once every 4.2 years and neutral conditions once every 2.3 years. Source
Therefore, we see that on average pretty much, either El Nino or La Nina occur once every 2-4 years and neutral conditions occur on average once every 2 years, but of course there have been years where 2 years or even 3 or 4 have been in the same state in a row. wink.gif

This post has been edited by Torontoweather: Jul 14 2010, 02:01 PM


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Torontoweather
post Jul 14 2010, 02:00 PM
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QUOTE
Latest Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values

Date: 14 July 2010

Average SOI for last 30 days: 8.52

Average SOI for last 90 days: 7.38

Daily contribution to SOI calculation: 23.08
Source

blink.gif Daily SOI rose to 23.08! 30 day SOI now at 8.52.


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NorEaster07
post Jul 14 2010, 02:09 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jul 14 2010, 03:00 PM) *
blink.gif Daily SOI rose to 23.08! 30 day SOI now at 8.52.


So in plain English we're heading towards a strong La Nina the more positive that number gets?


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Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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Torontoweather
post Jul 14 2010, 02:11 PM
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QUOTE(SkyPower @ Jul 14 2010, 03:09 PM) *
So in plain English we're heading towards a strong La Nina the more positive that number gets?


Well, basically as long as the SOI stays positive we could/should see the La Nina keep strengthening, and with numbers like these the La Nina could really strengthen. wink.gif


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post Jul 14 2010, 03:02 PM
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Attached File  3464.gif ( 24.26K ) Number of downloads: 8

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Torontoweather
post Jul 14 2010, 03:48 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jul 14 2010, 04:02 PM) *
Attached File  3464.gif ( 24.26K ) Number of downloads: 8



Whistling for what reason? unsure.gif Basically what that shows is a larger clump of the multi-models predicting a weak-moderate La Nina with a December-January (the real peak of the La Nina is in August-September)peak between -0.7 to -1.5, and then a smaller(yet still significant) clump showing a moderate-strong La Nina fore December-January with a peak between -1.5 to -2.0, then a clump of about the same size as the smaller clump(again, still being a significant clump) predicting a moderate-strong La Nina, predicting a moderate La Nina peak in August-September then rising somewhat quickly and being in a neutral state by December-January with anomalies ranging from +0.2 to -0.4. Basically if you averaged it out, it would probably come out to a mid-range weak La Nina(anomalies between -0.6 to -0.8) by December-January. For now, I am still going to stick with a weak La Nina forecast for December-January, and possibly February as well. The updated forecast from IRI should be interesting which should either come out tomorrow, Friday or early next week. wink.gif

As well, here is last months outlook from the EUROSIP model for region 3.4 which isn't really that different from the forecast issued for this months, and if anything for this month's outlook there is a bigger clump of models in the -1.5 to -2.0 range than the outlook from June, and both show the La Nina peaking sometime between August-September on average. wink.gif
Attached File  region_3.4_from_june_eurosip.gif ( 25.73K ) Number of downloads: 3

As well here are the other regions(except for region 1+2) from the July(this month's) outlook:
Region 3:
Attached File  3.gif ( 21.87K ) Number of downloads: 3

Region 4:
Attached File  4.gif ( 22.84K ) Number of downloads: 3

The models aren't in very good agreement for any of the regions for December-January(which is understandable as it is still 5-6 months away), however with region 3 they seem be slightly more consistent, with an average of probably a weak-possibly moderate La Nina by December-January, and for region 4, well it is similar to the outlook for region 3.4, it has the largest clump of the multi-models forecasting a weak-moderate La Nina state by December-January with anomalies ranging between -0.7 to -1.3, then two smaller(yet still significant) clumps of multi-models, one clump forecasting a moderate-strong La Nina state(in region 4) by December-January with anomalies ranging between -1.6 or so to -2.0, and the other smaller(yet still significant) clump of multi-models predicting a return to neutral conditions in region 4 by December-January with anomalies ranging between +0.3 to -0.4. Again, average of all models for the 3 regions would likely be a mid-high range weak La Nina with anomalies ranging between -0.6 or so to -1.0. wink.gif

This post has been edited by Torontoweather: Jul 14 2010, 04:21 PM


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post Jul 14 2010, 03:57 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jul 14 2010, 03:48 PM) *
Whistling for what reason? unsure.gif Basically what that shows is a larger clump of the multi-models predicting a weak-moderate La Nina with a December-January (the real peak of the La Nina is in August-September)peak between -0.7 to -1.5, and then a smaller(yet still significant) clump showing a moderate-strong La Nina fore December-January with a peak between -1.5 to -2.0, then a clump of about the same size as the smaller clump(again, still being a significant clump) predicting a moderate-strong La Nina, predicting a moderate La Nina peak in August-September then rising somewhat quickly and being in a neutral state by December-January with anomalies ranging from +0.2 to -0.4. Basically if you averaged it out, it would probably come out to a mid-range weak La Nina(anomalies between -0.6 to -0.8) by December-January. For now, I am still going to stick with a weak La Nina forecast for December-January, and possibly February as well. The updated forecast from IRI should be interesting which should either come out tomorrow, Friday or early next week. wink.gif

