Lake Effect Snow Squalls., forecasts and observations Dec 9- Dec 12 Options

[players1]

there is a huge amount of numbers being thrown around for the LES event thats about to occur in the snow belts. Any further ideas or forcasts for the streamers can be posted here as to the Dec storm topic.

thanks.

[travis3000]

I am going to re-do my squall map tonight. Some areas may need an adjustment. Heaviest snows will fall between Orillia and Parry Sound. I am looking at some futures radar into the next several days, and it shows some faily potent and stable bands of snow. I think areas along the southern shore of Georgian Bay (Owen Sound, Meaford, Thornbury, Collingwood) and into Barrie are also at risk of significant snows as a band will set up coming onshore near Kinkardine and Port Elgin and extend east. The hardest hit locales could pick up 30-50cm out of this band Thursday and Thursday night.
Another potent squall will drift across Tobermory and over to Parry Sound/Huntsville. This squall will affect regions 200km away from Georgian Bay simply due to the very strong winds. This squall will also give between 30-50cm Thursday and Thursday night.

As we go into Friday, squalls will shift a tad north but remain potent. There are some locations (Tobermory, Bracebridge, Parry Sound and even north of there, etc) that will be affected by squalls right through into Saturday. This is where the potential is there for 70-100cm of snow by Saturday afternoon. Map coming tonight.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 9 2009, 02:30 PM

[wx140]

Here are some snowfall amounts that I think will fall with the lake effect storm over the next couple of days.

Kincardine 30-70cm
Port Elgin 30-70cm
Tobermory50-100cm
Bracebridge 50-100cm
Gravenhurst 50-100cm
Parry Sound 50-80cm
Collingwood 30-60cm
Barrie 30-60cm
Owen Sound 30-60cm

This will be a Lake effect event that we havent seen in quite some time for a widespread area.The strong winds will create blowing and drifting so visibility will be reduced.Places that will be getting the big snows please feel free to post pictures of the snow on the forum. I will update these amounts if needed.

This post has been edited by wx140: Dec 9 2009, 06:06 PM

[FreezerBurnt]

Do ya think some of that squall will reach North Bay???

Also since the North Channel is not frozen can places like Espanola,Massey expect snow also

[wx140]

Do ya think some of that squall will reach North Bay???

Also since the North Channel is not frozen can places like Espanola,Massey expect snow also

I think it is a possibility given that there will be strong winds during this event.

[cm023]

Tobermory50-100cm

If this pans out I think me and my dad just might be making the trip up to the cottage this weekend..... hopefully to finally get the sleds out.

[travis3000]

HUGE LAKE EFFECT EVENT ABOUT TO UNFOLD

Powerful squalls setting up overnight and lasting for days...


Get ready for snow, that is if you live near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as the lakes are ready to unload for the first big lake effect blast of this winter season. Winds will be gusting 40-60KM/H right through into Saturday morning, meaning the squalls will be long and capable of producing large snow rates. The winds will begin out of the WNW later tonight and continue in this direction for Thursday. They will at times shift into the W, allowing bands of snow to push 30-60K further north, but will come back south as winds will have a tad of a northerly component at times. (WNW). Here are some city by city accumulation expectations based on my own personal experience living in the Great Lakes region my whole life, plus various short range weather models, future radar models, etc. Remember, some of my city amounts will be different than the map. Map is only in general, If I think a big squall will extendi out hundreds of KM's then I will account for that in the city by city listing. In fact, some of the models show the squalls going as far east off GB as Ottawa and the Quebec border!

