Dec 12 Southeast Winter Storm, Cogitation: Long Range (8-15 days out) forecast Options

[123]

Looks like some of the models are showing a possible wintry mix for the carolinas around this upcoming Saturday. Even Noaa and Weather Channel are mentioning wintry mix in their forecast discussions. Even though things can change a lot, its worth watching. We need the cold air to get here early and the storm system closer to the coast.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...WENT WITH HPC FAVORED GFS/ECMWF BLEND WEDNIGHT-SUN. H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY NE OF AREA WED NIGHT...LEAVINGZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AS BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS ERN NAMERICA. SFC LOW ALSO TRACKS QUICKLY NE...LIMITING MOIST NW FLOWINTO MTNS. STILL HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NC MTNSOVERNIGHT...PSBLY MIXING WITH THEN TURNING TO LGT SNOW BEFOREENDING. SFC HI PRES BUILDS OVER AREA THU-FRI WITH PCLDY SKIES ANDNEAR AVG TEMPS THU...BLO AVG TEMPS FRI. SFC HI MOVES OFFSHORE FRINIGHT-SAT AS A LOW DEEPENS IN THE GULF AND TRACKS E TOWARD THE LOWERSAVANNAH VLY. HI PRES CONT TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NE WITH WEDGEDEVELOPING AND AS MOISTURE TRACKS NE...POPS WILL INCREASE FROM S TON FRI NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THKNS PROFILES HINT THAT A WINTRYMIX WILL BE PSBL. KEPT IT SIMPLE ATTM WITH CHC RAIN MIXING WITH ANDTURNING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NC MTNS...N FOOTHILLS AND NWPIEDMONT...BUT A MIX APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE INTO UPSTATE SC AS WELL.WENT WITH CHC RAIN DURG DAY SAT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN...PSBLYMIXING WITH SNOW MTNS AND N ZONES SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INFROM THE N SUN BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHCOF RAIN ACROSS S TIER. TEMPS REMAIN BLO AVG.

This post has been edited by 123: Dec 6 2009, 08:20 PM

[123]

Hi. Im not sure how to delete this topic. Maybe a moderator can do it. Thanks