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> Cincinnati,Dayton area weather discussion, April 17th Weather
madmaxweather
post Dec 7 2009, 01:52 PM
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I will apologize again for the lack of updates but things should get back to normal with updates coming every other day. In the weather department we are seeing a cooler trend to the weather for the next 5-10 days. I will see no 75+ degree weather over the next 5-10 days. We will highs mainly in the 60's over the next several days. In regards to precipitation we will not see much in the way of rainfall over the next 7 days with only a slight chance of rain starting Wednesday night through Friday. The best chance of widespread rainfall will likely come late Friday into Saturday the way it looks right now. Overall the month of April will end below normal in temperatures and the month of May could start out below average. Thanks for reading and I will be back Sunday with another update!


This post has been edited by madmaxweather: Apr 16 2010, 09:35 PM


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snwlvr
post Dec 15 2009, 01:05 AM
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I am liking the look of snow chances this weekend. Hopefully they increase next week for some good accumulations!! I did not like the look of how warm the GFS got us for the Christmas storm, hopefully it will trend cooler.
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swohiowxnut
post Dec 16 2009, 08:18 PM
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QUOTE(snwlvr @ Dec 15 2009, 01:05 AM) *
I am liking the look of snow chances this weekend. Hopefully they increase next week for some good accumulations!! I did not like the look of how warm the GFS got us for the Christmas storm, hopefully it will trend cooler.

It would sure be nice to get a good base this weekend so it stays cold next week.
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Snow____
post Dec 18 2009, 11:46 AM
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nice max.. I hope we really do see 4 inches.. because the it is going right now it looks like clippers may be our only snow this season lol..


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Snow____
post Dec 19 2009, 01:46 AM
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nice update, I like it..


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sgtmaj
post Dec 30 2009, 12:37 PM
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QUOTE(madmaxweather @ Dec 28 2009, 11:43 PM) *
We had cloudy and cold day across the area with a few more light snow showers. We may see the sun for your Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 20's to near 30. Another weather system approaches the area late on Wednesday and that will bring some light snow with it. I do expect light accumulations. On Thursday some of that snow may mix with a bit of rain as temperatures warm above freezing. Colder weather comes in late Thursday into Friday with more snow. Again we may have some accumulations during that time period. There is still some uncertainty to the forecast starting late Wednesday through Friday. The computer models are all over the place still with the storm system for this particular weather system.I am pretty confident we will see mostly snow but the question remains. How much snow? We will hopefully have a good idea on that by tomorrow night.

The next big story will be the coldest weather of the season coming in for the weekend. Highs will only be near 20 on Saturday and highs only in the teens on Sunday. If we have a 3+ inch snow cover this weekend I think temperatures may struggle to hit 10 on Sunday while lows may be get below 0 during that time period. Right now I am quite conservative on the temperatures for the upcoming weekend so that may change! Thanks for reading!

I agree on the models being all over the place, one thing for sure it is going to be cold. I know in my area we get a lot of what you call up-slope now. With 10/1 ratio that can build up.


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uc_bearcats
post Jan 3 2010, 12:01 AM
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my thinking right now for the thursday storm is a huge swath of 3-6in stretching from kansas to ohio and somewhere in the middle a nice band of 5-10in.
i had a map to show my thoughts but it wouldnt upload right rolleyes.gif
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sgtmaj
post Jan 3 2010, 08:08 PM
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QUOTE(madmaxweather @ Jan 3 2010, 12:07 AM) *
lol if things work out the way their suppose to this week. With impulse one on Monday possibly giving 3 then 6-10 on Thursday I could be at or above my snow prediction for January. LOL

Henry Margusity is calling for Cincy to get 8 inches of snow due to the high snow ratios for Thurs and Friday time frame.