Goderich= 20-30cm
Kinkardine= 30-40cm
Port Elgin= 35-45cm
Dundalk= 20-25cm
Shelburne= 15-20cm
Mount Forest= 20-25cm
Alliston= 10-15cm
Orangeville= 5-10cm
Kitchener= 5-10cm
Northern GTA= Trace-5cm
Owen Sound/Wiarton= 40-50cm
Tobermory= 40-50cm
Meaford= 25-35cm
Barrie= 25-35cm
Midland= 50-60cm
Orillia= 40-50cm
Whitney= 20-30cm
Haliburton= 30-45cm
Gravenhurst= 45-60cm
Bracebridge= 60-80cm
Parry Sound= 70-90cm
Huntsville= 60-80cm
Byng Inlet= 30-40cm
Bancroft= 10-20cm

*locally, amounts of 100cm are possible in the black highlighted area of the map.  Squalls_ThursFri.jpg ( 226.64K ) Number of downloads: 18


This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 10 2009, 12:55 AM

[amanda3658]

HUGE LAKE EFFECT EVENT ABOUT TO UNFOLD

Powerful squalls setting up overnight and lasting for days...
Get ready for snow, that is if you live near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as the lakes are ready to unload for the first big lake effect blast of this winter season. Winds will be gusting 40-60KM/H right through into Saturday morning, meaning the squalls will be long and capable of producing large snow rates. The winds will begin out of the WNW later tonight and continue in this direction for Thursday. They will at times shift into the W, allowing bands of snow to push 30-60K further north, but will come back south as winds will have a tad of a northerly component at times. (WNW). Here are some city by city accumulation expectations based on my own personal experience living in the Great Lakes region my whole life, plus various short range weather models, future radar models, etc. Remember, some of my city amounts will be different than the map. Map is only in general, If I think a big squall will extendi out hundreds of KM's then I will account for that in the city by city listing. In fact, some of the models show the squalls going as far east off GB as Ottawa and the Quebec border!

Goderich= 20-30cm
Kinkardine= 35-45cm
Dundalk= 20-25cm
Shelburne= 15-20cm
Mount Forest= 20-25cm
Alliston= 10-15cm
Orangeville= 5-10cm
Northern GTA= Trace-5cm
Owen Sound/Wiarton= 40-50cm
Tobermory= 40-50cm
Barrie= 25-35cm
Midland= 50-60cm
Orillia= 40-50cm
Whitney= 20-30cm
Gravenhurst= 40-50cm
Bracebridge= 50-60cm
Parry Sound= 70-90cm
Huntsville= 60-80cm
Byng Inlet= 30-40cm
Bancroft= 10-20cm

*locally, amounts of 100cm are possible in the black highlighted area of the map.  Squalls_ThursFri.jpg ( 226.64K ) Number of downloads: 18

Thanks!! What do you think for Haliburton??

[Canadoo]

Thanks!! What do you think for Haliburton??

I was in Haliburton on the weekend and it was amazing the little amount of snow in town, and the 10-15cms in the highlands 20-30k north.

I'd put Haliburton village in between the bancroft-Whitney range, highlands will get more due to elevation and latitude

[players1]

sorry to say but this should be fun! The ski resorts are needing this and it will help alot!

[snowball]

Hey Travis just wanted to say nice map. It's the most accurate one I've seen yet regarding the squalls. I find mamy of the ones I've seen including the accuweather ones are not extending the range of the squalls far enough East.

For example, I'm in Kitchener and we seem to be getting the tail end of the heavy stuff tonight but we're definitely getting it. Windy as can be and lots of snow... I wouldn't be surprised if we got 10-15 out of the next few days at all.

This post has been edited by snowball: Dec 9 2009, 11:14 PM

[players1]

just absolutley brutal drive to work this morning. Nil visibility and lots of blowing and drifting. all roads on the east shore of Lake Huron are closed and lots of bus and school cancelations. That makes 2 days in a row for the kids up here. Must be nice for the kids and awful for the parents.

The snow was very heavy in Meaford but the closer i got to collingwood the sky started to open up and you could see the orange from the sunrise! Squalls are an amazing thing. i would imagine the sky here will fill back in and the drive home wnot be any better.

Be safe if your heading to this neck of the woods.