The whistling is because some of the clumping is moving towards neutral as well..I am not sure how you missed that? Also the eastern regions have leveled off while the western regions are now warming...and its only July my friend..That leaves Aug, September & October and November of which the latter two are the most important of the enso plumes..
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Torontoweather
post Jul 14 2010, 04:10 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jul 14 2010, 04:57 PM) *
The whistling is because some of the clumping is moving towards neutral as well..I am not sure how you missed that? Also the eastern regions have leveled off while the western regions are now warming...and its only July my friend..That leaves Aug, September & October and November of which the latter two are the most important of the enso plumes..


Of course I didn't miss it, you must have missed that part in my post where I discussed the two smaller (yet still significant) clumps of multi-models, with one showing moderate-strong La Nina conditions and the other clump showing neutral conditions. wink.gif As well, where can I see that western regions are warming because per the latest weeklies all regions dropped, while region 4 didn't drop significantly as the others it did not warm, and region 3.4 which could be considered a western region dropped as well. unsure.gif huh.gif wink.gif


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post Jul 14 2010, 04:12 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jul 14 2010, 04:10 PM) *
Of course I didn't miss it, you must have missed that part in my post where I discussed the two smaller (yet still significant) clumps of multi-models, with one showing moderate-strong La Nina conditions and the other clump showing neutral conditions. wink.gif As well, where can I see that western regions are warming because per the latest weeklies all regions dropped, while region 4 didn't drop significantly as the others it did not warm, and region 3.4 which could be considered a western region dropped as well. unsure.gif huh.gif wink.gif

Not referring to the weeklies smile.gif

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Torontoweather
post Jul 14 2010, 04:19 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jul 14 2010, 05:12 PM) *
Not referring to the weeklies smile.gif


Then to what are you referring?

This post has been edited by Torontoweather: Jul 14 2010, 04:22 PM


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post Jul 14 2010, 04:30 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jul 14 2010, 04:19 PM) *
Then to what are you referring?

Was referring to the Dailies!
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Torontoweather
post Jul 14 2010, 04:45 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jul 14 2010, 05:30 PM) *
Was referring to the Dailies!

Ah I see. Can you post the site where you can view the dailies? Thanks


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post Jul 14 2010, 04:48 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jul 14 2010, 04:45 PM) *
Ah I see. Can you post the site where you can view the dailies? Thanks

No can do...its a pay site...I can tell you that it is stormvista though!

This post has been edited by AtownWxWatcher: Jul 14 2010, 04:49 PM
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Torontoweather
post Jul 14 2010, 04:54 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jul 14 2010, 05:48 PM) *
No can do...its a pay site...I can tell you that it is stormvista though!


I see. Well, I won't pay for it that's for sure but thanks for letting me know wink.gif , but we'll see if today's dailies affect the weeklies enough to make region 3.4 and 4 rise, and region 1+2 and 3 to "level off" as you say. wink.gif
BTW, you still didn't really let anyone know what that one main factor was, which sudden;y changed an made you change your forecast from El Nino to positive-neutral?


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Torontoweather
post Jul 14 2010, 05:03 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jul 14 2010, 05:48 PM) *
No can do...its a pay site...I can tell you that it is stormvista though!


I can see daily SST's on a page from Environment Canada, but it does not zoom into the pacific, as it just shows the whole world so it is difficult to analyze it from day to dy, but tomorrow when an update os the SST anomalies comes out fromSource, I'll give it a check and see if SST anomalies did indeed rise slightly from Monday. wink.gif


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snowguy716
post Jul 14 2010, 05:15 PM
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http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal.../30daysoivalues

That is the website for the daily SOI values for the past 30 days as well as the 30 and 90 day averages.
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Torontoweather
post Jul 14 2010, 05:20 PM
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QUOTE(snowguy716 @ Jul 14 2010, 06:15 PM) *
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal.../30daysoivalues

That is the website for the daily SOI values for the past 30 days as well as the 30 and 90 day averages.


I know, I have been posting that for awhile now, and have it bookmarked, but it isn't the daily SST's, but thanks for trying anyway. wink.gif


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snowguy716
post Jul 14 2010, 06:06 PM
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Btown: Looking back at La Niņa winters going back as far as 1874, I just haven't seen events like the winters of 1998/99, 1999/2000, or 2005/06. They were odd behaved La Niņas.

There is a correlation between the Indian Ocean Dipole and the ENSO phase. In fact, it is probably one of the strongest climate connections on the globe. The way the winds operate int he tropics during an ENSO event tend to allow warm water to pool up in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.. but strong low level easterlies draw up cold in the eastern Indian Ocean. Warm water than banks up against Africa and pulls the normal monsoonal moisture further west than normal.

