Nov 5-7 MidAtl/NE Storm, Closed - Use OBS Thread Options

[NYCSuburbs]

There has been a storm on the GFS for a few days somewhere during this time period. The 18z GFS shows a coastal stalling near North Carolina, 00z GFS is slow with this storm, keeping it in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, while the 06z GFS barely shows anything. These runs do agree on a -NAO, however the 00z GFS has a very negative NAO.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Nov 3 2009, 09:23 PM

[NYCSuburbs]

This storm is back on the 00z GFS:





The 06z GFS only has a trough in this time period, with a storm in the 4th to 6th.

The NAO is forecasted to be negative by this time period according to the 00z GFS, but positive according to the 06z GFS.

[AtownWxWatcher]

It would appear that 6 Z has a FROPA go thru the area and then tries to fire a low up along the coast...

[yankees]

It would appear that 6 Z has a FROPA go thru the area and then tries to fire a low up along the coast...

Yes it does look liken that but it looks like some very cold air comes in behind the cold front.

[NYCSuburbs]

Yes it does look liken that but it looks like some very cold air comes in behind the cold front.

It sure does, the rest of that run has the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic under a trough.

[wsushox1]

Coldest air of the season for most folks.

[LoveNYCSnow]

doesn't look like much of a storm but turning very cold around this timeframe.

[AtownWxWatcher]

Storm potential according to 12 Z GFS would be around late on the 7th into the 8th..ATM it is south and east and is so long range that it might not be there next run..

[NYCSuburbs]

This returns on the 06z GFS as a coastal low:

[Removed_Member_CTWeatherStorm_*]

Any update on this storm per latest models?

[AtownWxWatcher]

Any update on this storm per latest models?

ECM does not go out that far...

[NYCSuburbs]

ECM does not go out that far...

So far it's 2 straight runs that the GFS has this as a coastal. Of course it will change as this is in the long range, but it will be interesting to see how the GFS trends with this storm.

[AtownWxWatcher]

So far it's 2 straight runs that the GFS has this as a coastal. Of course it will change as this is in the long range, but it will be interesting to see how the GFS trends with this storm.

The bad news...




Cold comes in after the storm pulls out...

[Mike W IN herkim...]

The bad news...




Cold comes in after the storm pulls out...

This is the same hr they show decent precip in the northeast.. Run shows frozen precip for western and central ny..

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Oct 26 2009, 04:27 PM

[AtownWxWatcher]

This is the same hr they show decent precip in the northeast.. Run shows snow for western and central ny..

I would have to disagree I am afraid. As much as i love snow...By the time the cold air comes in the storm is pulling away..
Ensemble mean is at complete opposition with the operational as well..


As you can see by the image above... Basically looking at a positive NAO & a positive EPO and a Positive PNA..This does not really bode well for any snowfall....

[yankees]

ECM does not go out that far...

Well looks as if the storm remains above 1000 and is fairly weak. The other bad thing is there is no High in place to the north to funnel more cold air and keep the storm off the coast. Now luckly the storm still is far enough off the coast for snow inland as the surface at hour 264 is below freezing north of the city. The other bad thing is the NAO is positive PNA is negative during this time. The only other saving grace is that a deep trough is in place on the east coast at the time of the storm this is the only reason we have enough cold air in place for snow on this run.

250s

The bad news...




Cold comes in after the storm pulls out...

Looks as if though at 264 or as the storm pulls away the surface is cold enough for snow north of NYC and there is still plently of precip for a decent snow event. Also at the hour you posted it still remains cold enough at 850s and 540s for snow.

Surface




540

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[Mike W IN herkim...]

I would have to disagree I am afraid. As much as i love snow...By the time the cold air comes in the storm is pulling away..
Ensemble mean is at complete opposition with the operational as well..


As you can see by the image above... Basically looking at a positive NAO & a positive EPO and a Positive PNA..This does not really bode well for any snowfall....

Im just going by that 1 frame from the long range GFS lol Not by teleconnections.. At hr 252 there is between 1/4-3/4 inch of precip for western and central ny with 850's well cold enough and 2m temps below freezing..

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Oct 26 2009, 04:37 PM

[AtownWxWatcher]

lol im just going by that 1 frame from the long range GFS lol Not by teleconnections.. At hr 254 there is between 1/4-3/4 inch of precip for western and central ny with 850's well cold enough and 2m temps below freezing..

What you are over looking is that the precipitation that it shows at 252 hours is the precipitation that has fallen between 240 hours and 252 hours. In other words a 12 hr precipitation . And this is the temperatures at 240 hrs..


During that time period on the operational run this precipitation falls..


And it is by 252 hours that the temps on western areas are cold enough..


So all that precipitation falls BEFORE the temps become cold enough....

Not to mention the ensembles completely disagree with the OP at this point and time...

Now between 252 and 264 is when this amount of precip falls..


And it is during this frame that the temperatures crash between 252 and 264

[Mike W IN herkim...]

What you are over looking is that the precipitation that it shows at 252 hours is the precipitation that has fallen between 240 hours and 252 hours. In other words a 12 hr precipitation . And this is the temperatures at 240 hrs..


During that time period on the operational run this precipitation falls..


And it is by 252 hours that the temps on western areas are cold enough..


So all that precipitation falls BEFORE the temps become cold enough....

Not to mention the ensembles completely disagree with the OP at this point and time...

Now between 252 and 264 is when this amount of precip falls..


And it is during this frame that the temperatures crash between 252 and 264

lol ok thanks, i always thought the 12 hr precip starts at the hr..

[dalejr88]

lol ok thanks, i always thought the 12 hr precip starts at the hr..

As always things will change either fot the best or for the worst. lol