[players1]

still snowing heavily in collingwood. had stopped fror about an hour. it keeps coming and going never lasting more than 30-45 mins. i would venture a guess at about 10-12cms here. roads covered and blowing around alot.

[barrieON]

still snowing heavily in collingwood. had stopped fror about an hour. it keeps coming and going never lasting more than 30-45 mins. i would venture a guess at about 10-12cms here. roads covered and blowing around alot.

Not much of anything in Barrie. Occasional squall lasts no longer than 15 minutes. I'd say we've received no more than 2cm, most of which has blown off my driveway. It's been sunny the past hour or so.

[CrazyC83]

All I can say: don't even thinking about going along Highway 69/400 between the French River and Barrie, Highway 11 between Huntsville and Barrie or Highway 17 between Wawa and Thessalon. If they aren't closed, they will surely be a big-time nightmare to travel.

I think 120 to 150 cm (4 to 5 feet) is realistic in the Highway 400 corridor between Parry Sound and Port Severn if the bands stay in that area...

This post has been edited by CrazyC83: Dec 10 2009, 06:41 PM

[Astronomer]

All I can say: don't even thinking about going along Highway 69/400 between the French River and Barrie, Highway 11 between Huntsville and Barrie or Highway 17 between Wawa and Thessalon. If they aren't closed, they will surely be a big-time nightmare to travel.

I think 120 to 150 cm (4 to 5 feet) is realistic in the Highway 400 corridor between Parry Sound and Port Severn if the bands stay in that area...

I think you're correct on your estimated totals. There is a lot more to fall yet. From Environment Canada this evening (any emphasis mine):

Strong and cold westerly winds are producing Major snow squalls off of Lake Huron..And Georgian Bay. These are extending unusually far inland across Bancroft to Franktown. Zero visibilities in whiteout conditions from bursts of heavy snow and blowing snow are associated. Snow squalls are expected to be particularly severe and persistent from the Bruce Peninsula across Southern Georgian Bay into the Midland Orillia and Gravenhurst areas..Where up to 80 centimetres of snow are expected locally by late Friday. Further inland across Bancroft to Franktown local accumulations of 15 to 20 centimetres are quite likely tonight in the snow squalls.

A very strong and cold westerly flow will continue to generate intense snowsqualls extending well inland from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Very strong winds continue near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Dangerous whiteout conditions from blowing snow and very heavy snow are likely. A clap or two of thunder is also possible in the strongest snowsqualls.

Environment Canada will continue to monitor this developing situation closely. Further warnings may be issued as warranted.

This post has been edited by Astronomer: Dec 10 2009, 10:37 PM

[antimatter]

According to UncleE near Kitchener, he had about 25cm overnight, and is expecting more tomorrow. Wish it was coming East a bit more

[players1]

again an absolutley brutal drive into work this morning....cannot believe highway 26 isnt closed from Owen Sound to Collingwood. minimum 20cms last night and still snowing heavily from Meaford to Collingwood. Whiteouts and drifting were rampant. A normal 15-20min drive took 45 this morning.

Schools were closed or buses cancelled again today in most of Grey-Bruce. that makes it a 5 day weekend for the kids as they havent had any school since Tuesday.

[RodS]

According to UncleE near Kitchener, he had about 25cm overnight, and is expecting more tomorrow. Wish it was coming East a bit more

I can confirm that... I am about 20min west of Kitchener and it appears there is about 25-30cm on the ground. Roads closed all around my area for the second straight day.

[travis3000]

^ Amazing, these squalls look great on radar. I have a friend in Huntsville who received near 40cm last night alone in squalls. Bracebridge is closing in on 60cm! Parry Sound received 45cm last night, it has been brutal. Expect more snow today.

And Players can you let us know how much snow you receive when this thing ends tomorrow. I'm curious how much Meaford will get out of this. How much would you say so far since the squalls fired up Wed night?