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sgtmaj
post Jan 11 2010, 08:51 AM
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QUOTE(madmaxweather @ Jan 11 2010, 12:06 AM) *
Well we are entering day 11 of the cold pattern and the colder then normal pattern should last most of the week even though temperatures will be warmer then they were last week. Highs should approach 30 degrees on Wednesday and that should happen again on Thursday-Saturday. There is a small weather system headed for the area on Monday that will bring another round of light snow to the area. I am expecting 1-2 inches of snow by late Monday night. That snow should arrive Monday afternoon. Then the slight warming trend begins on Wednesday!

There are questions to the forecast again for next weekend. The forecast models are all over the place with a powerful storm system that is forecated to come out of the Gulf of Mexico late this week into the weekend. This storm could leave us high and dry with temperatures in the 30's to rain and temperatures in the 30's and 40's to possibly a major winter storm that could bring heavy snow or a major ice storm to the area. I will update you on that as we work our way through the coming work week.

Last thing I want to address is my hot streak! Here I go!
1.Who said three-four days prior that we would have 1-3 inches of snow last Monday night? I did! Not the locals forecasters!

2.Who said 5-6 days prior to Thursday that we would have a decent snow event? I did... Not the locals!

3. Who said over a week ago we would go below 0 Saturday night? I did! Did the local forecasters? No...

I may be sounding cocky here but I have nailed this weather pattern for January and I have been red HOT on my forecast! I do hope that continues as head deeper into winter. Thanks for reading!

I agree!! And its okay to be a little cocky. Somtimes we have a diferent prospective than the local forecasters. I do worry about a major ice storm to your and our areas. I hoping I am wrong, rather deal with the snow than Ice. Ice causes a lot of problems.


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sgtmaj
post Jan 11 2010, 09:01 AM
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Here is the latest Euro and the Reason I worry about the Ice

Attached File  Euro_Next_Week.png ( 38.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


As for as I am concern you can take the GFS and throw it in the can. Since it change over in mid December, it has been all over the place. Most local forecasters use the GFS to make their predictions, and the number one reason why they are so wrong.


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ArmonkStorm
post Jan 12 2010, 07:38 PM
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So.... is this where all the Bengal fans are! biggrin.gif


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Average Seasonal Snow: 35"

Total Snow for the 09-10 Season--- 43.5"
Total Snow for the 10-11 Season--- 70.5"
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sgtmaj
post Feb 1 2010, 11:32 PM
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It may be to early but you got a little over 1.00 QPF for your area, this weekend. If it stays cold enough and some phasing this will be your storm. Had mine last Saturday.


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Snow____
post Feb 4 2010, 11:51 AM
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I'm so nervous.. I just have a gut feeling that I wont get those 5 inch amounts.. I'm think more like 2 maybe 3 inches.. anything over that I will be happy.


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Snow____
post Feb 4 2010, 12:01 PM
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whenever you get to read this.. what is your thinking of the storm early next week.


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madmaxweather
post Feb 12 2010, 11:14 PM
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Good Evening! Lets start by saying February has seen 15+ inches of snowfall along with temperatures around 7 degrees below normal. Right now I think the snowfall could be near 20-30 inches before this month is over. Also temperatures may very well end up nearly 10 degrees below normal before this month ends. A record cold and snowy February is in the cards right now. This Presidents Day weekend will be decent especially the first 2/3 of the weekend with highs generally in the mid to upper 20's under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The focus then turns to Sunday night- Monday. Right now the models still do not have a good enough consensus for me to issue a Level 1 winter weather alert. I will likely be able to take a stand on this possible Winter Storm tommorow. Tonight's guidance for example has 4+ inches for our region while another has 1-2. I hope the models can get a better handle of this storm system within the 12 hours. I will shoot out an update Saturday evening!

Lastly next week we will be stuck in the 20's with another snow chance possible late week. We have tons of time to watch that storm system but right it just bears watching! Thanks for reading!