This is the positive IOD. During the negative IOD, which is typically associated with La NIņa events, faster than normal easterlies in the ENSO zones draw up cold water there and pool the warm water in the western Pacific and eastern Indian ocean which is then forced by wind patterns into the central Pacific and central South Pacific, helping to form the well known negative PDO SST signature of a tongue of warm water surrounded by cold.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/

What has been significant is that the IOD has been persistently positive since the early 1990s. We don't know why this is the case, but it has altered global weather patterns. Some tie it to human caused global warming... it is stated on that website that in 2008, a 3rd consecutive positive IOD event occurred which was very unusual.. with positive events in the 2005/06 weak La Niņa, 2006/07 moderate El Niņo and again in the moderate 2007/08 La Niņa. The IOD did look more negative during the winter of 2007/08, but again during the summer of '08 neutral conditions prevailed and a positive IOD event occurred.

So, again.. there is a correlation and since 1998/99, 1999/2000, 2000/01, and 2005/06 are unique in the record, it's kind of silly to use them in a general analog package unless you think conditions will be similar this winter with a positive IOD and a generally positive index for the NAO, AO, and PNA. (though 2000/01 and 2005/06 were +PNA/-AO/-NAO)
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Weatherjunkie
post Jul 14 2010, 07:48 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jul 14 2010, 04:02 PM) *
Attached File  3464.gif ( 24.26K ) Number of downloads: 8



There is an interesting area around the Dateline and stretching to 170W with anomalous westerlies developing over the past few days. There has been a weakening of the anomalous easterlies we've been seeing all spring/summer from the stratosphere straight on down to the surface in this area. For what reason, I'm not 100% sure about at the moment. However, it appears there has been a disruption with the Walker Circulation as southerly surface winds scrape against the African coast and 850s pour in fom the east in the Indian Ocean while multiple small surface LP areas develop out of the tropical WPac and propagate poleward. Colder air temp anomalies are appearing along the equator along with westerly winds anomalies near the aforementioned region, and I suspect it has something to do with the -QBO which has facilitated the development of the Nina. It appears that the downward propagating easterlies have subsided in terms of making it down to the troposphere in that area. In the troposphere there has been some stronger developments with a N Pac HP in the subtropical region and responding to that we have anomalous westerlies along the equatorial regions with LP development.

Looking at the TAO maps we can see some subsurface warmth along with what appears to be a weak WWB developing in near the area mentioned above. We'll see....

QUOTE(snowguy716 @ Jul 14 2010, 07:06 PM) *
Btown: Looking back at La Niņa winters going back as far as 1874, I just haven't seen events like the winters of 1998/99, 1999/2000, or 2005/06. They were odd behaved La Niņas.

There is a correlation between the Indian Ocean Dipole and the ENSO phase. In fact, it is probably one of the strongest climate connections on the globe. The way the winds operate int he tropics during an ENSO event tend to allow warm water to pool up in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.. but strong low level easterlies draw up cold in the eastern Indian Ocean. Warm water than banks up against Africa and pulls the normal monsoonal moisture further west than normal.

This is the positive IOD. During the negative IOD, which is typically associated with La NIņa events, faster than normal easterlies in the ENSO zones draw up cold water there and pool the warm water in the western Pacific and eastern Indian ocean which is then forced by wind patterns into the central Pacific and central South Pacific, helping to form the well known negative PDO SST signature of a tongue of warm water surrounded by cold.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/

What has been significant is that the IOD has been persistently positive since the early 1990s. We don't know why this is the case, but it has altered global weather patterns. Some tie it to human caused global warming... it is stated on that website that in 2008, a 3rd consecutive positive IOD event occurred which was very unusual.. with positive events in the 2005/06 weak La Niņa, 2006/07 moderate El Niņo and again in the moderate 2007/08 La Niņa. The IOD did look more negative during the winter of 2007/08, but again during the summer of '08 neutral conditions prevailed and a positive IOD event occurred.

So, again.. there is a correlation and since 1998/99, 1999/2000, 2000/01, and 2005/06 are unique in the record, it's kind of silly to use them in a general analog package unless you think conditions will be similar this winter with a positive IOD and a generally positive index for the NAO, AO, and PNA. (though 2000/01 and 2005/06 were +PNA/-AO/-NAO)


The IOD has a nice correlation with the Walker Cell. However, there are exceptions which you have noted, but for now it does appear that the IOD is neutral transitionig towards negative (until very recently). As stated above, there has been some anomalous activity regarding the wind patterns that may change the overall mean state of the winds if they keep up.

I wouldn't quite toss out those analogues as none are absolutely perfect. Some still look pretty good regarding the rest of the Pacific/globe. There is still time for things to change though. Careful monitoring will be needed in the near term as a few things are starting to catch my eye.

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Jul 14 2010, 08:04 PM


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post Jul 15 2010, 11:50 AM
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Will JB be releasing a preliminary winter outlook this month?


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