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madmaxweather
post Feb 13 2010, 05:15 PM
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updated


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madmaxweather
post Feb 13 2010, 11:59 PM
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Are you ready for round 3 of the snow??? Well the new data tonight is slamming us with heavy snow on Presidents Day! Snow will begin overnight Sunday and begin to come down hard during the morning and afternoon hours on Monday. I would not be surprised right now to see someone nearby get a foot of snow by Tuesday morning. We will have wrap around snows on Tuesday and that could create another 1-2 inches during the day on Tuesday. Right now I am forecasting a total of 6-10 inches of snow by Tuesday evening with local amounts in near a foot. I will have a revised forecast Sunday morning and there may be some minor tweaks to the snow totals throughout the day on Sunday.
The rest of the week after we get through the first part of the week looks cold and guess what??? The models are hinting at another round of snow coming late week. Round 4 coming??? Folks are setting the table for one of the snowiest months in a very very long time. I am going to try to pull some records within the next week to see how close we are. Have a good Valentines Day! Thanks for reading!


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madmaxweather
post Feb 14 2010, 11:29 PM
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updated


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madmaxweather
post Feb 16 2010, 11:50 AM
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Long Post today!
We made it through the 3rd round of Wintry Weather in 10 days! Another 8 inches of snow fell across the region. Today we will have another weak upper level disturbance swing through later this afternoon and evening setting off periods of light snow. I expect maybe an inch or two of accumulation by Wednesday afternoon. So there is a chance the kids may be home again on Wednesday.

We are in a historic weather pattern right now that shows no signs of letting up. We have broken a 100 year record of snowfall for the month of February and that has happened in 10 days! We have had a season's worth of snowfall in 10 days! We are likely going to chase after the all time snowiest month which was in January of 1978 where we had 31.5 inches of snow. We are about 8-10 inches away from that record. We may shatter that record and we could end the month with over 40 inches of snow! We could also chase the record for the snowiest winter ever. I am trying to pull up the all time record. I have heard it is around 55-60 inches. I will work on getting an exact number. This weather pattern shows no signs of ending and will likely last through the first part of March. I am forecasting a BIG DADDY STORM sometime between the 27th of February and the 10th of March. This storm will be similar to the Superstorm of 1993 where it paralyzed the Eastern half of the United States. It may not be a Superstorm here but this storm will signal the end of this historic weather pattern. Within 3-5 days after that storm the winter season of 2009-2010 will come to and end and many of you will welcome Spring with open arms. Again we are seeing history something I will tell my kids and grandkids about. This winter for the entire United States will be remembered for years to come. We have had snow in Miami and several snow events across the deep south. We have had snow in all 50 states this winter and earlier this week 49 states had snow on the ground something that has never happened in history. Again this winter will end with a bang and it likely knock your socks off. Get ready because this is only the beginning!

Whats coming up next! I am expecting several more rounds of snow and it is going to get colder next week. We may highs struggle to hit 20 by the middle part of the next week. The next storm I am watching is for later this weekend. The models are all over the place in regards to this system. I am confident this will be another light -moderate event of snow across the region. Thanks for reading and the 7 Day has been updated!


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madmaxweather
post Feb 18 2010, 12:37 AM
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We had a decent day across the area with highs getting near 30 degrees. I am expecting highs in the low 30's for your Thursday! The next weather system will arrive late Friday into the day on Saturday. This system will be minor with around 1- maybe two or three inches of snow. Nothing compared to what we have been through the past 10 days. The next Big Storm is poised for Sunday night-Monday. The current forecast models are all over the place with this storm. I am pretty confident this will likely be another moderate to major winter weather event for the area. Right now the models have alot of sorting out to do when it comes to this storm. We may see some mixing issues such as sleet and freezing rain with this storm system. That was apparent this afternoon with the models. Then tonights models present a more southern track allowing for ample cold air to bring a moderate snow event to the region. With that said I will call for a chance of Wintry Mix on Monday. Beyond that we will get colder with highs probably only in the 20's behind that storm system. As I eluded too yesterday this pattern shows no signs of saying good bye till March. There will likely be another decent storm late next week into the weekend. Thanks for reading!


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